Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Baillie Gifford has explained that it reduced its TSLA holdings after the share price run-up due to internal guidelines that restrict the concentration in any one company (ala Ark).

They remain strong supporters of the company and say they would be happy to "buy the dip" in the future, if there is one:

"should there be serious setbacks in the share price we would welcome the opportunity to once again increase our shareholding."​

Scottish investor reveals 'enforced' reduction of holding in Tesla but says remains 'strong supporter' of Californian electric vehicle pioneer

Some how I don't think that is how it will be played out on CNBC or in print .

 

[mongo]

Slight disagree there. IMO you don't day trade but you swing-trade (i.e. short term) and you hedge (the wheel strategy).

Day trading in my book is closing almost all positions the day you have opened them. Day traders don't want to depend on what the macro's/market will do overnight. Gains and/or losses are taken before the closing bell.

("Day trading usually refers to the practice of purchasing and selling a security within a single trading day.")

Is there a no true day trader fallacy?
Even if you hold some positions, you can still be a day trader.
What’s the Pattern Day Trading Rule? And How to Avoid Breaking It - Ticker Tape

You are a pattern day trader if you make four or more day trades (as described above) in a rolling five business day period, and those trades make up more than 6% of your account activity within those five days.

I got hit due to memorial day causing Friday to only be 4 trading days from Friday.

Plus, I'm guess @Lycanthrope's day trade portion's returns have been overall positive, which is the point of the answer.

 

[EinSV]

Some how I don't think that is how it will be played out on CNBC or in print .

True, although lately it seems like investors are tuning out the haters in the press, who Baillie Gifford seems to take a (diplomatic) jab at:

“We are privileged to have been Tesla’s largest external shareholder over a critical period for the development of the company. We are immensely grateful for the extraordinary efforts and achievements of Tesla in driving forward a transportation and energy revolution in the face of persistent scepticism and often downright hostility. Without Tesla’s efforts the possibility of averting climate disaster would have been significantly reduced.” Scottish investor reveals 'enforced' reduction of holding in Tesla but says remains 'strong supporter' of Californian electric vehicle pioneer​

 

[FrankSG]

Looks like Baillie Gifford reduced their TSLA stake to 4.25%, and no longer has to report their stake: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1088875/000108887520000084/teslainc31082020.txt

If they hadn't, TSLA would've currently made up nearly 25% of Baillie's portfolio. As it stands, it's still at ~15%, which is still extremely high.

Most institutional investors don't even put more than 5% into a single stock.

 

[Nightshifter]

To give a data point around my case.

My Bank BNP Paribas today September 2nd does still not show the correct amount of shares in my account (just 1/5th) but confirmed to me 2 years ago that my shares can't be lent to anybody.

my bank (Bank Austria) also shows still pre split amount.
flatex showed the correct amount Tuesday morning.

 

[CorneliusXX]

True, although lately it seems like investors are tuning out the haters in the press, who Baillie Gifford seems to take a (diplomatic) swat at:

“We are privileged to have been Tesla’s largest external shareholder over a critical period for the development of the company. We are immensely grateful for the extraordinary efforts and achievements of Tesla in driving forward a transportation and energy revolution in the face of persistent scepticism and often downright hostility. Without Tesla’s efforts the possibility of averting climate disaster would have been significantly reduced.” Scottish investor reveals 'enforced' reduction of holding in Tesla but says remains 'strong supporter' of Californian electric vehicle pioneer​

That sounds like genuine praise to me.

 

[Sancho]

Musk is a once-in-a-generation inventor-businessman. There’s no limit to how he can deploy capital to make multiple fortunes. To maximize the value of TSLA long term he should:

1) raise $50 billion today at this very attractive SP

2) pick 5 or 6 of the largest industries ripe for disruption

3) hire the best managers to run each division of the Tesla conglomerate, including the transport division and energy division

4) become Chairman of the Board and Chief Science Officer of the conglomerate

Anyone here doubt that the profits Musk would achieve in the totally new bets he could fund would be worth more than the 10% dilution?

 

[mickificki]

 

[Nocturnal]

Rumors of MIC model Y being driven around China per Rob Mauer and others.

Musk is a once-in-a-generation inventor-businessman. There’s no limit to how he can deploy capital to make multiple fortunes. To maximize the value of TSLA long term he should:

1) raise $50 billion today at this very attractive SP

2) pick 5 or 6 of the largest industries ripe for disruption

3) hire the best managers to run each division of the Tesla conglomerate, including the transport division and energy division

4) become Chairman of the Board and Chief Science Officer of the conglomerate

Anyone here doubt that the profits Musk would achieve in the totally new bets he could fund would be worth more than the 10% dilution?

I hope he realizes the pool of money available to him for any current/future companies from happy Tesla investors. Private equity is a very antiquated system and I do hope someone can disrupt that as well. I've been trying to get into SpaceX, but would be happy to throw money as "Elon's Disruptive Hot Dog Stand Co" if he started it.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Hopefully we will hear where they propose to spend the money. Tesla's cash position has increased by $3bn ($1bn organically) in the last year - and that was while they were building GF3&4. That is a pretty hefty buffer to continue spending more on expansion. Unless we see real need for the additional cash, why give up our ownership.

That's easy. On massively increasing their own (new) battery production.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I think we could be in for another rough day. NASDAQ futures are up over 0.9% but TSLA is only up 0.6% right now. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think we could be in for another rough day. NASDAQ futures are up over 0.9% but TSLA is only up 0.6% right now. Hope I’m wrong.

Nasdaq up 0.91%, TSLA up 0.84% right now. Really not a significant difference to say anything one way or another, but I don't see how being up almost 1% right now signals "another rough day"?

 

[amolina]

I think we could be in for another rough day. NASDAQ futures are up over 0.9% but TSLA is only up 0.6% right now. Hope I’m wrong.

You want it to go down in the short term (A.k.A before SnP inclusion is announced) . So hope that its a rough day

 

[UkNorthampton]

That sounds suspiciously like; ‘GM, Ford, VW, et al can build an EV to rival a Tesla any time they want.’

Also, how much of their stockpile of parts is worthless if SpaceX take over? Writedown much? Probably bankrupt anyway unless military contracts keep them going just in case/lobbying.

 

[vikings123]

Nasdaq up 0.91%, TSLA up 0.84% right now. Really not a significant difference to say anything one way or another, but I don't see how being up almost 1% right now signals "another rough day"?

I'm honestly hoping for a flat to down day. I would like to make some options plays for the next couple of weeks but that IV is off the charts. IV is at 1.24 which is pretty much at all time highs. IV back in July was 1.33. For now I'm just happy to sell puts.

Most traders are looking at that 470 level as key support which means you will see them start shorting TSLA if it loses that support or OTOH they will go long if it bounces off of that support.

 

[Tslynk67]

Slight disagree there. IMO you don't day trade but you swing-trade (i.e. short term) and you hedge (the wheel strategy).

Day trading in my book is closing almost all positions the day you have opened them. Day traders don't want to depend on what the macro's/market will do overnight. Gains and/or losses are taken before the closing bell.

("Day trading usually refers to the practice of purchasing and selling a security within a single trading day.")

In that case I don't...

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Nasdaq up 0.91%, TSLA up 0.84% right now. Really not a significant difference to say anything one way or another, but I don't see how being up almost 1% right now signals "another rough day"?

Well TSLA usually trades at a multiple of the NASDAQ. So it’s just strange that it can’t even keep up this morning. There was a lot of selling pressure yesterday. Just pointing out that it may continue that’s all.

 

[Sancho]

Rumors of MIC model Y being driven around China per Rob Mauer and others.

I hope he realizes the pool of money available to him for any current/future companies from happy Tesla investors. Private equity is a very antiquated system and I do hope someone can disrupt that as well. I've been trying to get into SpaceX, but would be happy to throw money as "Elon's Disruptive Hot Dog Stand Co" if he started it.

But any money he could raise for new ventures would likely be more dilutive to the overall empire. It’s not likely he could raise $50 billion for just a 10% stake in a pool of startups.

 

[Tslynk67]

So, I've $12600 to blow on $TSLA, I can get 26 now in pre-market for $480 each, or wait until MMD and hope to get 27 at $464... (I know, should be $465, but there's a 1% fee/tax on the purchase...)

I'm gonna wait and tough it out - maybe people are spooked with the Ballie Gifford filing...

 

[mongo]

Rambling thought on battery production (looking at you Ford)...

My local city had a lack of hotel space, especially during football season. A few chains noticed this and they all built new locations. Now there may be too much capacity. Reverse may be true for battery supply:

Established cell/battery suppliers have extra capacity. Say one firm has enough headroom to make 4MWh.
OEM1 calls up, "Hey can you support 40k cars at 100 kWh each?"
Supplier: "Sure"

OEM2 calls up, "Hey can you support 60k cars at 60 kWh each?"
Supplier: "Sure"

Repeat till others object...

Tesla calls: "How many kWh can you provide?"
Supplier: "4MWh"
Tesla: "Great, we'll take 'em. Purchase order will be over before close of business."

Later...
OEMs 1..n call up to order, only to find out the capacity is spoken for.
(Alternatively, the first OEM to order gets all the capacity).