Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrmage]

Random thoughts...

I’m fine with TSLA not being in the S&P. The stock is exceedingly volatile and market cap is huge. I can understand the committee having concerns. They can wait, and as an investor, so can I.

Dips in TSLA are leveraging opportunities for those who play on the side. If SP goes down, I’ll roll my spreads. I try to keep my Tesla holdings fully invested, but change what I’m invested in.

I admire what Bill Gates has done after Microsoft. Maybe he doesn’t like EM. Maybe he doesn’t think Tesla is relevant to his audience. So what? It’s his blog, not a newspaper.

Tesla has plenty of publicity and has rewarded investors well. If you bought a long time ago, you made a lot already. If you bought at the high, you’ll get a great return in a month or a couple years.

If you gambled and lost, sucks but that’s why it’s called gambling.

 

[jerry33]

So, I get the reaction.

But there's an argument to be made that if a reviewer can think autopilot is engaged when it's not, that's a user interface issue that ought to be corrected. Perhaps whether the small steering wheel icon is gray or light blue is not sufficiently in-your-face? It's pretty important to know whether you are supposed to be in control or the AI is, and that indicator is not as obvious as it could be for such critical information. (It has happened to me before that I double-pulled the right stalk and yet didn't manage to do it correctly and engaged cruise control but not autopilot. So it's plausible to me that this wasn't malicious -- I can't tell from the Twitter pics whether cruise was engaged.)

Thus, even if CR ought to issue an update/correction, I think there's something for Tesla to learn here too. Even so, I would take that to be an opportunity for ongoing improvement as opposed to "fixing a problem."

When it turns off, there is a loud warning. If you miss that, you likely shouldn't be driving anything. (Note: My hearing is not the best and it seems loud to me.)

 

[Singuy]

I think you are describing ignorance. Where Bill is now, ignorance is not an excuse. Im not going to take anything from him. Hes done good for the unfortunate but on the technology front hes been complacent. What about the snarky remarks he throws at Elon every once in a while?

Everyone is ignorant right now until after sept 22nd. Just that bulls bears are drawing different conclusions using whatever it's needed to fill in the information gap. One key metric missing from the semi reveal was how much weight it's capable of loading. Elon knows this number will change. And on Sept 22nd we will know just how much weight they have reduced to increase cargo capacity.

 

[dl003]

Everyone is ignorant right now until after sept 22nd. Just that bulls and bears and drawing different conclusions using whatever it's needed to fill in the information gap. One key metric missing from the semi reveal was how much weight it's capable of loading. Elon knows this number will change. And on Sept 22nd we will know just how much weight they have reduced to increase cargo capacity.

I certainly am looking forward to Elon blowing it out of the park. My hope is it will be our 2007 iphone moment that redefines Tesla as an energy technology company.

 

[jerry33]

Everyone is ignorant right now until after sept 22nd. Just that bulls and bears and drawing different conclusions using whatever it's needed to fill in the information gap. One key metric missing from the semi reveal was how much weight it's capable of loading. Elon knows this number will change. And on Sept 22nd we will know just how much weight they have reduced to increase cargo capacity.

Actually Bill may have a point about the loading. Regulations limit the axle loading and the gross vehicle weight, which varies by jurisdiction. If batteries weight the same or less than an engine and transmission (which is very possible given how heavy truck engines and transmissions are), then it's a no-brainer. If the weight of batteries is more then the lost freight needs to be compared to the fuel savings and time saved (e.g. more trips with slightly less freight). There are some trucks that are volume limited (e.g. moving vans) where size rather than weight is the limiting factor, but for most 18 wheel size trucks it's weight.

 

[Drax7]

What gates thinks i figure is what buffet and munger tell him about electric
Cars and musk. I detect envy from all three.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Bet, student question... you'd write them in the money (if so why), or am I reading this wrong? Thanks!

I'm betting on profiting more from a rise in the stock price than from earning the time value. Selling puts, the time value going to zero by expiration is one thing that makes you money. That happens even if the stock doesn't go up. Writing puts that are out of the money is safer, but potentially makes you less money.

Premium on an ITM put would be significant. He’s betting that it will expire above that price.

No. All I'm betting on is that the stock price doesn't go down (much). I don't need it to get anywhere near the strike price to make money.

Of course, this is all very risky. If the stock price drops significantly you can lose a lot of money. This past week I wrote puts that had the potential to make me $X, and I would break even if TSLA was above 460 (I wrote them when TSLA was at 483). I lost $5X on that bet, as I closed the position near the bottom (375). Ouch!

I strongly advise anybody thinking about doing this sort of gambling to paper trade for at least a few months to get the feel for things. And don't bet significant amounts regardless. It's best to get a few huge losses under your belt in fantasy land rather than reality. Don't ask me how I know this.

 

[Bet TSLA]

could it be that S&P didn't include Tesla, because of the quite newly gained insane PE ratio of over 1000?

No.

 

[Singuy]

Actually Bill may have a point about the loading. Regulations limit the axle loading and the gross vehicle weight, which varies by jurisdiction. If batteries weight the same or less than an engine and transmission (which is very possible given how heavy truck engines and transmissions are), then it's a no-brainer. If the weight of batteries is more then the lost freight needs to be compared to the fuel savings and time saved (e.g. more trips with slightly less freight). There are some trucks that are volume limited (e.g. moving vans) where size rather than weight is the limiting factor, but for most 18 wheel size trucks it's weight.

Bills criticism has been the criticism of the Semi project since reveal because load capacity was not a spec shown during the reveal, which is actually the most important metric for an 18 wheeler due to the 60k lbs restriction put in place. Elon and his team fully understand that if they were to show this number back in 2016, it would have been a dud since we know the production product will be miles better. And it was what, just 3 months ago Elon finally felt comfortable bringing semi to volume production? Sept 22nd will spill all the beans.

 

[Knightshade]

Remember - we still haven’t seen the SBOTC. Elon has never failed to deliver on something he has stated publicly. Never.
Just late.

.

He has though.

(warning: below is a list of actual facts, so I expect a flood of disagrees )



Like when they did the $2000 FSD sale they later admitted was a mistake, and he stated publicly anybody who paid $3000 for it would get a 1k refund.

Then later it turned out nobody who paid 3k more than within a week or 2 of the sale actually was getting a refund- the folks who did so in the previous couple years when they were explicitly told it'd never be cheaper got nothing.


Or when he promised all new cars come with all the HW needed for FSD back in 2016. Then it turned out they didn't and had to be upgraded with HW that didn't even exist when he made the original claim. See also his promise on autonomy day all new cars now come with HW3 and that didn't turn out true either.

Or going back further when he promised Supercharging is, and always will be free.

There's certainly sound economic reasons these promises ended up broken- but they are explicitly things he said publicly then failed to deliver on (broken promises, not just late ones).


That ignores the much longer list of stuff promised to a specific date that in theory could still be delivered eventually even if it's years late which is a whole different can of worms (and Elon himself has said if it's something he hasn't done before even he has no idea how long it'll really take and his dates are fundamentally nonsense guesses)



Elon is a brilliant, dynamic, exceedingly clever and innovative person who is spearheading a vastly better future.

He's not an infallible god who never gets anything wrong.

Investing like he is the second one, not the first, would not likely be the best strategy.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So IBKR assigned me shares for the 410 put I left open going into the close. I guess these are the kind of shenanigans a major announcement about TSLA can bring out.

Interesting. This is the sort of thing that can happen when you sell options, as the power to choose whether and when to exercise belongs to the buyer. No shenanigans, just part of the deal. It's best to understand that before you invest. I keep learning.

This may well be a costly mistake for you if you have to sell the shares quickly.

 

[Open Interest]

Remember - we still haven’t seen the SBOTC. Elon has never failed to deliver on something he has stated publicly. Never.
Just late.

What is SBOTC?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Actually Bill may have a point about the loading. Regulations limit the axle loading and the gross vehicle weight, which varies by jurisdiction. If batteries weight the same or less than an engine and transmission (which is very possible given how heavy truck engines and transmissions are), then it's a no-brainer. If the weight of batteries is more then the lost freight needs to be compared to the fuel savings and time saved (e.g. more trips with slightly less freight). There are some trucks that are volume limited (e.g. moving vans) where size rather than weight is the limiting factor, but for most 18 wheel size trucks it's weight.

I’m sure Bill thought of this but it never crossed the minds of all the mediocre engineers at Tesla

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

What is SBOTC?

Short Burn Of The Century

 

[Ratanpara]

Gates has a personal issue with Elon, that's all this is about. You would think a billionaire who claims to care about climate change would be above something this petty. I guess not. Big $ = bigger ego.

Unfortunately I only hold index funds in my 401k which doesn't have any access to Tesla directly. I think I'll just move to other funds that track the Nasdaq or Russel etc. I've never cared for these secret committees of self anointed oracles. You see the same kind of crap in Hollywood with the awards panels.

I feel like dumb index investing is very dumb, I have same problem ,my 401 K at work has very limited choice, I have not invested in stock like kohl’s in last 7-8 years , since rise of Amazon yet my investment $ get invested in such companies through 401k. biggest reason most mutual fund underperform because of their quarterly balancing of portfolio, they are force to do it because they need to show profit against benchmark index, as a independent investor i could be careless about quarterly performance, I would more care about how is company I am holding doing over 5 years period.

 

[ammulder]

When it turns off, there is a loud warning. If you miss that, you likely shouldn't be driving anything. (Note: My hearing is not the best and it seems loud to me.)

My thinking was that Autopilot never turned on in the first place. That is, you're driving manually, double-pull the right stalk down, but don't do it quite right, and cruise engages but autopilot doesn't. Though you think it does because you think you made the right motion. There is the absence of a chime that could be taken as your alert, but this has happened to me where somehow the lack of chime didn't register. It hasn't happened to me often -- maybe a couple times a year, and I haven't yet driven off the road thinking the car had it under control. But as I said, I would entertain the possibility that there's some room for improvement in the obviousness of whether AP is engaged or not -- especially if less-Tesla-wise reviewers are making this mistake and blaming the car for the resulting behavior.

 

[JRP3]

Nothing wrong with Bill Gates and people need to stay objective here. I am not going to trash him for not understanding the technology and he speaks with uncertainty.

If he's going to make statements about the technology he should have a good understanding of it.

 

[Singuy]

If he's going to make statements about the technology he should have a good understanding of it.

Unless you work for Tesla engineering, no one have a good understanding of what they have. A bull making claims about million batteries about to utilize our cars as virtual power plants are just as wrong as whatever Bill is saying. Or who knows, just as right. Everything is speculation.

 

[H Mak]

Bill Gates Snubs Tesla In Post About Electric Vehicles

He noted that batteries are big and heavy, and the more weight that's being moved, the more batteries that are needed, which increase the weight further.​

Genius. Back to the drawing board Elon.​

 

[vikings123]

Interesting. This is the sort of thing that can happen when you sell options, as the power to choose whether and when to exercise is theirs. No shenanigans, just part of the deal. It's best to understand that before you invest. I keep learning.

This may well be a costly mistake for you if you have to sell the shares quickly.

I have absolutely zero concerns about getting assigned plus my break even is 395$. I understood the risk before selling the put.

My understanding is the option exercise is based on the closing price in regular hours. I will call my broker to get a better understanding because to me this can be gamed. I guess most news do not come out on a Friday to clearly this is an exception.

The only reason I pointed it out was to give an example of the craziness that can ensue when the eventual announcement comes out. People on this forum actually predicted this(exercise of options based on AH prices) will happen.