Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

Gary Black said that at 500/share, 52B or 12% of stock will need to be purchased for inclusion.

 

[FrankSG]

Anyone have any idea when the next series of $TSLA LEAPS be available for trading?

Should be within the next few weeks. Jan'22s became available mid-September last year.

 

[FrankSG]

So stock offering is up to $5bn - dilution at 1% at todays price. If they sell at a SP of 1000, the dilution is only 0.5%.

Options that Tesla have:

1. Sell all now pre-inclusion
   1. Won't help inclusion
   2. May delay inclusion
   3. High squeeze 9/10
2. Never sell them
   1. Max squeeze 10/10
3. Sell immediately after announcement
   1. Squeeze 8/10
   2. Many will be bought by retail as SP will drop 5% and institutions not ready
4. Sell slowly during inclusion window
   1. Squeeze 7/10
5. Sell towards end of inclusion window
   1. Squeeze 9/10
   2. Minimum dilution at high SP
6. Sell post inclusion
   1. Max squeeze 10/10
7. Sell some pre, during or post inclusion
   1. Squeeze 9/10

So basically you're predicting a squeeze?

 

[RobStark]

OT: This is pure FUD. SpaceX competitor ULA uses Russian RD-180 rocket engines on their Atlas V rockets. Apparently, they will be replaced by engines produced by "sub-orbital" Blue Origin in 2021! LOL. Also, this -> Boeing buying Russian components for Starliner

With all the Russiagate MccArthyite conspiracy theories for the last 4 years, I would have thought that Russia represented a bigger national security threat than China. Someone *cough* ULA *cough* must have dropped a bag of cash on the congressman's desk

Supposedly Boeing stocks Russian engines and spare parts to last 6 plus years.

If Russia cuts them off they can get their own manufacturing up and running within those 6 years. The engineering is already done.

Under this theory Russia can't blackmail Boeing ULA

 

[FrankSG]

Gary Black said that at 500/share, 52B or 12% of stock will need to be purchased for inclusion.

I don't think $52B is correct. Both Ron Maurer and I calculated it to be 26M and change shares pre-split, which would come out to 130-135M post-split, which is $65-67.5B at a stock price of $500 per share.

I tweeted at him to ask for clarification on how he got to the $52B number.

 

[avoigt]

Do you have any evidence to back up this theory? It's a pretty wild claim to say that the reason extra shares haven't shown up in accounts at some brokers yet is because these brokers were naked short their clients' assets. This is a really wild theory, that I'm extremely skeptical of.

I have to say that I've lost quite a bit of respect for you over the past few weeks, because of how many theories you've thrown out here with little to no evidence to back them up.

I do appreciate your action reports, and the attention you've brought to likely illegal abuse of naked shorting, but I personally don't think your wild theories with little to no evidence from the past few weeks are helpful.

To give a data point around my case.

My Bank BNP Paribas today September 2nd does still not show the correct amount of shares in my account (just 1/5th) but confirmed to me 2 years ago that my shares can't be lent to anybody.

 

[Chenkers]

My guess is casting, stamping, moulding, drive, battery, seats on left; body in white, paint shop, general assembly on right; with overhead connections between them. Southern end logistics yard, northern end test track and car loading.

They also have a large area to the east of the transmission lines that is currently being cleared. That could be for logistics, test track, more buildings etc. I'd guess one building for Model Y and the other for Cybertuck and Semi, with the latter not requiring much in the way of stamping and painting. I would also expect 2-3 stories for part of the footprint based on more recent buildings in Shanghai and Germany. Some of the areas to the south and south-east will possibly remain as ponds as they will have large stormwater treatment and detention requirements for the site.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

World's largest lithium-ion battery expanded by 50 per cent, SA lauds battery benefits

 

[WarpedOne]

To give a data point around my case.
My Bank BNP Paribas today September 2nd does still not show the correct amount of shares in my account (just 1/5th) but confirmed to me 2 years ago that my shares can't be lent to anybody.

And another datapoint ... Unicredit bank as of the time of this writing still did not deliver my dividend.
It 'should' be today ...

 

[BelfastEV]

To give a data point around my case.

My Bank BNP Paribas today September 2nd does still not show the correct amount of shares in my account (just 1/5th) but confirmed to me 2 years ago that my shares can't be lent to anybody.

same in the UK here , I’m told to expect the Tesla and Apple bonus shares possibly tomorrow.

 

[Kalani]

First stop: Elon Musk visited CureVac in Tübingen near Stuttgart, which produces a vaccine against Covid-19. Tesla's German company Grohmann may provide RNA "printers" to mass produce vaccine. Phase 2 tests about to begin. Musk went on to Berlin.

 

[UkNorthampton]

But the stock market is not a bubble.

There are perfectly good explanations for all these things. Low interest rates, quantitative easing, future growth, disruption, the coronavirus, and on and on and on. A bubble is not one of them.

Until it is."

I don't have the ability to check right now but I seem to remember that many stocks have NOT risen. I'd be interested in knowing what % of stocks in S&P500 have fallen. My suspicion is that tech (disruption) have risen while many non-tech haven't.

Ultimately, I don't know, I'm trying to make my mind up.I still think Tesla is 12 startups in one having huge potential, a positive mission, but with better management and funding - therefore higher chance of disruption, financial and mission success.

 

[Tslynk67]

Why You Should Not Day Trade | White Coat Investor

Who has been a successful day trader here?
Who has been a successful long holder here?

Yes

 

[jeewee3000]

Yes

Slight disagree there. IMO you don't day trade but you swing-trade (i.e. short term) and you hedge (the wheel strategy).

Day trading in my book is closing almost all positions the day you have opened them. Day traders don't want to depend on what the macro's/market will do overnight. Gains and/or losses are taken before the closing bell.

("Day trading usually refers to the practice of purchasing and selling a security within a single trading day.")

 

[Stretch2727]

I don't think $52B is correct. Both Ron Maurer and I calculated it to be 26M and change shares pre-split, which would come out to 130-135M post-split, which is $65-67.5B at a stock price of $500 per share.

I tweeted at him to ask for clarification on how he got to the $52B number.

The total dollar amount will change with the Tesla stock price. The number of shares does not change at about 130M (post split). Likely the $52B was calculated a week or 2 prior. I agree the dollar amount is $65-$70B currently.

 

[bhtooefr]

Looks like Baillie Gifford reduced their TSLA stake to 4.25%, and no longer has to report their stake: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1088875/000108887520000084/teslainc31082020.txt

 

[ammulder]

Tesla and Apple Stock Are Flying. Here’s One Reason the Market Isn’t Talking About.

According to a Wall Street newsletter from the Bear Traps Report published Tuesday, Wall Street is too short gamma, and that is messing up brokers’ hedging strategies. It could also be partly fueling the steep rise in some stocks, including Tesla and Apple.

So one thing is confusing me about these greeks. Does whoever originally sells the option control them in any way? Or are they only derived by observing the movement of the option price on the open market over time?

For instance, for theta (time decay)... Do you "set" a high theta if you want high time decay when you first create and sell an option? Or is it more the case that you observe the market price for the option changing in an unexpected way and deduce that theta must be higher or lower because the option is reacting more to change in time than to change in underlying stock price or volatility or etc.?

 

[Krugerrand]

Supposedly Boeing stocks Russian engines and spare parts to last 6 plus years.

If Russia cuts them off they can get their own manufacturing up and running within those 6 years. The engineering is already done.

Under this theory Russia can't blackmail Boeing ULA

That sounds suspiciously like; ‘GM, Ford, VW, et al can build an EV to rival a Tesla any time they want.’

 

[HG Wells]

All the legacy PC companies though, how are they doing?

Yes, The ones I remember from 1978

MITS (Altair) first mover. Gone
Processor Technologies (SOL 20) BEST desk PC. Gone
South West Tech Gone
IMSAI Gone

I had several of each.

 

[EinSV]

Baillie Gifford has explained that it reduced its TSLA holdings after the share price run-up due to internal guidelines that restrict the concentration in any one company (ala Ark).

They remain strong supporters of the company and say they would be happy to "buy the dip" in the future, if there is one:

"should there be serious setbacks in the share price we would welcome the opportunity to once again increase our shareholding."​

Scottish investor reveals 'enforced' reduction of holding in Tesla but says remains 'strong supporter' of Californian electric vehicle pioneer