Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

That would be amazing. However, anonymous "source familiar with the case"...:

Tesla Giga Berlin: 4000 Workers Expected to Start in March for June, 2021 Production

So how many MIE Model Y would that be for 2022?

Some Shanghai comparison:
Construction began in December 2018 with the installation of secure fencing and site offices. The General Assembly Building was nearly complete by August 2019, and manufacturing line equipment was being installed for both batteries and automobiles. The plant began initial production of Tesla Model 3 cars in October 2019,[9]

Transport truck trailer rigs moved cars out by early December 2019,[34] and the first 15 cars from the new factory were delivered on 30 December 2019, to Tesla employees.[35] The first cars to be produced at the Gigafactory and delivered to Chinese customers were delivered on 7 January 2020.[36][37] Production rate was approximately 1,000 cars per week in early 2020,[38] made by a single shift of workers[39] with a total production line capacity of 2,000 cars per week when Saturday overtime is included.[33]

So around 3months to go to 1k week, which should be in September.
June+July+Aug: 3k
September: 4k
October: 6k
November: 8k
December: 10k

31k for the year? Is this too conservative? What’s your estimate?

 

[Ipe]

Could whatever moderator deleted my post and said " You know that back-door comments like these just aggravate us moderators, and one day you will poke hard enough to provoke a real response. Don't do this numerology crap." please message me. I have literally no idea what on Earth the issue is that required bizarrely threatening language against a good standing regular supporting member and would love to get a sense of so I don't have to worry about a "real response" in the future. Maybe in the future signing off so we know who to talk to would be helpful. Thanks!

p.s. this is not sarcastic. honest request here.

To me this sounds like a moderator who’s not really enjoying his self-encumbered task.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I have literally no idea what on Earth the issue is

I didn't see the post in question, but in general, they heavily frown upon what they refer to as "numerology" such as references to a stock price of 420 or 420.69.

 

[gabeincal]

I have bought cheap puts (which will expire worthless), for a dollar or two per contract, to satisfy margin calls from ETrade. No need to sell TSLA or deposit cash. For example, you could buy an Oct 9 $200 put and see how it affects your available margin.

Not advice.

@Tim S nailed it with this advice. I dipped into margin call this morning and purchased an Oct 9 $240 put for $7. My margin call is gone, though I'm not going to start investing this extra 'virtual' margin now. Thank you so much, this might help in the future, though I cannot wait to get rid of my margin usage once we get a spike...

 

[Boomer19]

There are very few posters tonight. Everybody here ran away as the IV's got crushed?
I love you all in this Forum. Keeps my sanity and TSLA addiction intact in coming here .

Here is a noob question. I am mostly a stock and LEAPS investor.

Now, I am trying to sell a Put, and my margin seems to be increasing by about 3000 Euros. Can someone please correct me if my understanding is wrong. If I make this trade, I will be immediately credited with $728 ? When will my margin of 5795 Euros be freed up?
Also, how much cash I should have for being able to scoop up the 100 Tesla shares if it falls below 400?
40,000$ ?? This should be on top of margin I presume? Unfortunately, bulk of my core TSLA shares are not in this trading account. I should probably transfer all of my shares to this account to avoid the MARGIN penalty??

View attachment 595625

check the generalenthu post prior to yours - and a few from sunday’s thread

ib generally has lower margin rates than most, unless your acct is large enough to warrant special treatment (as ggr or someone noted).

for a regular (10s of thousand to a few mil) account, even with increased margin due to election jitters whether applying to RegT or Portfolio margin, and depending on your portfolio concentration, cash available, ib seems lowest. at least by comparing larger brokers online.
however, IB tends to lean on the conservative side, as it’s more a ‘family/partner‘ run organization than the large brokers with large shareholders

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

There are very few posters tonight. Everybody here ran away as the IV's got crushed?
I love you all in this Forum. Keeps my sanity and TSLA addiction intact in coming here .
View attachment 595625

Can't help you with your question re IV (as I am HODL) but perhaps the lack of posters is due to the fact that we are still absorbing the Q3 P/D report, battery day etc. There has been quite a lot of comments regarding market expectations and the P/D actuals but one aspect that I do not believe has been addressed is that from a production perspective (when you take out the known down time in Shanghai) it seems that Fremont has been running close to the nominal rate at the end of Q2 whilst Shanghai appears to have been running a little below the target production rate (3k/week instead of 4k/week), probably due to battery pack constraints. So production execution continues to be pretty effective/efficient.

The apparent uptick in Shanghai production just before the 'factory inspection' and the reports of a third shift starting after the holiday at the start of October indicates that any battery pack constraints have been overcome (LFP) and it will be interesting to see what the new target production levels will be. Hopefully news on this in the Q3 ER. Also looking forward to news on Fremont. Has the capacity increase from 400k/year to 500k/year been completed (GA5, paint capacity improvements)?

The improvements in Shanghai and Fremont will both be required to enable Tesla to hit the 500k target for this year.

 

[Nocturnal]

Could whatever moderator deleted my post and said " You know that back-door comments like these just aggravate us moderators, and one day you will poke hard enough to provoke a real response. Don't do this numerology crap." please message me. I have literally no idea what on Earth the issue is that required bizarrely threatening language against a good standing regular supporting member and would love to get a sense of so I don't have to worry about a "real response" in the future. Maybe in the future signing off so we know who to talk to would be helpful. Thanks!

p.s. this is not sarcastic. honest request here.

420 jokes

 

[Fobble]

Could whatever moderator deleted my post and said " You know that back-door comments like these just aggravate us moderators, and one day you will poke hard enough to provoke a real response. Don't do this numerology crap." please message me. I have literally no idea what on Earth the issue is that required bizarrely threatening language against a good standing regular supporting member and would love to get a sense of so I don't have to worry about a "real response" in the future. Maybe in the future signing off so we know who to talk to would be helpful. Thanks!

p.s. this is not sarcastic. honest request here.

Are you a serious or repeated offender ? I have a few of my OT posts deleted, but I've never received any further threat. Maybe I'll get some because of this post

 

[ggr]

Could whatever moderator deleted my post and said " You know that back-door comments like these just aggravate us moderators, and one day you will poke hard enough to provoke a real response. Don't do this numerology crap." please message me. I have literally no idea what on Earth the issue is that required bizarrely threatening language against a good standing regular supporting member and would love to get a sense of so I don't have to worry about a "real response" in the future. Maybe in the future signing off so we know who to talk to would be helpful. Thanks!

p.s. this is not sarcastic. honest request here.

It was me. Believe it or not, one of the policies that moderators have to accept is not to discuss moderation decisions. But look at @Chunky Jr. 's reply and you will understand.

You wrote:

For the sake of the mods I'm hoping we don't hit 420 yet again.

p.s. I thought the message identified me. The forum software has limitations that aggravate the moderators. If I issue an actual warning, you see who issued it, but don't see whatever comment I made, so I've been writing warnings as part of deleting the messages, but didn't realize that you didn't find out who deleted the posting. Just another reason that I'm backing away from moderation.

Mod repeats pronouncement for about the tenth time: Do not post about magic numbers, period. Even in jest, because people feel like they have to respond. Three posts were deleted. --ggr

 

[phantasms]

420 jokes

oh. When I said I hope it doesn't hit 420 for the sake of the moderators I wasn't joking. I meant it as a nice comment for the moderators, wasn't being an Ahole. Ah well, I hope I don't get banned for discussing what I did wrong.

Love you all!


just saw the above.

Thank you GGR! <3

 

[Silentk]

So, yes, James Simons is legendary.

Did a quick Google on him, and I see that his surviving son (two were tragically killed in road and diving accidents) Nat Simons, is co-chairman of Renaissance and also a big clean-tech guy. Wikipedia: "Simons is also the co-founder and a director of the Sea Change Foundation, which focuses on climate change and clean energy policy." Seems quite positive for Renaissance - "one of the most secretive and successful hedge funds in the world".

 

[Blue horseshoe]

IV has crept down to the ~83% level. IV percentile is at 31% meaning we have seen these IV levels or lower 31% of the time in the last year. 69% of the time we have had higher IV. With lower IV we are seeing option premiums decreasing.

I've stopped selling short term calls and purchased one March 2021 short term straddle (buying calls and puts at the same strike price). I'm speculating that we will see volatility go back up over 100%. To dollar cost average I plan on purchasing one straddle per week as long as IV is under 90%.

Once IV is up over 100% again I'll likely start selling short term covered calls at max strike.

Edit: typo

 

[Causalien]

There are very few posters tonight. Everybody here ran away as the IV's got crushed?
I love you all in this Forum. Keeps my sanity and TSLA addiction intact in coming here .

Here is a noob question. I am mostly a stock and LEAPS investor.

Now, I am trying to sell a Put, and my margin seems to be increasing by about 5795 Euros. Can someone please correct me if my understanding is wrong. If I make this trade, I will be immediately credited with $728 ? When will my margin of 5795 Euros be freed up?
Also, how much cash I should have for being able to scoop up the 100 Tesla shares if it falls below 400?
40,000$ ?? This should be on top of margin I presume? Unfortunately, bulk of my core TSLA shares are not in this trading account. I should probably transfer all of my shares to this account to avoid the MARGIN penalty??

View attachment 595625

We are too busy making trades.

But if you can't answer these questions yourself, you should to stop trading options until you do.

Naked selling options is one way to go bankrupt really fast.

I am out and about on phone, so will let others answer in detail.

 

[Causalien]

Acoording to an article on Bloomberg....

"After deducting enormous expenses—5% of assets, plus up to 44% of profits—the fund still has an average annual return of 39% over its lifetime, according to Zuckerman."

And that's a number after expenses. Very impressive.

 

[wipster]

I love green days.

Just saying.

I don't know, I'm more partial to Widespread Panic and Alice in Chains...

Oh, you meant the stock finish! Yeah, me too.

 

[ggr]

There are very few posters tonight. Everybody here ran away as the IV's got crushed?
I love you all in this Forum. Keeps my sanity and TSLA addiction intact in coming here .

Here is a noob question. I am mostly a stock and LEAPS investor.

Now, I am trying to sell a Put, and my margin seems to be increasing by about 5795 Euros. Can someone please correct me if my understanding is wrong. If I make this trade, I will be immediately credited with $728 ? When will my margin of 5795 Euros be freed up?
Also, how much cash I should have for being able to scoop up the 100 Tesla shares if it falls below 400?
40,000$ ?? This should be on top of margin I presume? Unfortunately, bulk of my core TSLA shares are not in this trading account. I should probably transfer all of my shares to this account to avoid the MARGIN penalty??

View attachment 595625

When you sell a Put, you (and your broker) have to be prepared to buy the stock at any time since the buyer of the put can choose to exercise. So the broker withholds from your margin the same amount that it would use up for you to buy the stock at the strike price. But since they haven't actually loaned you the money at least they don't charge interest on it. The hit to your margin stays there until you buy back the contract, or it is exercised (in which case it gets turned into margin on the stock you just bought), or it expires.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I’m a definite noob when it comes to trading, but trying to learn. People’s posts and the concept of max pain got me looking at maximum-pain.com. So right now max pain for 10/9 is near the current SP (a number that is apparently off-limits to joke about). For the week, 10/16, the value is $344, a significantly lower value. Then for future weeks the values return to closer to the current SP. so my question is what’s going on? Does this mean that more people are betting on a lower SP? I’m assuming that as we get closer to 10/16 the SP and MP will coalesce. Does that make sense?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Excellent Forbes article on “our own” Cathie Wood.

How Cathie Wood Beat Wall Street By Betting Tesla Is Worth More Than $1 Trillion

“While most star stock pickers treat their work like state secrets, Wood makes Ark’s research freely available online and posts real-time logs of her firm’s trades. Instead of hiring MBAs, she prefers to bring onboard young analysts with backgrounds in subjects like molecular biology or computer engineering, figuring they’re more likely to spot the next trend.”

 

[Destination]

Excellent Forbes article on “our own” Cathie Wood.

How Cathie Wood Beat Wall Street By Betting Tesla Is Worth More Than $1 Trillion

“While most star stock pickers treat their work like state secrets, Wood makes Ark’s research freely available online and posts real-time logs of her firm’s trades. Instead of hiring MBAs, she prefers to bring onboard young analysts with backgrounds in subjects like molecular biology or computer engineering, figuring they’re more likely to spot the next trend.”

it we had a Mount Rushmore of Tesla Bulls: Cathie, Ron Baron, Steve Jurveston, and maybe Larry Ellison in a decade?

 

[lafrisbee]

Tesla did not buy a battery factory. They did buy a small automation company similar to Grohmann that has (among other things) manufactured automotive battery production lines.

I'll give you that, but EVERYTHING I have read states it was closed due to a lack of it being able to sell its batteries.