Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

FWIW The plaid S seems to be a US-only thing. I had to change the website to be US before it was an option (not in UK).

 

[heltok]

My biggest takeaways adding to everything else that has already been posted here:
1. The final numbers for improvement in 18months are awesome, however many of these things can be implemented separetly. For example the new battery inside casting design will likely be in production in Berlin before the 4680 cell is scaled up. Imo we should not just add improvements together, we should analyze them separately.

2. The team at the end of the Q&A, 3:11:00 into the video were awesome. They reminded me a lot of a Forumula student team:

Except that this is not a team of students... This is a team of people who were the top in formula student, then got experience in the industry for 5 years, then were qualified enought to get hired by Tesla, then worked 60h/week with great people around them for 15 years. And they are still happy and excited. Their competition are the students that drank boze and chased girls instead of joining the formula student, got their first job at the local automanufacturer, were enthusiastic for the first year but then got their backs broken by bureaucracy in the old high inertia organization and now mostly just chug on milking the dying company as long as they can. I know which team I would bet on to win the race.

3. This was mostly a message to Panasonic, CATL, Samsung etc: “Get your *sugar* together, mass produce a lot of cheap cells or else we will do it ourselves!”

4. ICE is dead. Even today for most use cases a Model 3/Y/Cybertruck is cheaper than competition. With this the price will move another $5k for a 100kWh battery, $3750 for a 70kWh battery, the supercharging time will go from 20min to 10min compared to 5min for ICE and acceleration, center of gravity, safety will improve even more. In 2-5years there will be very few use cases where ICE will have any advantage at all in any market where Tesla has entered. And if a new technology is cheaper and better the disruption will be as fast as Tesla can grow. And I think Tesla intends to grow ~100%/year for the next 3 years.

5. We should talk more about how cost for Solar+Battery compares to Coal. It is already ~same cost to build new solar as to maintain old coal. With this the equation moves again and also the capital requirement to scale shifts again. How big is the market that can be replaced? How many TW of production and how many TWh of storage is this market? How much of this can Tesla capture? I expect to see solar/battery storage factories going up in China, India, Australia in the not to distant future.

6. Tesla and SpaceX are going deep into material sciences and already use custom alloys. This will be another moat that will be hard for competition which is not as vertically integrated to keep up with. We should keep track of material sciences developments.

7. It will take some time for the results if this to show, expect the market and bulls to disagree with what we think that we see for the next year. It will be turbulent times ahead of us. Try not to lose sleep over the stock, HODL and wait for time to prove you right.

 

[FutureCTOwner]

Does this mean no Cybertruck for Aus??? Watching battery day it sounded like it was just the US market only?

 

[Mike Smith]

Here we have CNBC and Brian Johnson of Barclays flat out lying about Elon promising a $25,000 vehicle would be delivered within 3 years back in 2018. They're referring to a 2018 interview Elon did with Marques Brownlee, in which Marques asked Elon what it would take to create a $25,000 vehicle, and Elon basically replied that it would take 3-4 years and a lot of hard work. He never gave any indication that they were working on a $25,000 vehicle, and certainly never promised one would be delivered by 2021.

Here is what Brian Johnson and CNBC are claiming: (start at 1:10).

An 'unusually subdued' Elon Musk disappoints on Battery Day sending Tesla shares south: Analyst

Here is what was said in the interview they're referring to: (start at 4:45).

 

[wnorris]

One takeaway from the presentation that I have not seen posted is how willing Tesla is to disregard common thinking and re-imagine a process. This takes some big cahones and confidence in your team.

Battery Day showed that Tesla really does operate as a collection of start-ups driven by the same overall mission.

I would have really liked to get a better understanding of timelines for each specific area of improvement. Also, how do these improvements make their way into the upcoming factories?

 

[Green Pete]

One takeaway from the presentation that I have not seen posted is how willing Tesla is to disregard common thinking and re-imagine a process. This takes some big cahones and confidence in your team.

Battery Day showed that Tesla really does operate as a collection of start-ups driven by the same overall mission.

I would have really liked to get a better understanding of timelines for each specific area of improvement. Also, how do these improvements make their way into the upcoming factories?

I don't think the "specific areas of improvement" can be separated out. That's what makes it all the more impressive. They landed like 5 massive improvements all packed into one design.

 

[MABMAB]

On refresh: Sr. Musk has said all along that they continually improve the cars, small step changes added all the time. Not a valid concern.
On Million Mile: This is a step in that direction. Add in recycling and you have got multi million mile building blocks. Not valid.
On disappointment: gimme a break. It's like winning a ball game with a home run but being upset that the ball did not go out of the stadium.

 

[Buckminster]

Low SP increases likelihood of S&P inclusion.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Does this mean no Cybertruck for Aus??? Watching battery day it sounded like it was just the US market only?

I don't think they won't sell to other countries, but they won't adjust it for the smaller ones, like EU where the roads are tiny. Australia will probably come with a built in Not-a-Flamethrower for those spiders y'all got.

 

[FutureCTOwner]

I don't think they won't sell to other countries, but they won't adjust it for the smaller ones, like EU where the roads are tiny. Australia will probably come with a built in Not-a-Flamethrower for those spiders y'all got.

Good. I want my Cybertruck.

 

[JupiterMan]

FWIW The plaid S seems to be a US-only thing. I had to change the website to be US before it was an option (not in UK).

Plaid S is now showing on UK website £130,980

 

[Tslynk67]

FWIW The plaid S seems to be a US-only thing. I had to change the website to be US before it was an option (not in UK).

I see it in the Belgian page

 

[Tslynk67]

Here we have CNBC and Brian Johnson of Barclays flat out lying about Elon promising a $25,000 vehicle would be delivered within 3 years back in 2018. They're referring to a 2018 interview Elon did with Marques Brownlee, in which Marques asked Elon what it would take to create a $25,000 vehicle, and Elon basically replied that it would take 3-4 years and a lot of hard work. He never gave any indication that they were working on a $25,000 vehicle, and certainly never promised one would be delivered by 2021.

Here is what Brian Johnson and CNBC are claiming: (start at 1:10).

An 'unusually subdued' Elon Musk disappoints on Battery Day sending Tesla shares south: Analyst

Here is what was said in the interview they're referring to: (start at 4:45).

I felt compelled to Tweet: https://twitter.com/AskDrStupid/status/1308699055619485697

Barclays support fossil-fuels.

Johnson is a clueless goon.

 

[MABMAB]

On the million mile battery, my impression is the big limit on this is the cracking that takes place in parts of the battery. What I saw that addressed this was some part of the battery being layed out in an elastic adhesive. Shouldn't that help the cracking?

 

[Mo City]

I'm not yet ready to believe the market is this stupid and will wait (at least) until next week before reaching that conclusion.

Let's give folks a few days to come to their senses and realize what just happened.

 

[Green Pete]

On the million mile battery, my impression is the big limit on this is the cracking that takes place in parts of the battery. What I saw that addressed this was some part of the battery being layed out in an elastic adhesive. Shouldn't that help the cracking?

The big factor as I understand is heat which causes the anode and cathode separator to get damaged which reduces the capacity. This is solved by being tabless and their being no heat issues as I understand. That heat graph made it look like 1,000,000 miles was off by a couple powers of 10. But I'm probably getting ahead of myself

Tesla needs to come up with an advanced bioplastics team from it's materials people. We are going to go from using too much fossil fuel to plastic being expensive because fossil fuels companies are going under in the blink of an eye. (wishful thinking maybe but it's a nice thought.)

 

[Mike Smith]

Sandy Munro will give his reaction to Battery Day at 11am ET (8am PT) this morning:

 

[Krugerrand]

What if price of gas eventually drops to $1/gallon? Maybe it would have no effect on Tesla sales, IDK.

What if the price of flip phones drops to $1/phone?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Elon said that the "yield was low", which implies to me that they're making cells, just not so many.

I would guess they'd save them up and produce a new semi each time there's enough, start getting them out there to clients.

Low - hmm 1%, 30%, 70%, 90%, 99% - often in manufacturing you want lots of 9 after the 99 - so his low might still be very high. Not my area of expertise, but I'd imagine Panasonic yield is near 100%, so in comparison, 90%+ is low.

Time, effort, money, creativity and invention will fix this. It's just tweaks.

 

[Green Pete]

I wasn't following Tesla as closely as I am now when Elon was reaching out to other car makes emploring them to collectively work for EVs, before it became clear Tesla was going to have to do it all themselves. I imagine there's some regret on those automakers parts that they won't admit.

Today felt like what I feel like mist of happened back in those days I don't think battery cell suppliers will make the same mistakes big auto did. I get the feeling well hear some amazing partner deals come together in the next few months.