Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ameliorate]

I’m a definite noob when it comes to trading, but trying to learn. People’s posts and the concept of max pain got me looking at maximum-pain.com. So right now max pain for 10/9 is near the current SP (a number that is apparently off-limits to joke about). For the week, 10/16, the value is $344, a significantly lower value. Then for future weeks the values return to closer to the current SP. so my question is what’s going on? Does this mean that more people are betting on a lower SP? I’m assuming that as we get closer to 10/16 the SP and MP will coalesce. Does that make sense?

It makes sense because not all options exist for the same time period. The 10/16 options have been available for the past 6 months, so if we go back to April-June, Tesla traded from 100-200 any puts bought at that time are completely underwater and will expire worthless but are not accurate of the sentiment today. Average those old bets in with newer bets and that brings max pain substantially higher (see 344 max pain instead of 150ish)

When looking at the "weeklies" 10/9 or the 10/23 these will only exist for about 6-7 weeks in total so are more up to date.

There's also yearly options which exist for about 2.5 years - These have the largest open interest as they've been in existence the longest. Often referred to as Leaps when years to expiry.

IE I hold some Jan 2023 calls but the price I picked today may be very deep ITM or waay under by that time. This influences Max Pain but the number I picked is likely to be far from the actual SP come 2023.

 

[Chocochip]

Electrek report earlier today: Tesla is literally the only automaker growing in Germany this year. The story is basically described in the title; below are the monthly and year-to-date sales in Germany:


Here's where things get interesting: Germany is not exactly unique in that trend. Today's UK new car registration numbers were accompanied by a similar table (below), where the last column shows, as above, the year-to-date change. One may notice that the bottom row, marked Other Imports, is one of only two that shows growth (the correct term would be "an approximate doubling") rather than contraction. The Other Imports category consists of Tesla (over 90% of registrations) plus exotics such as Bugatti, Ferrari, Lamborghini, etc., so it's fair -- and accurate, according to the Dept. of Transport quarterly data, published later -- to say that most of that growth is accounted for by Tesla's deliveries.

The only other make that shows growth Y-o-Y is MG, a British marque now owned by SAIC Motor Corp., whose sales consist in majority by the very popular MG ZS, a small-size electric SUV starting at about £25k which started to be delivered in volume in Europe in 2018 and doubled its sales in 2019.

And in case the point is not quite clear yet, some extra numbers: BEVs had a market share of 6.68% in the UK in September this year, according to the same SMMT report released today. It was 2.24% last September, and 0.68% the year before that. In the same 2-year interval, the ICE market share (incl. diesel) went from ~93% to ~81%, with the difference made up by hybrids and PHEVs. The exponential growth of BEVs should be evident to anyone other than Gordon Johnson.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

it we had a Mount Rushmore of Tesla Bulls: Cathie, Ron Baron, Steve Jurveston, and maybe Larry Ellison in a decade?

?!?! Where's Chamath? Or even Gali?! They've done far more to promote Tesla than either Jurvetson and Ellison.

 

[Destination]

?!?! Where's Chamath? Or even Gali?! They've done far more to promote Tesla than either Jurvetson and Ellison.

Steve does a lot behind the scenes but Gali and chamath deserve it for sure.

and Ellison took a 1 bil position at pre-split and likely brought a lot of firepower that we will hear about in the future.

I personally think UBS’ reversal and Ellison’s board position are interlinked.

 

[AudubonB]

it we had a Mount Rushmore of Tesla Bulls: Cathie, Ron Baron, Steve Jurveston, and maybe Larry Ellison in a decade?

Larry Ellison is worth $62.5 billion, and he put in just over $1bn for the 3 million shares he owns. So, as far as I'm concerned, he's going to have to ante up a LOT more in order to qualify. Until then? I, and a lot of others on this platform, have a greater claim to the sculptor's chisel.

 

[Thekiwi]

But scrappiness is one letter away from crappiness

I have never heard this phrase before, did you originate it? It is fantastic!

 

[Destination]

I have never heard this phrase before, did you originate it? It is fantastic!

no, it’s quite literally a SpaceX ethos. It’s repeated at hiring events and evident daily. Elon did not come solve our problems, we did. Daily, to the detail of design and manufacture. it’s marvelous to set this many engineers free. It’s why we want to be there and hate not being there.

Just inevitable a corner would be cut, or the pure bandwidth of development hits its peak and you’re “the next project” or something unforeseen during design occurs cause there’s hundreds of chefs in the kitche.. Isn’t even a “bad egg” situation, just the logical outcome of a tight and aggressive schedule.

 

[gabeincal]

ARK kept all TSLA shares.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Steve does a lot behind the scenes but Gali and chamath deserve it for sure.

and Ellison took a 1 bil position at pre-split and likely brought a lot of firepower that we will hear about in the future.

I personally think UBS’ reversal and Ellison’s board position are interlinked.

Why are you set on giving Ellison credit where he doesn't deserve it? Ellison joined TSLA's board back in Dec 2018. UBS didn't upgrade TSLA until 2020, even the $2B equity raise in Q4 2019 got UBS to be only "cautiously optimistic". The upgrade (for most of the analysts) were strictly from Tesla's own hard work. Ellison only brought money to the table, he didn't "promote" TSLA in any meaningful way.

Same with Jurvetson. Him getting Elon onto Trump's Advisory team actually backfired from a public perception viewpoint. And it's public perception that gets people to buy the products and thus enrich the company. The value of the stock does not help bring more buyers to the brand.

 

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 595649

IV has crept down to the ~83% level. IV percentile is at 31% meaning we have seen these IV levels or lower 31% of the time in the last year. 69% of the time we have had higher IV. With lower IV we are seeing option premiums decreasing.

I've stopped selling short term calls and purchased one March 2021 short term straddle (buying calls and puts at the same strike price). I'm speculating that we will see volatility go back up over 100%. To dollar cost average I plan on purchasing one straddle per week as long as IV is under 90%.

Once IV is up over 100% again I'll likely start selling short term covered calls at max strike.

Edit: typo

Important to note that an IV of 83% is still incredibly high for a stock. The only reason it looks cheap is due to the extraordinary volatility of Tesla stock trading over the last 12 months.

If Tesla resumes trading in a somewhat normal manner in a trading range for any extended period of time, IV % could be cut in half and option pricing collapse from what are now still very elevated levels.

Not an advice, do you own due diligence etc etc.

 

[Destination]

Why are you set on giving Ellison credit where he doesn't deserve it? Ellison joined TSLA's board back in Dec 2018. UBS didn't upgrade TSLA until 2020, even the $2B equity raise in Q4 2019 got UBS to be only "cautiously optimistic". The upgrade (for most of the analysts) were strictly from Tesla's own hard work. Ellison only brought money to the table, he didn't "promote" TSLA in any meaningful way.

Same with Jurvetson. Him getting Elon onto Trump's Advisory team actually backfired from a public perception viewpoint. And it's public perception that gets people to buy the products and thus enrich the company. The value of the stock does not help bring more buyers to the brand.

From my perspective, Steve has done a lot for Elon.

And, without stating some things I can only semi verify, just to keep is very simple; UBS doesn’t change their position on a company as disruptive as Tesla for funsies. When this much old money (UBS) is invested, it is logically not super receptive to market disrupters. Kinda the definition of old money..

 

[MABMAB]

Tesla Bull Rushmore?

Who was publicly the earliest big bull with large targets for TSLA?

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Oct 05, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Tesla Capped on Low Volume Day"

Traded: $19,030,607,283.96 ($19.03B)
Volume: 44,724,960
VWAP: $425.50

Close: $425.68 / VWAP: 100.04%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $396.652B / $183.039B = 216.70%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $383.90
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $248.77
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 53.9% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 39.2% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.49% of Short Volume (44th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "TSLA holds its breath while Wall St. inhales"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

US market according to Cox Automotive

All the September 2020 numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand? Seems a little bit of guesstimating going on, and the 20,000 units for Tesla in September 2020 (down 13.1%) seems way off, in that it seems way too low given the large number of Ys alone delivered in the month just to North America customers, in addition to the normal end of quarter S/3/X USA delivery rush.

 

[FrankSG]

it we had a Mount Rushmore of Tesla Bulls: Cathie, Ron Baron, Steve Jurveston, and maybe Larry Ellison in a decade?

Tesla Bull Rushmore?

Who was publicly the earliest big bull with large targets for TSLA?

Yeah, I say take off Ellison and replace him with @anthonyj . Whenever TSLA goes up 5%, he's like "$600 EoW, $1,000 EoY". Most bullish person I know.

 

[RobStark]

All the September 2020 numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand? Seems a little bit of guesstimating going on, and the 20,000 units for Tesla in September 2020 (down 13.1%) seems way off, in that it seems way too low given the large number of Ys alone delivered in the month just to North America customers, in addition to the normal end of quarter S/3/X USA delivery rush.

If Tesla doesn't release numbers by market how else do you arrive at numbers other than guesstimating?

The numbers are for US only not North America as a whole.

 

[Todd Burch]

Could whatever moderator deleted my post and said " You know that back-door comments like these just aggravate us moderators, and one day you will poke hard enough to provoke a real response. Don't do this numerology crap." please message me. I have literally no idea what on Earth the issue is that required bizarrely threatening language against a good standing regular supporting member and would love to get a sense of so I don't have to worry about a "real response" in the future. Maybe in the future signing off so we know who to talk to would be helpful. Thanks!

p.s. this is not sarcastic. honest request here.

Interesting. I got the exact same message and I didn't know what it was about either.

 

[Nolimits]

ARK kept all TSLA shares.

View attachment 595696

How do you see the actions of ark’s trading?

thanks for sharing

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Important to note that an IV of 83% is still incredibly high for a stock. The only reason it looks cheap is due to the extraordinary volatility of Tesla stock trading over the last 12 months.

If Tesla resumes trading in a somewhat normal manner in a trading range for any extended period of time, IV % could be cut in half and option pricing collapse from what are now still very elevated levels.

Not an advice, do you own due diligence etc etc.

This needs to be emphasized as I didn't mention it at all. 83% IV is certainly much higher than the average IV. Here are some examples:
Apple ~48%
Amazon ~50%
Microsoft ~39%
Walmart ~32%
Berkshire ~25%

Everyone should do their own due diligence. My belief is that volatility is going to increase again as wall street digests and reacts to Tesla's growth and increasing technological dominance in the EV and energy space.

 

[Cattledog]

it we had a Mount Rushmore of Tesla Bulls: Cathie, Ron Baron, Steve Jurveston, and maybe Larry Ellison in a decade?

So TrendTrader007 = Gutzon Borglum?