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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
FWIW, if there are weak hands, it’s ‘hedge fund managers’ who were legacy liberal arts graduates of the Ivy League (nothing against the liberal arts beyond "Why waste this gift on the Street?"). They are the prey of the day.I think anyone who has held on through a 45% drop is unlikely to be classified as weak hand
We’re long past the "We can kill Tesla via the stock market" days.
Could be there’re some bait balls (Bait ball - Wikipedia) of Robinhood and other retail, but I suspect they’ll be more resilient than the sissies in
tl;dr: Who’s a BSD? Today the Street eats its own and in this way the Valley schools the Street.
BTW, I’m not a deliberate practitioner of obscurantism. Just my way of thinking intersects only partially with la mode du jour — so don’t judge me.
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> it was done at a time when the price was "fairly high", sometimes waiting for a better price doesn't work out.
I see your point.
For me still, barring a concern of macros not doing well around BDay event, I fail to see a reason to rush this ATM offering other than implying BDay won't have much upside for SP.
1 in the hand better than 2 in the bush.
They knew what the price was at the time, and were happy to do a raise to get the money they wanted. Nobody can guarantee what happens after bday. They could assume much more favorable pricing and end up wrong.
It's like saying why executives keep selling their stock while Tesla can be worth much more later on.
There is no reason we know of ... but the mechanism used did get it done as quickly and opaquely as possible....
If they need extra cash after Battery Day a typical approach is to outline the case, and raise the cash after the event..
Perhaps they are going to announce that they have the cash, and have signed contracts?
IMO Battery Day should have an upside, put share prices north of $450 were very good prices, we may not get back to that kind of territory after Battery Day.
But we have Q3 Production and Deliveries to come.... time to focus on predictions there... because that may have a bigger short term effect than Battery Day.
SunCatcher
Member
Rob Maurer: "Even though Tesla is down 34% from its peak last Monday; it's still... and I think this is really important context to remember, is up 13.5 % from a month ago today, 284% year to date, and 612% from one year ago."
jhm
Well-Known Member
The Blind Faith method attempt to harness the paradox of how a stock can be underpriced for long-term value while over-priced in the short run.
Anyone checked on TT007 this week?
Couple of observations before signing off for the day. The largest ever move forces me to put a few thoughts down. Bad news first:
From close of Friday to close of Tuesday, we lost ~88 points. And given the size of the move, today was pretty mediocre volume at ~115 Million. I'd have expected a volume of about ~150 million or more. This means, there was not enough liquidity in the market to delta hedge by market makers. I think they are now net long TSLA and would probably look to get flatter tomorrow, which would be an overhang. This is consistent with the theory that the options exacerbate volatility. We saw a large down move and the open options tend to push it in the same direction until there is a reversal. If macros are not very strong, tomorrow is likely to be another down day.
Now, on to more cheerful things, historically all raises have been quickly followed by a rally. Like Pavlov's dogs, several buyers will come in once Tesla discloses tomorrow (9/9) what they managed to sell the offering at. I expect around ~425 (A bit higher than 420!). Kudos to Zach on consistently nailing the local tops!!
At a more micro level, the last time we were at 330 was in mid August (8/17). At that time, there were about 220 million shares supporting the options open interest (notionally). That number today is about 155 million. Means about 65 million shares worth of exposure has translated from options to straight up stock. Anytime this happens, it means stock is moving into stronger hands than the typical option speculator. Even if these numbers are all overstated by a factor of 2, that is still a significant "absorption" of the stock.
This is how progress is made on the stock price front - 3 steps forward, 2 steps back. Never in a straight line. This backing and filling is needed for stock to move from weaker to stronger hands, on top of which further gains are built. If you're able to time the market all the more power to you. But the worst you could do is let this volatility shake you off this ride. If selling a bit here helps you hold on stronger, would recommend that too, but my buy finger is getting a bit itchy.
From close of Friday to close of Tuesday, we lost ~88 points. And given the size of the move, today was pretty mediocre volume at ~115 Million. I'd have expected a volume of about ~150 million or more. This means, there was not enough liquidity in the market to delta hedge by market makers. I think they are now net long TSLA and would probably look to get flatter tomorrow, which would be an overhang. This is consistent with the theory that the options exacerbate volatility. We saw a large down move and the open options tend to push it in the same direction until there is a reversal. If macros are not very strong, tomorrow is likely to be another down day.
Now, on to more cheerful things, historically all raises have been quickly followed by a rally. Like Pavlov's dogs, several buyers will come in once Tesla discloses tomorrow (9/9) what they managed to sell the offering at. I expect around ~425 (A bit higher than 420!). Kudos to Zach on consistently nailing the local tops!!
At a more micro level, the last time we were at 330 was in mid August (8/17). At that time, there were about 220 million shares supporting the options open interest (notionally). That number today is about 155 million. Means about 65 million shares worth of exposure has translated from options to straight up stock. Anytime this happens, it means stock is moving into stronger hands than the typical option speculator. Even if these numbers are all overstated by a factor of 2, that is still a significant "absorption" of the stock.
This is how progress is made on the stock price front - 3 steps forward, 2 steps back. Never in a straight line. This backing and filling is needed for stock to move from weaker to stronger hands, on top of which further gains are built. If you're able to time the market all the more power to you. But the worst you could do is let this volatility shake you off this ride. If selling a bit here helps you hold on stronger, would recommend that too, but my buy finger is getting a bit itchy.
Can we stop discussing Nikola Motors please. What Nikola does has no bearing on Tesla whatsoever.
I had to mute people and words on Twitter to keep my timeline clean of $Tslaq level of toxic behaviour by the $NKLAQ crowd.
Let’s just focus on Elon & Tesla.
I had to mute people and words on Twitter to keep my timeline clean of $Tslaq level of toxic behaviour by the $NKLAQ crowd.
Let’s just focus on Elon & Tesla.
*raises hand* I am one of them. Bought 155 shares, some LEAPS and a couple of lotto calls for October.
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This just goes to show how risky it is to expose your underbody outside, even on your own property. You never know who might be snooping!
90% return if TSLA SP is at least $320 at expiration. TSLA is already higher than that, so I was just pointing out that TSLA doesn't even need to go anywhere for substantial gains.
It is not a dumb question. According to a fellow TMC member & firefighter FireMedic there is no significant risk to Tesla’s Fremont factory. See linked post
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
It’s a real thing, seen it often before with other stocks where there is a sudden sharp run up to an ATH based on speculation, a large drop when the short term speculative event proves to be wrong, and then a long time later the underlying company has proven itself and regained and overtaken the previous ATH, but this time based on underlying fundamentals instead of speculation.
The reason underlying a massive run up in a stock price is very important in determining whether that run up will hold or not.
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
The factory is in a built-up area, so I wouldn’t think that’s worth worrying about. There may be some logistical risks: getting parts and workers in, and delivering vehicles to some areas for the end of quarter rush.
Tesla 336 usd in Germany atm I really feel like the worst is over let's pray
I think anyone who has held on through a 45% drop is unlikely to be classified as weak hand
What about those who sold at 450-500 level? Empty hand?
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