Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

I am confused... and perhaps you are?
So the German battery Factory tesla purchased because it was going to be shutdown due to a lack of buyers for its batteries...
WAIT FOR IT...
wait...
waaait....
Wasn't the reason that almost every German/European EV maker claimed their P&D numbers have been so low was because they could not get enough batteries?
You see why I am confused?

 

[gabeincal]

What do see as the market force for this? I am curious as I don’t see what is going to push the price down that far from where it has already fallen to after the “sell the news” part of production/delivery numbers last week.

Uncertainty in politics or politicians’ health.

 

[Joesantelli]

What do see as the market force for this? I am curious as I don’t see what is going to push the price down that far from where it has already fallen to after the “sell the news” part of production/delivery numbers last week.

For me it's overall weakness since last week in tesla. With no major sell the news events in the near term future and considering we are still at a lofty strike price from when the split was announced with Nasdaq and SPY trading near all time highs with political uncertainty and on hopes of a stimulus bill that's showing no signs of ever being passed. Also a covid second wave a democratic victory and how it would play out with a resurgence in shut down (impacting tesla factories) will create uncertainty.

I feel any overall broader market sell off will cause tesla to swing further down.

 

[Joesantelli]

Uncertainty in politics or politicians’ health.

Exactly

 

[Joesantelli]

The positive is none of the points I've mentioned except a huge split run up and no more near term fomo catalysts most of the negatives are external pressure so am still super bullish long term will likely be back in post earnings.

Would I short it ...no chance in hell but am I willing to take a risk on a possible better entry yes.

 

[CLK350]

Electrek - today: Tesla (TSLA) in talks with Indonesia govt to build new nickel venture - Electrek

Have to say, I like how Tesla is seemingly able to deal well enough with a problematic regime like China, considering it is so much at odds with the West, Germany (who one might think would be heavily influenced by the incumbent ICE carmakers), now looking to deal with Indonesia (rather corrupt country), ah but I forgot the elephant in the room the good old USA (sarcasm, but it's reality).

Also how Fred from Electrek seems to get scoops earlier than more Tesla friendly sites like Teslarati, Tesmanian or Insideevs.com .

 

[jerry33]

Yes, but spoofing is a tool of a larger criminal act, and that is market (stock) manipulation. Speeding, although most of the time innocuous, does have consequences, if someone is injured or killed as a result. The fact that market crimes are not enforced to the extent of the law is more emblematic of the fact that our regulatory bodies are captured, than anything else.

True, but the point was that corporations see this in the same light as we would see a speeding ticket.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Also how Fred from Electrek seems to get scoops earlier than more Tesla friendly sites like Teslarati, Tesmanian or Insideevs.com .

Fred is obsessed with "breaking news", a lot of media outlets are. It's super annoying considering literally no one cares. This little tidbit was all over the internet before Fred stumbled upon it today. Things are generally posted here before Fred's blog.

 

[LTC_RRR]

I'm suggesting Robo-taxi because in cities most will not have home charging, or even a place to park the car.

I visited a fairly typical home on an Indian family in a city once, it was in an apartment, there would not have been much, or any parking attached to the complex.

In Singapore and Sri-Lanka, I visited people wealthy enough to own detached hosing, that is not at all common. My understanding is even those wealthy enough to own detached housing definitely need Powerwalls and probably solar.

Those affluent enough to own a Tesla for their personal use can afford to set up home EV charging and even employ a driver. But they are a minority of the population.

I really doubt the grid is up to the task

 

[Mo City]

Have to say, I like how Tesla is seemingly able to deal well enough with a problematic regime like China, considering it is so much at odds with the West, Germany (who one might think would be heavily influenced by the incumbent ICE carmakers), now looking to deal with Indonesia (rather corrupt country), ah but I forgot the elephant in the room the good old USA (sarcasm, but it's reality).

Also how Fred from Electrek seems to get scoops earlier than more Tesla friendly sites like Teslarati, Tesmanian or Insideevs.com .

More often than not, Electrek is NOT the first to report news about Tesla.

Tesmanian often has Tesla stories Electrek and others never report.

 

[Curt Renz]

Sam Stovall is the chief investment strategist at CFRA. Sam and his father Bob were regular guests of mine on my old TV show. On September 4, CFRA raised TSLA to a BUY from a SELL. Below is an excerpt of what Sam wrote today regarding the effects on the market due to a president's illness.

Excerpt:

How will the equity markets respond to the President’s Covid-19 announcement in the week ahead? Even though the uncertainty ahead of the election increased, the stock market is a barometer of economics, not politics. History shows that most presidential health shocks were typically taken in stride. Indeed, as seen in Table 2, the deaths of presidents Harding, Roosevelt, and Kennedy, along with many other presidential medical surprises, resulted in declines of 3% or less for the Dow Jones Industrial Average that lasted just a few days. Only Dwight Eisenhower’s heart attack in 1955 and diagnosis of Crohn’s Disease in 1956 were greeted by declines in excess of 5% that lasted multiple months. In response to President Trump’s diagnosis, the S&P 500 fell 1.0% on the day, along with the growth index and five sectors. We see the market resuming its bull run after a presidential victory has been decided.

 

[Knightshade]

The positive is none of the points I've mentioned except a huge split run up and no more near term fomo catalysts most of the negatives are external pressure so am still super bullish long term will likely be back in post earnings.

Would I short it ...no chance in hell but am I willing to take a risk on a possible better entry yes.

If you think it's going down and are waiting to buy until it drops to that price, why wouldn't you sell a put for that price and get paid extra to buy it at the price you already want to and expect it to drop to?

 

[CLK350]

More often than not, Electrek is NOT the first to report news about Tesla.

Tesmanian often has Tesla stories Electrek and others never report.

Also https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/5046670/ mentioning Fred's Electrek isn't the first to report

That's interesting, maybe some algos show me updates via Electrek - I also had the distinct impression Fred especially had and posted the problematic news, which Elon wasn't happy about (these weren't reported in other sites) - will watch for this.
The latest one was, I think, Electrek having actual photos of the 4680 battery prototype, which appeared to be a first for that event.

 

[kcveins]

I thought my 30% annualized return was good. Proves that there's always someone better.

Acoording to an article on Bloomberg....

"After deducting enormous expenses—5% of assets, plus up to 44% of profits—the fund still has an average annual return of 39% over its lifetime, according to Zuckerman."

 

[hobbes]

I am confused... and perhaps you are?
So the German battery Factory tesla purchased because it was going to be shutdown due to a lack of buyers for its batteries...
WAIT FOR IT...
wait...
waaait....
Wasn't the reason that almost every German/European EV maker claimed their P&D numbers have been so low was because they could not get enough batteries?
You see why I am confused?

Tesla did not buy a battery factory. They did buy a small automation company similar to Grohmann that has (among other things) manufactured automotive battery production lines.

 

[hobbes]

That would be amazing. However, anonymous "source familiar with the case"...:

Tesla Giga Berlin: 4000 Workers Expected to Start in March for June, 2021 Production

 

[generalenthu]

Looks like IBKR note on increased margin is unrelated to TSLA and stocks in general. Here is the note and it makes a lot more sense.

Margin Increase
Dear Client,

To clarify last week's communication regarding U.S. Election Day volatility concerns, IBKR’s principal focus is on products having the lowest percent margin rates, in particular, U.S. equity index futures and their derivatives. Stocks generally have higher percent margin rates and will therefore not be affected by the announce changes.


IBKR plans to increase equity index futures and derivatives margins by the aforementioned 35%. By example, ES futures and similar products based on the S&P 500 index would go from a scanning range of approximately 7% to 9.6%.

Stocks, however -- both those under Portfolio Margin and those under the U.S. Reg. T margining model -- will not be impacted as their margin rates already exceed 20%. ETF’s on equity indices are already at margin rates higher than their futures equivalents, and will be similarly unaffected. Other asset classes including commodity products, foreign exchange, bonds, etc. will also not be affected.

As a reminder, this increase will be implemented gradually over a 20 calendar day period with the increase to Initial margin having started September 28, 2020 and the Maintenance starting October 5, 2020. You may project the impact of this change on your portfolio using the Risk Navigator Alternative Margin feature (“U.S. Election Margin” mode).



A list of the most widely held products affected by this change is available on our Knowledge Base.



Interactive Brokers Client Services

 

[amolina]

There are very few posters tonight. Everybody here ran away as the IV's got crushed?
I love you all in this Forum. Keeps my sanity and TSLA addiction intact in coming here .

Here is a noob question. I am mostly a stock and LEAPS investor.

Now, I am trying to sell a Put, and my margin seems to be increasing by about 5795 Euros. Can someone please correct me if my understanding is wrong. If I make this trade, I will be immediately credited with $728 ? When will my margin of 5795 Euros be freed up?
Also, how much cash I should have for being able to scoop up the 100 Tesla shares if it falls below 400?
40,000$ ?? This should be on top of margin I presume? Unfortunately, bulk of my core TSLA shares are not in this trading account. I should probably transfer all of my shares to this account to avoid the MARGIN penalty??

 

[Christine69420]

I love green days.

Just saying.

 

[phantasms]

Could whatever moderator deleted my post and said " You know that back-door comments like these just aggravate us moderators, and one day you will poke hard enough to provoke a real response. Don't do this numerology crap." please message me. I have literally no idea what on Earth the issue is that required bizarrely threatening language against a good standing regular supporting member and would love to get a sense of so I don't have to worry about a "real response" in the future. Maybe in the future signing off so we know who to talk to would be helpful. Thanks!

p.s. this is not sarcastic. honest request here.