Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

The annual meeting of shareholders starts at 1:30 PT, battery day probably 1,5 hours later (or 1 hour if there are not too many idiotic questions).

I still want to know what Tesla is going to do about that $1500 bike. That’s never been answered and it’s like a black cloud hanging over the company.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are you saying Tesla won't make money selling cars? If so, what's your basis?

I'm saying Tesla profits exclusive of FSD and Energy would barely justify a $300B market cap in 2030.

Current TSLA sentiment is like saying in 2005 that Amazon will be killing it in 2010 because they'll sell all the books. Having 2-4% of the 2030 global sustainable energy market is a LOT better than selling half of it's cars(FSD implications aside).

 

[Nocturnal]

To obtain 200 miles of range it takes more than 20 minutes. Usually it's closer to an hour (most SCs are V2). Bathroom breaks and meals are basically free charging times because you are charging at those times. Fortunately, many SCs are 100 miles apart, which does only take 15 minutes. 200 miles apart is an issue.

And location. An SC right off the highway can be a 2 minute detour, others are 15 minutes.

The biggest barrier to EV adoption isn't infrastructure, or range, or charging speed. It's mentality. Humans quickly adapt to the norm and discount it. Nobody complains about the time they spend dealing with oil changes or stopping for gas. It's just accepted as part of life. So when considering an EV they forget those ICE costs and instead just focus on the novel costs associated with an EV. People are also very bad at recognizing opportunity cost. I don't know how many people have told me they don't care to save 2k a year if they have to spend an extra 2 hours on their twice a year trip. Of course those people don't net $500 an hour but they can't make that leap.

 

[Snerruc]

To obtain 200 miles of range it takes more than 20 minutes. Usually it's closer to an hour (most SCs are V2). Bathroom breaks and meals are basically free charging times because you are charging at those times. Fortunately, many SCs are 100 miles apart, which does only take 15 minutes. 200 miles apart is an issue.

Just did a 1440 mile trip. Started with a full battery stopped twice...lunch and dinner going up. Back started with half full, so three stops. Twelve hours for 720 miles and never over 80. Mostly 75. Easy 275 miles between charges. Just let the car decide what it wanted to do.

 

[Drumheller]

Just had a 5-hour work meeting scheduled during the entirety of the battery day stream on Tuesday. Guess I'll be watching it later. Feel like I dropped my birthday cake or something.

I blocked the time on my work calender but I also work in a place where people don't respect the calender. So, will see what happens.

Watch it on YouTube before you catch up in this thread so it can feel close to thr same as watching it live.

 

[Paul_SF]

I still want to know what Tesla is going to do about that $1500 bike. That’s never been answered and it’s like a black cloud hanging over the company.

Priority Bikes have the best bikes out there. With a gearbox made by former Porsche engineers. Look it up, the 600X is great! Have a preorder in!

 

[Krugerrand]

Someone already mentioned before (too lazy to go back) - just divide by 2 and add a Zero

I want to say that technically that’s the new long math. Multiple by 5 = one step. Divide by 2 and add a 0 = two steps.

 

[lafrisbee]

The planned production implies enough for the S and X and possibly the Roadster, not enough for the Y and they’re contracted to use Panasonic batteries for the next 3 years.

While you may very well be correct in your assumption of which vehicle models will get the new batteries first your reasoning does not support it because IF there are enough new batteries the Panasonic cells could be used for stationary projects.
However it is unlikely that the quantity needed for ALL the different vehicle models will be met in the current year...or two. We will know more soon.

 

[Fobble]

Can you give me your favorite tax loop hole to avoid tax on short term capital gains?

Best is to check with your CPA or tax professional. Good lucks.

 

[Sudre]

So grandma lives 960 miles away and while driving you average 60 mph. You stop to charge for 20 minutes every 200 miles, that's 80 minutes of charging (i.e. at 200, 400, 600 and 800 miles into the trip; 4 charging breaks). Total drive + charging time = 17h20m. If the charging time is reduced to 5 minutes you'll save one hour on the trip (4 stops x 15 minutes). Now you're down to 16h20m. But that also means you'll have to add in some time for bathroom breaks and meals whereas before you did this while the car was charging so you'll likely not even save one hour. So for an extremely long day driving, you'll save one hour at best. Is that really the difference between a one day and two day trip?

While I completely agree with your idea, it is not reality. Most people in the US do not follow that logic. It takes me 22 hours to drive to my parents house in Florida in my Model S60. We get there refreshed and ready to party. My parents just drove up here in their gas SUV. It took the 18 hours. They literally pee'd in cups. My mom bought a special container for women. That is how ridiculous Americans are. They will chew on a cheese burger driving 70MPH+ through Atlanta HEAVY construction traffic risking an accident the whole way.

While I agree with your logic and it is informative logic. The others are right in disagreeing.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Before the Tech Recovery That Wasn’t over the last week, the Nasdaq was last at these levels on Friday, when TSLA was at $365. That’s a nice ratchet up.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sorry if I missed it but isn't this Elon tweet from last night indicating that the new cell line (Roadrunner) is up and running?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1306491844512026624

 

[mrmage]

While I agree that faster charging is perceived as a big deal, I don't believe it actually is one. Not for the owner anyway. What an owner needs is charge availability not charging speed.

Charging Speed
When I get asked about my car one of the inevitable questions is "what about charging" and I patiently try to explain that they are looking at it all wrong. Even the V2 chargers are fast enough -- or a tad too fast at times -- because I'd like to get an actual break when I stop. Its never been long enough to go into a restaurant and eat a meal -- I have to get up early and move the car to avoid charges.

Where faster charging makes a difference is in throughput: a ten stall charger that takes thirty minutes to go from 20% to 80% can handle 20 cars an hour, but drop that down to five minutes and it can handle 120 cars an hour. Even in California V2 chargers would be largely sufficient if there were enough of them. But the foot print gets quite large. V3 helps with that, but fundamentally the advantage is accrued to Tesla, not the driver, who now doesn't have enough time to even use the bathroom before having to move the car and necessitating him/her staying with the car. Those few minutes aren't even enough time to get in a game.

Charging Availability
For an owner what is far more important than charge time is having charging where the car is parked. This is mostly home, followed by work and, more distantly, by destination. If I did not have home charging then it would not be anywhere near as reasonable to drive an EV. As I try to explain to folks, it doesn't really matter if takes five hours or five minutes if it is happening overnight or over a work shift.

It does need to be fast enough, and if you are subject to frigid conditions then the trickle charger doesn't cut it. Which is why Jan/Feb 2019 I had to go to a super charger: the trickle charger couldn't keep up with depletion in the arctic conditions. Once I finally got the home charger installed those problems went away. I used to charge once every week or two thinking I needed to let the battery get some work (e.g., running from 60% to 40%) but with scheduled charging I just plug it in each night and have 80% charge in the morning -- which is also my departure charge if I'm going on a trip because, realistically, I can't get enough range to skip a super charger, would be stopping periodically anyway, and the charge will be faster (and thus cheaper) when depleted to a lower soc.

Perception versus Practice
So while I get that charging speed is perceived as a big deal, with greater EV penetration more people will be learning from others that in practice it isn't actually a problem (at least for Tesla with super chargers). Instead, they will be concerned with having a home charger, or whether or not the apartment complex has chargers. Overnight charging is the practical issue.

We own an MX, use it for long drives, and find charging is too slow. We tolerate it, but it’s really inconvenient for trips.

If we had a choice, we wouldn’t take long breaks on road trips because we can eat on the run. Even when a destination has a SC, we need to hang around a short distance away until it’s charged. The restaurants within walking distance of the SCs are usually not where I’d want to eat. Having to remove the car after charging has interrupted many meals.

Some don’t mind these inconveniences, but these are not just perceptions or imaginings of non owners.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Low to avg volume today. I'm actually a bit surprised people aren't loading up in anticipation of Battery Day. Perhaps up is now down and we won't see sell-the-news!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm saying Tesla profits exclusive of FSD and Energy would barely justify a $300B market cap in 2030.

Current TSLA sentiment is like saying in 2005 that Amazon will be killing it in 2010 because they'll sell all the books. Having 2-4% of the 2030 global sustainable energy market is a LOT better than selling half of it's cars(FSD implications aside).

While I definitely agree that FSD and Energy will generate the profits that will gives Tesla a valuation in the trillions, I don't think the Auto side should be so easily dismissed as a profit generator. In traditional auto......sure. But Tesla has shown and it seems like they're ratcheting this up now.....that the can continually drop the costs of the cars through manufacturing breakthroughs. I think when Giga Berlin, China, and Texas are up and running, Tesla will be posting profits from the Auto side alone that will demolish long standing beliefs of what is possible in terms of profits from an auto maker

 

[Unpilot]

The taller Tesla cells will also provide a middle ground between a single pack and the doubled up pack that has been proposed previously for the Roadster.


Just turn on autopilot!

Won't be in the Tesla

 

[ABCTG]

If Battery Day does get cost parity for an EV to an ICE, then it really is the end of oil.



Zac and Jesse of Now You Know did a ride along with the Westport Connecticut Police in a Tesla Model 3 cop car.

Fleet buyers are learning the total cost of ownership for an EV is already better than for a ICE, even though a Tesla Model 3 Performance is more upfront than a Dodge Charger.

After one year, the Model 3 brakes are still over 96%
All ICE cop cars have the brakes replaced every 7500 miles!
Around the 7:30 minute mark

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Sorry if I missed it but isn't this Elon tweet from last night indicating that the new cell line (Roadrunner) is up and running?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1306491844512026624

No, I think he’s just referring to building multiple factories as quickly as possible.

 

[humbaba]

We own an MX, use it for long drives, and find charging is too slow. We tolerate it, but it’s really inconvenient for trips.

If we had a choice, we wouldn’t take long breaks on road trips because we can eat on the run. Even when a destination has a SC, we need to hang around a short distance away until it’s charged. The restaurants within walking distance of the SCs are usually not where I’d want to eat. Having to remove the car after charging has interrupted many meals.

Some don’t mind these inconveniences, but these are not just perceptions or imaginings of non owners.

But you talking from a different perspective. You even mention (what I did previously as well ) that it is inconvenient to have your meal interrupted in order to move the vehicle. This is not something that is concern of any non-owner I have ever encountered. They are stuck in the mindset of "you plug it in and stand around" which is what they do with a gasoline car. The notion that your car can be charging while you do something else is just not there. That is what I try to get across.

For an owner, the ideal charging time isn't whatever is fastest, it is for the charging to be completed when they are ready to go. That will be different for different people in different circumstances, but it isn't simply resolved by having faster charging.

For all those who keep disagreeing with this, do they really care whether their car takes five minutes or five hours to charge while they sleep?

Yes, if you want to cannonball then charging an EV is still too slow. I've done that where my average driving speed was just almost my peak driving speed. I did that by stopping as the car was running out of gas at the quickest access gas station. I made very good time and no EV can touch that. But cannonballing is not the norm. The non-EV owners I have talked to have no concern about cannonballing*. Talking with them makes it clear that they just never considered the possibility that they could be doing something else other than just standing at the car while it charges. Pointing out that they could be eating gets the light to go off (and, yes, I also disclose that it is already fast enough that in practice I have to interrupt my meal to move the car).

However, for anyone running a charger (e.g., Tesla) faster charging is better because it enables faster throughput which makes the station more efficient. For this reason alone I expect charge times to keep getting faster.

* at least, the ones that are interested in EVs. An anti-EV friend of mine specifically raised a cross-country cannonball.

 

[Khamul]

Mostly another “competition is coming” article, but ends by acknowledging that it’s Tesla’s game to lose.

Who will rule the Teslaverse?

That's a pretty interesting article. There's nothing new for anyone here, but it shows the media is growing more aware of Tesla's position. I felt they didn't present the competition as assured of success; rather it was an overview of present and upcoming EV-producers, and the challenges they'll be facing.

Also, there's this snippet which I kinda love: "The total market capitalisation of listed makers of exclusively electric cars now exceeds $400bn." Ok, they do end the paragraph saying "Call it [the EV sector] the Teslaverse.", so it must be tongue-in-cheek