Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Interesting that this is happening before the election.

Less interesting if your point is just that big money wants to de-risk.

More interesting if you’re implying it is to affect the election.

 

[kengchang]

Model S/X delivery estimate back to 2-4 weeks for CA. Anyone on the East Coast can check?

 

[Causalien]

Less interesting if your point is just that big money wants to de-risk.

More interesting if you’re implying it is to affect the election.

Yes.

 

[Criscmt]

58% gains are so meh. My spread at 280/320 yields a 90% gain if TSLA goes up $1.

Expiry date?

 

[Thekiwi]

Seems like some here need reminding:

Share split was announced when Tesla was trading at $274.88c a share on Aug 11th, less than 1 month ago.

At todays closing price, stock is up 20% since split announcement, despite no change in company fundamentals, some minor share dilution from the $5 Billion stock issuance, and unexpectedly not yet included in S&P500.

A 20% increase in a month should be considered a fantastic return for any stock. The almost 100% run-up to $540+ was insane given the lack of any underlying major change in the company, completely driven by idiotic share split FOMO and S&P speculation, rather than any broad change in mindset by investors of the long term fundamentals of the company.

I think people on this forum need to wrap their heads around the fact the company can be undervalued by the market based on long term projections, while at the exact same time be experiencing a short term overvaluation driven by a speculation frenzy.

(disclosure: I have kept my TSLA common stock, but have been selling short term covered calls since last Monday as stock passed $500)

 

[Oveeus]

I think the market is overreacting as in there is no material change in the grand scheme of things in our economies (US/CA at least).

The reason why tech stocks surged to ATH after the pandemic scare was mainly because investors noticed how techs were relatively unaffected, if not actually doing better in the pandemic hit economy because traditional business model actually suffered more.

Of course there were FOMO and gov't stimulus that came into play. The end of those effects should stabilize the market a bit and drops a bit accounting for profit taking and what have you.

I'd continue to add stocks like TSLA, TSM and some other stocks I'm holding because if anything, the pandemic actually would actually accelerate their expansion as their business model shows superiority to the traditional ones.

 

[woodisgood]

Yes.

About as good of a theory as any other about this “much-needed correction.”

I would think it will need to hurt quite a bit more if it’s to have the intended effect. If I catch your drift.

 

[Open Interest]

People are feeling max fear around here which means it's time for a turn around.

Damn max fear at 320 post split..I still would be ecstatic if Tsla is 320 today pre split because I sure bag held a bunch for months when the stock was heading down to 180s.

Perhaps this will be known as the TMC bottom.

 

[llirk]

Missing my 1350 buy order pre split is still too fresh in my mind to make me miss another bottom waiting for sub 300.

Regrettably, I haven't been in TSLA as long as many others on this board (due to buying my Model S instead), but one thing I have learned is to remain disciplined and not let daily or weekly SP swings change my view of what this company is capable of doing. Stay the course.

 

[Thekiwi]

Could the wait time in deliveries be tied to something being changed on battery day?

Possibly, although even with China & Europe poised to produce their own Model Y variants out of the forthcoming Shanghai & Berlin Y factories, at some point the Fremont has to produce Y variant for the rest of world not covered by China and Europe.

In particular, shipping the high margin Performance & AWD Y variant for the LHD markets might make a lot of sense given that includes the UK & most of the Asia Pacific Ex-China region. Could see the first 3/4 weeks of Q4 being devoted to that model before switching back to North America Y production.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I am going out on a limb and predicting a green day tomorrow....call me crazy....but my crystal ball never fails me.

 

[BornToFly]

My account is still up a lot, but down $$$$ from one week ago. I'm not worried at all. The $5 Billion cash raise means the Berlin and Austin Factories were essentially free. Those free factories are going to be making cars a year from now, and tons of cars in two years (eventually more than a million cars each). What other major companies can say that? Q3 will be amazing. Q4 even better. Next year will be better still. The S&P 500 surge will happen again in the next quarter or two (if not this month). Big institutions are making money on the volatility and getting weak longs to sell TSLA cheap. It appears to be working based on the posts today. I'm actually hoping it goes a little lower so I can get more shares with the retirement money I made selling covered calls recently. Then I'll sell even more covered calls against those.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

My account is still up a lot, but down $$$$ from one week ago. I'm not worried at all. The $5 Billion cash raise means the Berlin and Austin Factories were essentially free. Those free factories are going to be making cars a year from now, and tons of cars in two years. What other major companies can say that? Q3 will be amazing. Q4 even better. Next year will be better still. The S&P 500 surge will happen again in the next quarter or two (if not this month). Big institutions are making money on the volatility and getting weak longs to sell TSLA cheap. It appears to be working based on the posts today. I'm actually hoping it goes a little lower so I can get more shares with the retirement money I made selling covered calls recently. Then I'll sell even more covered calls against those.

Good points...now get to selling more so the SP can go back up

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Sep 08, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Trudges Down to 50-Day Moving Average"

Traded: $40,151,427,088.40 ($40.15B)
Volume: 115,490,016
VWAP: $347.66

Closing SP / VWAP: 94.62%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $307.693B / $182.977B = 168.16%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $362.28B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $203.60B
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 45.7% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 37.1% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 8.40% of Short Volume (115th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Kabuki Theatre on Wall St. moves into Act V"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[willow_hiller]

Model S/X delivery estimate back to 2-4 weeks for CA. Anyone on the East Coast can check?

I'm seeing 10-14 weeks for S, X, and Y; and 2-4 weeks for 3 here in Maryland.

 

[FrankSG]

Another interesting theory by @DaveT :

Could be that the cap raise was completed so quickly because the S&P asked Tesla to do the raise, and said that they would include Tesla upon completion of this liquidity injection. If true, this would have incentivized Tesla to complete it as quickly as possible.

@StarFoxisDown!

 

[HG Wells]

Do we all agree that Etsy is the new "Tesla Killer"

Driving while taking ecstasy is a Tesla Killer.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Driving while taking ecstasy is a Tesla Killer.

That's just a killer period regardless of what you are driving.....

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I think Elon has unlocked 2 tranches of his compensation plan this quarter. Will this negatively affect EPS for Q3?

 

[HG Wells]

My apologies in advance if this turns into a slugfest, but can anyone make sense of the latest threat from Trump toward companies doing business in China? Why is he crashing the market just before election?

Because he asked for campaign contributions and they haven't paid yet ?