Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cusetownusa]

Simple question: Do you think Tesla will be worth more in 10+ years?

I suppose that is the point of my post...i don’t know how to value that or predict this. I do believe Tesla will continue to grow, perhaps substantially, over the years. however, the stock price has gone up so much that it seems that the future growth is already priced in.

are peoples expectation here that Tesla will become as big and profitable as say Apple, Thus resulting in more stock appreciation?

 

[Unpilot]

I think many people misunderstood. Tesla is making the new cells now, at a slow rate. They didn't say what the rate is, only that they are working on ramping now.

They don't have all of the improvements in place, yet. For instance, I have the impression that the maxwell dry process is not in place, yet.

So they are making those cells now, but they haven't achieved all of the pieces yet that will lead to ramping production and lowering costs to their targets.

I think many people confused pieces of the presentation. Maybe I did, too. If so, I'm sure I will receive corrections.

No I think you got it.
Elon said many times making the machine that makes the machine is the hardest.
They COULD make a car with all the improvements..... maybe even a couple hundred. But they are driving towards a crazy amount of numbers. That takes efficiency and design to build to a huge scale.

 

[ZachF]

Honestly, the best part about battery day, was the massive reductions in required CAPEX, far beyond the decreases in $/KWh.

Combined with a $400b market cap this means Tesla is going to be able to beat everyone at the scaling game.

 

[mickificki]

I suppose that is the point of my post...i don’t know how to value that or predict this. I do believe Tesla will continue to grow, perhaps substantially, over the years. however, the stock price has gone up so much that it seems that the future growth is already priced in.

are peoples expectation here that Tesla will become as big and profitable as say Apple, Thus resulting in more stock appreciation?

Ugh, sit down and watch this.
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1308672187318976514?s=21

Tesla will grow deliveries 50% year over year for quite some time.

 

[Runarbt]

I don't think the "specific areas of improvement" can be separated out. That's what makes it all the more impressive. They landed like 5 massive improvements all packed into one design.

They said so on the call, these improvements does not rely on each other..

 

[Beltsbear]

Karen chimes in.

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1308723500979499009?s=19

This is a really good piece of info. Please make sure you read the entire Twitter thread on battery materials. Very well explained. Some insights that while presented yesterday are detailed with the why that Elon did not detail.

thank you Karen.

 

[vikings123]

lol this guy just makes a fool of himself again and again. Good on Andrew to call his BS. Move to 4:20 for the good part, yes 4:20 . So Gordon which one is it? Demand or supply?

 

[ZachF]

I felt compelled to Tweet: https://twitter.com/AskDrStupid/status/1308699055619485697

Barclays support fossil-fuels.

Johnson is a clueless goon.

View attachment 591226

LOL

How does that guy even have a job?

he couldn't even manage a half-star rating like our buddy Tamberrino.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Solar + battery + electrical resistance heating

Solar + battery + heatpump surely? Probably air-source heatpump.

 

[ZachF]

Solar + battery + heatpump surely? Probably air-source heatpump.

Will depend on climate

It makes sense that Tesla will start making heat pumps in the future.

After you knock out electrical generation and transportation, heating is the largest slice left of the fossil pie.

 

[Destination]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1308562698137821184?s=21

Elon keeps referring to this as the most challenging year ever. Why is this? COVID?

that, opening a new factory within 15 months, bringing the 4th mass produced product online, and driving autopilot to another 5-10% of driving complexity is a lot.

it just doesn’t seem like a lot when everything went well.

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

If you want those robotaxis to be solar powered...?
yes.

Why is that? TCO is unbievable good then, e.g. highly negative.

Does it really matter if the Battery pack costs are 5000 or 20000$, if FSD costs 100000$?

 

[Destination]

Maybe it’s just me but I don’t see a lot of talk about the logistics of Tesla’s battery ambitions:

they’re building two more US facilities? - (attached)

I see you Tulsa and south Missouri.

 

[Beltsbear]

Ugh, sit down and watch this.
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1308672187318976514?s=21

Tesla will grow deliveries 50% year over year for quite some time.

Which is why I hold the stock. Tesla will deliver millions of cars in 2025. Potentially a 25 billion dollar profit without FSD. Battery day shows how that is possible. Tesla will still be growing in 2025. What PE would you assign?

 

[Destination]

Berlin Y production is now very confusing. I don't know how to reconcile the battery day information with Q1/2 2021 Berlin production. I do think the stamped structure will be used before the new pack is available.

The Berlin plan B may be to supply Y to Europe from Fremont and China if the local ramp is slow.

A lower range Cybertruck could also be build with 2170 tech. I'm sure Tesla has multiple possible tech paths planned depending on how the new processes mature.

I'm also sure that there is a high cycle battery in development for the semi and storage. Battery day was about making batteries. I think Musk felt he said plenty. Retail oriented product focused listeners seem to mostly disagree.

yeah it’s 20+ different substantial process/product improvements that will hit the consumer at different times.

consider apple, who has a GIGANTIC pile of cash

I love their products...but

You give Elon money and he’s like, “we’re redefining this (extremely critical) industry”

and it will be spent to the last drop, to the edges quarter by quarter.

 

[ZachF]

Why is that? TCO is unbievable good then, e.g. highly negative.

Does it really matter if the Battery pack costs are 5000 or 20000$, if FSD costs 100000$?

The goal of Tesla is to push humanity into sustainable energy.

Without cheap storage, solar and wind will never be more than a supplement, because the sun doesnt always shine, and the wind doesn't always blow.

With cheap storage, solar and wind can power everything.

 

[Unpilot]

lol this guy just makes a fool of himself again and again. Good on Andrew to call his BS. Move to 4:20 for the good part, yes 4:20 . So Gordon which one is it? Demand or supply?

Love it...the stuttering answer is a classic "I'm lying ...and you caught me" response.

 

[Destination]

I suppose that is the point of my post...i don’t know how to value that or predict this. I do believe Tesla will continue to grow, perhaps substantially, over the years. however, the stock price has gone up so much that it seems that the future growth is already priced in.

are peoples expectation here that Tesla will become as big and profitable as say Apple, Thus resulting in more stock appreciation?

apple is the golden god of walled gardens. So much of its revenue growth is guaranteed due to this. It is one of the safest places for money to be due to this.

 

[larmor]

We've pretty much entered into an age of innovation. Maybe Battery Day pushes battery makers to a new level. Or, at least pushes them to keep up with Tesla before they go the way of Ford.

Or battery makers put 'AI', 'self driving,' and 'internet' in their mission statement, and that should be enough to get funded.

 

[jkirkwood001]

FWIW The plaid S seems to be a US-only thing. I had to change the website to be US before it was an option (not in UK).

Nope. Orderable in Canada too.