Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk: Tesla will be worth more in five years" | CNBC on youtube.com

Her absolute best comment: "You can't really compare Elon to Jeff Bezos, who just sells toilet paper online"

LMAO!

 

[bkp_duke]

Seems like today is going to be, like yesterday, another Friday. I wonder why the push down so early in the week.

They know delivery numbers are coming and they are screwed?

One can only hope.

 

[JRP3]

Paywalled

Not for me.

 

[humbaba]

The same way I moved past the first fire, the first not-a-recall, the first GS/MS/Moody’s downgrade, the first lawsuit, the first funding secured, the first journalistic hatchet job, the first lie, the first ‘stock price is too high’, the first disappointing ER, the first demand has plateaued, the first ‘I did not inhale’, the first NHTSA review, and the first ‘AP was on’ death in a Tesla:

whiskey in hand
smile on my face
finger pushing buy

Hey, don't you buy a share whenever someone says there is a demand problem? I see that you just said that "demand has plateaued" and one might that there would be a demand problem with news about "AP was on" or a lawsuit. With these new posts positing fit & finish issues on Fremont-made Model Y's and delaying purchases, isn't that another demand problem?

I don't mean to sound demanding, but as one cat to another, I think there might be a demand problem: whose going to sell you all of those shares?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I think the issue is:
Old anode contains 9x% graphite + <5% silicon
New anode is y% silicon + z% coating

So currently the actual silicon content could be quite low (~15%?) with a path to unlock much more, as they optimize the coating and get lifecycle data from production cells.

Thats what I assumed it was too. But, of course, Elon didn’t give us enough info to be 100% sure.

 

[Joe F]

My wife and I are planning on hitting the road in our cybertruck when the time comes. It would be fun to do it in a LARGE group.
Talk about free advertising. Can you imagine 100 cybertrucks traveling the country as a convoy!

Well, there's this buttershrimp rally cry.

 

[ggr]

Soon-to-be-ex-again-Mod: 17 posts moved to All anecdotes and discussion about Fit and Finish . Seriously, anecdotes don't prove anything until statistics are gathered. And clearly fit and finish issues don't impact the stock price. So there shall be no more discussion of such issues (or lack thereof... we have 3 Teslas and none have had F&F issues) in this thread. Finally, I will point out that this directive has been issued multiple times before.
--ggr

 

[zecar]

View attachment 593338

The leader was just a little upset that people were underwhelmed by battery day.

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

In the long run it doesn't matter. Tesla seems on the right track.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I'm curious about something Gene says in this video and I've heard others say. He says this BD presentation was 9.4 on a 1-10 scale of complexity, while the autopilot day was 9.8.
This might be because my background is in Chemistry, but I work at an Oslo high school with medium level students aged 16-19 (like all Norwegian high schools). I marvelled at how simplified this BD presentation was how they had made complex stuff very very simple. I thought this could be used for my 16yo sophomore students in compulsory generic science. While the chemistry was too simplified to be used by my chemistry students. I would rate the BD presentation a 4 or 5 on his scale. And I know Gene Munster seems to know his Tesla stuff.
So my question is this so easy to understand for me simply because it's well aligned with my knowledge base and speciality? Was this a simple presentation for you guys? Or are actually even the competent analysts that weak on what I would say is general science? If that is so how can they say anything about Tesla?

PS: I would rate the AP presentation as a high 9 as well, and I do have decent programming and computer hardware knowledge.
PSS: This is not written as a look at me I'm smart thing, but I'm genuine wondering?

Battery Day was definitely much more simplified than Autonomy Day. Both were way too hard for your typical ignorant American. No knowledge base to reason from. No practice reasoning. It's pretty shocking to those of us who are used to thinking.

Analysts... they're not just weaker than you imagine, they're weaker than you can imagine.

 

[Nocturnal]

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

In the long run it doesn't matter. Tesla seems on the right track.

I think it was pretty insane. I guess dancing girls and fireworks might have impressed more of the rubes but I'm fine with that.

I'm curious about something Gene says in this video and I've heard others say. He says this BD presentation was 9.4 on a 1-10 scale of complexity, while the autopilot day was 9.8.
This might be because my background is in Chemistry, but I work at an Oslo high school with medium level students aged 16-19 (like all Norwegian high schools). I marvelled at how simplified this BD presentation was how they had made complex stuff very very simple. I thought this could be used for my 16yo sophomore students in compulsory generic science. While the chemistry was too simplified to be used by my chemistry students. I would rate the BD presentation a 4 or 5 on his scale. And I know Gene Munster seems to know his Tesla stuff.
So my question is this so easy to understand for me simply because it's well aligned with my knowledge base and speciality? Was this a simple presentation for you guys? Or are actually even the competent analysts that weak on what I would say is general science? If that is so how can they say anything about Tesla?

PS: I would rate the AP presentation as a high 9 as well, and I do have decent programming and computer hardware knowledge.
PSS: This is not written as a look at me I'm smart thing, but I'm genuine wondering?

I don't think it required a chemistry background. I have a small bit myself (bio major before I came to my senses) but the chemistry wasn't the important part. The important bits were "this process will be improved by X%", "this tab-less design means we can place batteries directly into the car's chasis" etc.

People have been programmed to expect some kind of literal magic technology breakthrough. This is probably because the vested interests don't want incremental changes that would threaten their profits, but instead prefer to promise something far out in the future that would be a perfect technology.

It would be like people ignoring Moore's law because they were waiting for a quantum computer to show up. Meanwhile my watch has more power than the entire US did during the moon landings.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

To anybody who has been working on improving batteries, this was indeed very insane. That you can't see that isn't surprising.

 

[vikings123]

Seems like today is going to be, like yesterday, another Friday. I wonder why the push down so early in the week.

They know delivery numbers are coming and they are screwed?

One can only hope.

FWIW the volume is really low, like really really low. I think we are on track for one of the lowest volume days in a while. This is not specific to TSLA. It's probably because traders/investors are waiting for the debate tonight.

In the most recent past we have seen TSLA actually take a dip on great delivery numbers. In this case the stock has had quite a run up since the split was announced plus Factset estimate is for 141K deliveries. I guess I'm saying that unless we get a 150K delivery we could see a minor selloff. I would actually be fine with the stock consolidating around these levels until the Q3 ER.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

In the long run it doesn't matter. Tesla seems on the right track.

It was not 'insane'..in fact..it was 'mind blowing'...to the people that actually understood it. Just watch Sandy Munro and you will understand how mind blowing it really was. That guy does not get excited easily.....and it looked like he just won the lottery talking about the battery advancements and design Tesla announced.

 

[keydiver]

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

Sorry, but I have to disagree. Anyone who truly grasps the longterm implications of the new battery tech found it to be "very insane". Ask Sandy Munro. He was on the edge of his seat the whole time, ecstatic at the new designs. Most of us recognize that Tesla just doubled their lead over other EV competition, and we don't have all the insider info that Elon and his crew have, but can't release. Sorry if they couldn't dumb it down enough for the stupid ANALysts to understand it.

 

[GBleck]

Stopped counting; can’t count that high. We count by island (or mountain), yacht, and tiki bar acquisitions now. The difference between counting singles vs counting 1,000 dollar bills.

Island of Patroklos - Greece, Europe - Private Islands for Sale

 

[Cosmacelf]

Her absolute best comment: "You can't really compare Elon to Jeff Bezos, who just sells toilet paper online"

LMAO!

Funny!

You know what really bugged me about the Elon interview itself? It had been edited. A lot. That’s why Elon started off sounding so angry. Kara had already been talking to him for a while and the podcast started partway into a conversation. Who knows what Kara said that set him off. In that CNBC segment, she also let the cat out of the bag with reference to his 5 year stock price comment. Again, it was part of a larger conversation about long term trends, and that context was edited out of the podcast. Kinda important.

 

[ZachF]

Musk's choice to not do a better presentation. Musk's choice to tweet "very insane" in advance of battery day. There was no "very insane".

In the long run it doesn't matter. Tesla seems on the right track.

It was insane if you broke the numbers down. I did it earlier in the thread.

For instance, this battery would allow a ~850hp, ~500 mile range Model 3 performance that would cost less to build than the current one.

Overall the response from engineer/scientist types was extremely positive, but the response from Wall Street bros who can't beat the S&P wasn't... Probably sums up much of the problem with current-day America in that we seem to value the input of the latter over the former.

 

[zecar]

It was not 'insane'..in fact..it was 'mind blowing'...to the people that actually understood it. Just watch Sandy Munro and you will understand how mind blowing it really was. That guy does not get excited easily.....and it looked like he just won the lottery talking about the battery advancements and design Tesla announced.

Tesla was obviously going to announce the next order of magnitude scale of battery manufacturing. It's been clear for a couple of years that they would need to take on themselves implementing the scale needed. They presented the apparently competent plan that was expected. The upside had already been traded.

 

[Unpilot]

To anybody who has been working on improving batteries, this was indeed very insane. That you can't see that isn't surprising.

They should had rolled the new battery down a hill...with cool mood music.
Then have some slick hair smooth talkers explain why rolling batteries are so awesome.
In the background are some hot women in high heel's slowly touching the new cells.

In the end have have hector macho camacho fire off a fully automatic assault weapon into the cells./S

 

[ZachF]

Battery Day was definitely much more simplified than Autonomy Day. Both were way too hard for your typical ignorant American. No knowledge base to reason from. No practice reasoning. It's pretty shocking to those of us who are used to thinking.

Analysts... they're not just weaker than you imagine, they're weaker than you can imagine.

The problem with autonomy is it's a problem whose solution has an unknowable amount of work. Autonomy could be ready next year, or it could take another ten.

The path to these battery advances on the other hand, is far more concrete.