Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

I am new to this, but I believe it is true about how the market does not like uncertainty.
My observation: There is too strong a correlation to Tesla announcing they will decide when and how or if they will sell $5bn worth of stock. Why when WHY! how much..or any at all? Tesla created a huge amount of uncertainty. And provided no real reason for the raise.
And the price dropped, and never came back. The stock market does not like uncertainty.

 

[The Accountant]

S&P can decide what they want.....I can too
I have two 401(k) accounts. One at Vanguard and another at Fidelity.
In the Vanguard account, I invest only in mutual funds.
Here are my returns YTD:

The S&P 500 fund is up 7.45% for the year.
The International Growth fund, which holds Tesla as it's 4th largest holding, is up 29%.
I had assumed I was invested in the 500 largest US companies with the S&P 500. I see now I was incorrect.
On Tuesday I will move my investment from the S&P 500 to the International Fund until Tesla shows up in the S&P 500.
Here are the top 10 holdings of the International Growth Fund:

 

[Bet TSLA]

S&P can decide what they want.....I can too
I have two 401(k) accounts. One at Vanguard and another at Fidelity.
In the Vanguard account, I invest only in mutual funds.
Here are my returns YTD:
View attachment 584798

The S&P 500 fund is up 7.45% for the year.
The International Growth fund, which holds Tesla as it's 4th largest holding, is up 29%.
I had assumed I was invested in the 500 largest US companies with the S&P 500. I see now I was incorrect.
On Tuesday I will move my investment from the S&P 500 to the International Fund until Tesla shows up in the S&P 500.
Here are the top 10 holdings of the International Growth Fund:

View attachment 584800

You might want to try Baron Partners Retail Fund (BPTRX). Lots of TSLA and some SpaceX. +70.4% YTD.

 

[JRP3]

After reading that it proves to me that Gates investment in QuantumScape is absolutely meaningless.... If you were considering that stock....

I put weight in JB's involvement. Took a small position as a gamble.

 

[NickInLab]

Yea agreed. And this is the relevant part from a Nasdaq.com article. I think @generalenthu already pointed this out yesterday.


Question #1: what happens if the stock price moves after 4 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday? Well, this is where it starts to get interesting. As any of you who trade in the after-hours market know, stocks continue to trade after the bell. Option strikes can move from out-of-the-money to in-the-money, or vice versa.

Trust me, the professionals in this market watch this very closely. They have approximately 1.5 hours after the close to make their decision on whether or not to exercise.

I was more responding to your stated understanding that exercise is determined by the price (closing or otherwise). Options are typically not exercised when they are OTM (whether that is during or outside of normal trading hours). But they can be.

My point is simply that you can't assume that an option won't be exercised just because the ticker never prints a price that makes the option ITM. Usually they aren't. But sometimes they are.

For example:

• The holder exercises it "just because" they feel like it (as in the example in my prior post).
• The holder is trying to manipulate the market.
  
• If big news drops one minute before the exercise deadline on a Friday, the holder might want to exercise a call (despite the underlying still trading OTM for the strike in after-hours) because they think the price on Monday will be higher than the strike (plus premium).

I acknowledge that this is kind of a nit-picky point, but it's something to consider if you're playing with options. Especially if you don't close your contracts before Friday afternoon.

And, yes, retail brokers have rules to automatically exercise (or not) options at expiry, depending on the market price (if you don't tell them what you want to do). But:

1. As an option-writer, your counterparty is not necessarily a retail trader (so you can't assume they will follow any particular set of auto exercise rules).
2. Even retail traders can almost always override those bot rules.

 

[traxila]

After reading that it proves to me that Gates investment in QuantumScape is absolutely meaningless.... If you were considering that stock....

More about JB being on the board.

 

[Sofie]

Sounds like doom and gloom ahead this next week (maybe even the week after too) for us...I wish people could see beyond this S&P stuff. I feel like we are really heading deep down come Tuesday. People need to relax. Ugh.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Trust Tesla knows what’s going on. Now I understand why the short shorts were pushed to fall.

also understand why Elon is very quiet. If he was upset about s&p - he would have tweeted about it.

a quiet Elon is a dangerously good thing for us.

Remember - we still haven’t seen the SBOTC. Elon has never failed to deliver on something he has stated publicly. Never.
Just late.


I will be buying on any weakness.

The stock has gone up 1000% already in the last year and you still think the SBOTC hasn't happened yet?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Sounds like doom and gloom ahead this next week (maybe even the week after too) for us...I wish people could see beyond this S&P stuff. I feel like we are really heading deep down come Tuesday. People need to relax. Ugh.

Nah it’s not that bad. It might drop a bit, but should recover soon enough.

 

[VValleyEV]

So, I get the reaction.

But there's an argument to be made that if a reviewer can think autopilot is engaged when it's not, that's a user interface issue that ought to be corrected. Perhaps whether the small steering wheel icon is gray or light blue is not sufficiently in-your-face? It's pretty important to know whether you are supposed to be in control or the AI is, and that indicator is not as obvious as it could be for such critical information. (It has happened to me before that I double-pulled the right stalk and yet didn't manage to do it correctly and engaged cruise control but not autopilot. So it's plausible to me that this wasn't malicious -- I can't tell from the Twitter pics whether cruise was engaged.)

Thus, even if CR ought to issue an update/correction, I think there's something for Tesla to learn here too. Even so, I would take that to be an opportunity for ongoing improvement as opposed to "fixing a problem."

You make a good point that we should not overlook: that it should be over-the-top obvious whether AutoSteer and/or cruise control is engaged or not, even for newbies or lame CR reviewers. Of course If they don’t understand how to even look for the status, then they shouldn’t be using these features at all. But if they are honestly missing it, it means that a lot of normal folks new to AP will also, and that should be a valid topic of concern and discussion.

I am huge fan of Autopilot and I enjoy using it and testing it cautiously.

I have to agree that I have still occasionally believed auto-steer to be enabled when it is not: perhaps from a double-pull that came off as a single, or maybe because auto-steer was not available when I thought it was (this can change moment by moment on old secondary roads). I have learned to be VERY careful about this, so maybe there is room for improvement in the UI feedback.

I have also been caught off-guard by the behavior that “turning the wheel overriding auto-steer does not turn off cruise control”. There is a sharp turn that the AP has a tough time with; it will make it almost all the way thru and then start heading across the double yellow line. I test this occasionally to see if new versions improve, and when I grab control using the steering wheel it is kind of an adrenaline rush, after all the car is headed into what could be opposing traffic. It is easy to forget while resuming normal breath patterns that the cruise control is still on, which is really not what I was testing. Again there may be room for improvement. Some may argue that it would be safer to have any auto-steer override should cancel cruise control, at least on secondary roads.

 

[Criscmt]

I am shocked at the amount of money being spent to keep Tesla from falling.. Can the buying power be sustained?
- Jim Cramer On Friday (09/04/2020) price action

He seems to imply some forces spending money just to keep the price from going down, and that it's not organic sellers who are buying the stock (forming support).

Any thoughts?

 

[insaneoctane]

You might want to try Baron Partners Retail Fund (BPTRX). Lots of TSLA and some SpaceX. +70.4% YTD.

Know of any funds that contain significant SpaceX investments that don't have >2% expense ratio!?

 

[Chippin]

I've been buying tsla left and right all thursday/friday

It will recover soon enough, not worried one bit

 

[Sofie]

Nah it’s not that bad. It might drop a bit, but should recover soon enough.

Hope so. I hate this negative press, and I have nothing to argue against it from happening. I can’t say that people won’t react. I know they will.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Hope so. I hate this negative press, and I have nothing to argue against it from happening. I can’t say that people won’t react. I know they will.

Buying opportunity

 

[Singuy]

Hope so. I hate this negative press, and I have nothing to argue against it from happening. I can’t say that people won’t react. I know they will.

Haha, if you hate negative press than you are in the wrong stock. Our gains were built on the backs of negative press.

 

[Christine69420]

A new video from The Wolfpack Berlin show that in Grüneheide the work on the new Giga Factory continue on Sunday morning:

 

[Maarten]

For those with stress about TSLA not yet being included in the S&P500:
Rest assured it doesn't compare to the stress in the boardrooms of the companies that are in line to be kicked out...
Longs will prevail, no doubt about that.

 

[Knightshade]

He seems to imply some forces spending money just to keep the price from going down, and that it's not organic sellers who are buying the stock (forming support).

Any thoughts?

Isn't that the whole softbank story? Tons of $ spent on options driving up price.

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You make a good point that we should not overlook: that it should be over-the-top obvious whether AutoSteer and/or cruise control is engaged or not, even for newbies or lame CR reviewers. Of course If they don’t understand how to even look for the status, then they shouldn’t be using these features at all. But if they are honestly missing it, it means that a lot of normal folks new to AP will also, and that should be a valid topic of concern and discussion..

Part of the problem is remember Elon constantly thinks Level 5 FSD is almost done. And has thought that since at least 2016.

So there wasn't a need to spend a lot of time/effort on mode clarity since soon it'd just drive itself.

There wasn't a need to spend a lot of time/effort on driver attention checks because soon it'd just drive itself.

There wasn't a need for advanced blind spot and cross traffic warnings, because soon it'd just drive itself.

There wasn't a need for any sort of parking camera assists, because soon it'd just go park itself.


And indeed if L5 really was "ready next year" as we've been hearing since '16, those are absolutely the right thing to do.... why waste $ putting LEDs on your side mirrors for blind spot warning if the car is gonna change lanes all by itself all the time? Why waste $ on advanced driver monitoring if you don't need a driver? etc...)... so leaving all that stuff out of the design of the 3 (and thus Y) made perfect sense in that content.


The problem of course is it's 4 years later and it's still not just driving itself, (and generally doing a crap, very limited, job parking itself too) so there's tons of em on the road still driven by humans and either lacking or using very after-thoughty versions of those systems.

Caddy has a very clear indicator of mode built right into the steering wheel- likewise a much more advanced driver attention system.

Because they knew their system was limited to L2, and always would be.

Which makes it great for a casual reviewer not familiar with the car to be very comfortable with the system- even if overall it's a lot less capable compared to Teslas.


Whereas Teslas system can do a lot more (and will do more still in the future) but since it's in a sort of halfway-to-original-intent state right now a casual reviewer who doesn't spend the time to understand the current version and its limitations could much more easily be confused by it.

 

[Singuy]

Was this ever posted? Tesla/Curevac machine used to spin rna using magnets. Sound like using a Tesla drive train unit essentially.

https://twitter.com/JMaxBlank/status/1301163403587788804?s=09