Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[agastya]

why does something like this happen - someone fat fingering it?

 

[Rb48888]

Gali reporting that he got to tour the new line with company execs and a group of institutional investors. Helps explain the drive to keep this in-person, and hopefully more questions answered.

tl;dw

The video is a long first take/reaction to the event, and I don’t think I learned anything new, except for confirmation of on-premises cathode production.

Perhaps institutional folks seeing the pilot line in action will counteract some of the “not real yet” feeling on the retail side.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Honestly, the best part about battery day, was the massive reductions in required CAPEX, far beyond the decreases in $/KWh.

Combined with a $400b market cap this means Tesla is going to be able to beat everyone at the scaling game.

Respectfully disagree on point 1: CAPEX is a one-time cost, whereas $/KWh is a recurring, operational cost, and saves money year after year. Assuming Tesla can borrow / raise whatever $ it needs to build a factory, lower $/KWh - which bakes in initial CAPEX - is most important to long-term profitability.

I agree with you on point 2.

 

[dc_h]

why does something like this happen - someone fat fingering it?

View attachment 591256

I’d guess filling an order from last night.

 

[Todd Burch]

I bought TSLA this morning. Cuz I'm not stupid.

 

[jeewee3000]

By far the best way to have experienced Battery Day was to view it on its own merit, without the distraction of the AH ticket tape tracking in the background at every comment, and yes, even the distraction of this thread. Only then would one be able to make their own judgement without impact from outside references. The speculation is over. We ALL now have exactly the same information. I did this and can truly say it was the best presenation ever by Tesla, outlining their roadmap to their future of sustainable transport. A wake up call the legacy auto. I was very impressed.

Short term traders will likely be disappointed. Long term investors will be greatly rewarded. We are seeing the future now.

This.

I do the same thing with every Tesla announcement:

1) I avoid my usual information channels (TMC, electrek, Tesla Daily, etcetera) completely as to avoid spoilers.

2) I watch the event in full without any external input. (I don't understand the concept of "reaction video livestreams" for that matter).

3) I make up my mind regarding how the announcement/reveal will affect the (future of the) company.

4) I visit the above channels and start comparing my views with others.

Sometimes I only catch up on these once-a-year events days/weeks later, but given my long term investment horizon, it's just as if I heard it the day itself.

 

[Krugerrand]

Of course. Once FSD is solved, it will be copied (just like the iPhone was copied). I believe Elon said in ten years everyone will have FSD. Not cheaper means the competition can undercut.

I think Elon is underestimating the stubbornness and stupidity of man. I see this turning out different. Just as he was wrong about OEMs responding to Tesla’s Roadster and then subsequent models, I think he’s wrong about this. Or maybe he’s seeing it based on how he answered one of the questions yesterday and isn’t yet prepared to announce the most probable outcome to his audience.

Outcome: Tesla and China

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

why does something like this happen - someone fat fingering it?

View attachment 591256

Uber bulls.

 

[Cape Coddess]

Forward observing.

Those that watched and listened to the Tesla/Elon annual report and battery evolution took an IQ test.

What we learned was the total transformation, including environmental improvements, of battery production. Taking a pound of dirt out and later replacing it in mining; which American coal company does that? The technology laid out before us ~ OMG.

What was missing? I did not hear the words production he11. I did not hear, they are rolling off the assembly line to meet demand.

What was laid out in detail, so I could understand it, was a timeline with achievable goals. What was there was technology thinking eight hundred thousand years in the making. What you heard was what I heard as a child ~ we are going to the moon. FYI ~ I was in the Day Room watching the first landing on the moon following basic training, and one month out from receiving my destination orders.

Just think where GM would be today had Lutz had 1% of Elon’s conviction. Nothing to say about intelligence..

Fanboy (me)? You might want to take the IQ test again. Or, do you get a Negative Nancy award?

You can bet I am waiting for the 3Q20 production numbers.

Help Wanted ~ can someone come up with or has a male oriented saying instead of “Negative Nancy”? fU Bill; Downer Bob. . .

Danny Downer

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sure it was already posted, but.....

Apparently Deutsche Bank took a long enough break from laundering Russian cartel money to upgrade TSLA from hold to buy.

 

[Sudre]

Berlin Y production is now very confusing. I don't know how to reconcile the battery day information with Q1/2 2021 Berlin production. I do think the stamped structure will be used before the new pack is available.

The Berlin plan B may be to supply Y to Europe from Fremont and China if the local ramp is slow.

A lower range Cybertruck could also be build with 2170 tech. I'm sure Tesla has multiple possible tech paths planned depending on how the new processes mature.

I'm also sure that there is a high cycle battery in development for the semi and storage. Battery day was about making batteries. I think Musk felt he said plenty. Retail oriented product focused listeners seem to mostly disagree.

I don't have much time this morning to go into detail but to me it was pretty clear that they can make the larger cells now. The tabless format is working. SOME of the other bits might be working too. There is no reason they can not use the existing chemistry and make the tabless larger cell with the (was is 16%) range increase and the new Y design. All that is required for the two piece stamp and battery frame is the tabless cells. That is something they can do now with any chemistry. If I had the time I would pull out the video bits where they stressed which bits were not ready. If they tell people now the tabless will be ready in months people will stop ordering all cars until they know for sure which ones are getting it.

 

[Todd Burch]

Premarket trajectory is generally up.

Will there be a push to drop at open? Probably. We see that most days. Do I get the feeling that people "get" what they just saw a little better than autonomy day? Yes.

 

[Words of HABIT]

CT isn't due until late 21, so its likely Plaid will be out first.

If Plaid Model S is using all 5 of the technologies mentioned in todays presentation to increase its range, it means the Plaid model S will be an all new design using the new casts and structural batteries - so its not just the new battery cell it is waiting on but the new model S production line changes (cast machines) as well.

Based on the image presented below, with same overall mass of structure, it is unlikely that the Model S needs to be redesigned. IMHO the Model S exterior design is timeless. Tesla does not need to change for the sake of change like traditional auto to get people to buy their cars every four years.

 

[Robocop]

Premarket trajectory is generally up.

Will there be a push to drop at open? Probably. We see that most days. Do I get the feeling that people "get" what they just saw a little better than autonomy day? Yes.

Hoping for a knee-jerk drop this morning, trying to swing trade a little to grab some extra shares in my trading acct. But can easily see us being up EOW.

 

[H Mak]

I have almost 50% of my wealth tied up in this one company and therefore want to know as much as is possible about my investment. The thing I appreciate more than anything is honesty. You do not get BS from Elon and his team, you get the truth. It is not dressed up with one eye on the share price, it's the full picture. Every one of them is full of enthusiasm and they all seem to be experts in their field.

The developments outlined yesterday improved my understanding of the future plans and reinforced my belief that my money is in good hands for at least the next decade. I thought it was brilliant.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The Deutsche Bank upgrade came with a target of $500.

Goldman raise from $295 to $400 and that not news either? How come I'm being made to dig around the internet for these updates CNBC?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Is this a new model on the drawing board? Looks like a fast hatch, a smaller Model Y.

 

[Krugerrand]

that, opening a new factory within 15 months, bringing the 4th mass produced product online, and driving autopilot to another 5-10% of driving complexity is a lot.

it just doesn’t seem like a lot when everything went well.

Exactly. The armchair quarterbacks have less than zero idea how difficult and how much work this whole enterprise is. Not a clue.

 

[Todd Burch]

Stock holding at this point is a good sign IMO.

 

[jhm]

Tesla goals:
- 200Gwh/y in 2022, 100GWh internal
- 3TWh/y in 2030

Thanks for your summary.

This growth from 200GWh to 3000GWh is 15X in 8 years. This is an annualized rate of 40%.

Battery production growth is the backbone to just about all growth for Tesla. So Tesla is sending a pretty strong signal that it intends to keep growing at 40% per year through the end of the decade.

Tesla's opportunity to grow is even higher. Given that decarbonizing the global economy calls for about 20 to 25 TWh of annual capacity, Tesla could shoot for 4 to 5 TWh by 2030. This would correspond with 45% to 50% annual growth rates respectively. There is a lot of upside to Tesla's 3TWh ambition. I have no doubt that Musk is thinking about how to get to 5TWh, but it does not serve shareholders to share this publically. Whether Tesla reaches 3 or 5 TWh in 2030 depends on just how aggressively other battery makers move. If the world is at risk of having less than 10TWh supply by 2030, then Tesla will have a strong motivation to stretch for 5TWh.