Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Investor Place - Oct 20: 20 Election Stocks to Buy if Joe Biden Wins in 2020
TSLA #1

Admiral Markets - Oct 1: Stocks That Will Benefit From Trump / Biden in the White House
TSLA #2

Stock News - Sep 29: TSLA: 2 Election Stocks for a Biden Win and 2 for a Trump Win | StockNews.com
TSLA #1

EDIT: This one was updated shortly after I posted. The original was from Sep 29 with TSLA #3.
Kiplinger - Oct 27: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing...t-stocks-to-buy-joe-biden-wins-the-presidency
TSLA #6

 

[bkp_duke]

Investor Place - Oct 20: 20 Election Stocks to Buy if Joe Biden Wins in 2020
TSLA #1

Admiral Markets - Oct 1: Stocks That Will Benefit From Trump / Biden in the White House
TSLA #2

Stock News - Sep 29: TSLA: 2 Election Stocks for a Biden Win and 2 for a Trump Win | StockNews.com
TSLA #1

Kiplinger - Sep 29: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing...01171/best-stocks-to-buy-joe-biden-presidency
TSLA #3

I was so excited to see TSLA at the top of that first link . . . then NKLA was right behind. Made me question the quality of the "research" performed.

 

[Mich]

I just noticed that Elon has a new sticky tweet. The "We must pass the great filter" is gone. Hm... Short shorts. Hm

 

[Cherry Wine]

Astonishingly low volume today. Can't wait to get this election over with!

Nice short shortz!

Agreed. It's pretty safe to assume that the election outcome will be the catalyst for TSLA to break at this point. Of course there's always the possibility of something unforeseen...

 

[Crowded Mind]

It was on the 2020 Q2 conference call:



Maybe you don't remember, but I'm pretty sure the stock price took a nose dive right about the time he said that on the call.

Pretty sure Elon was talking about trailing twelve months GAAP net income margin in that comment, which was 1.4% at the time. This is not future guidance.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

When is the last time TSLA traded only ~20M shares (4M pre split)? This is crazy.

And I get that the election may be playing into it, but looking around at other stocks, most of them are trading around 50-75% of average volume. TSLA on the other hand is the only large cap company I found trading 30% of average volume.

 

[jerry33]

And I get that the election may be playing into it, but looking around at other stocks, most of them are trading around 50-75% of normal volume. TSLA on the other hand is the only large cap company I found trading 30% of average volume.

Bots are down for maintenance.

 

[StealthP3D]

It was on the 2020 Q2 conference call:



Maybe you don't remember, but I'm pretty sure the stock price took a nose dive right about the time he said that on the call.

My point is, he never projected out 10 years. Remember, he's answering the question of a brokerage analyst. I'm not denying he guided for 1-2% profit margins over the next year or so, I'm saying he wasn't addressing their profit margins in 2030 and beyond. That's 40 quarters from now - brokerage analysts are lucky if they look one year ahead. This entire discussion is based on margins in 2030 for the purpose of considering potential valuations.

Elon led off the answer you quoted with:

Elon Musk — Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think we actually achieved both when you factor in autonomy. I think we can go
way beyond industry margins and have the car be affordable to more and more people
and potentially almost everyone when factoring in autonomy.

Right there he said he expected margins to increase to industry leading levels! That's not 1-2%!

If you can't provide a quote in which Elon is addressing expected margins in 2030 then you can't claim he guided for 1-2% for the next decade. In fact, he said the opposite. That margins would increase to industry leading levels.

 

[lafrisbee]

The monetary system we have is only limited by economic productivity, something Elon is doing a good job of blowing wide open!

EXACTLY. I quit reading every post that talks about the impossibility of a company becoming XXTrillion because wealth is created, not static.

 

[hobbes]

Giga Berlin paint shop is starting to be equipped:

https://twitter.com/Gf4Tesla/status/1321052920067096579
(GEICO TAIKI-SHA is the Italian/Japanese company supplying GF 4)

 

[Artful Dodger]

S&P inclusion will be like the Spanish Inquisition - it will happen when nobody expects it.

Said inclusion also requires a fanatical dedication to the Pope.

Cheers!

 

[mrmage]

The FSD updates seem to be progressing and China news is good, so I Increased my total Tesla investment by another 5%, with DITM Jun 2021 210c at $223.

If I'm wrong, there's so little time value that I should be able to roll these (if necessary) for just a few percent.

 

[lafrisbee]

...............it will happen when 'only a select few know about and have adequate time to act on the information'. FTFY

In addition to the 10Q and the Short Shorts cryptic message pointing towards S&P500 inclusion IMO, I will share what I believe has been another very consistent/reliable weather vane for TSLA share price movement, and one that also recently pointed to another near term TSLA upward move. Our broker called us last week 'to see how we were doing', and 'if we were happy with our current position in the market'. First time we have heard from him since just before the last long upward move started just a little over a year ago. We have a Household Investment Bylaw very similar to ARKK......except our position on TSLA is capped at 98% of our portfolio - a bit higher than ARKK's at 10%. And on a couple other occasions prior to that we received similar calls encouraging us to consider lightening up on our TSLA position since first accumulating shares in that account in early 2013 - and almost without fail, a nice move started soon after. Coincidence?

This is another example of the value of Chamath's focus of 'Observing the Present' instead of getting caught in the past or future for market observation. The usually accepted Social conditioning has attempted to program me over the years to either take my broker's advice and sell some of my position (so that WS can pick it up cheap before a move up), or to reject my broker entirely after seeing the potential for manipulation over time and move our account elsewhere. Observing the Moment means I tell my wife "Hey, our broker just called again suggesting we reduce our TSLA position.......standby for lift off!"

I would imagine my experience is not unique among the members of TMC..........and it means that there are a handful of folks that have sufficient time to act on the information before it is unveiled to the rest of us. And where better to hide a forecastable move (spike from S&P500 inclusion) than right before an election that has caused many small investors to want to reduce their positions and potential down-side exposure - which further enhances WS's ability to pick up a lot of shares that would very likely be sold off just before that inclusion. My thoughts regarding the call from our broker............TSLA Longs are holding stronger than expected and disproportionally reducing their market exposure before the election using other stocks than TSLA

Brilliant logic on the availability of stock for S&P to buy in regards to investors fearing the election "unknown."

 

[Knightshade]

Pretty sure Elon was talking about trailing twelve months GAAP net income margin in that comment, which was 1.4% at the time. This is not future guidance.

The quote was in reply to someone asking Elon about FUTURE profitability. So it was explicitly future guidance.

we’re not trying to be super profitable either, obviously, profitability is like 1% or something, just 1% or 2%.
It’s not crazy. Last quarter, it was only like 0.1%. So we want to be profitable.

Like I think just we want to be like slightly profitable and maximize growth, and make the cars as affordable as possible, and that’s what we’re trying to achieve.

Trying to achieve. As in the future.

Slight profits and maximize growth and increase affordability of the cars is what they are trying to achieve As in they are heading there going forward. That's their future guidance.

 

[Artful Dodger]

net profit margin for Tesla at 10% versus apples 21% ,
Would imply double the number of cars (13;650,000) for an equivalent total profit.

Or, that would imply a take-rate of 50% on FSD. That alone increases Tesla's net margin to match Apple.

Software eats the world.

 

[Crowded Mind]

The quote was in reply to someone asking Elon about FUTURE profitability. So it was explicitly future guidance.




Trying to achieve. As in the future.

Slight profits and maximize growth and increase affordability of the cars is what they are trying to achieve As in they are heading there going forward. That's their future guidance.

lol... "profitability *IS* like 1% or something, just 1% or 2%."

Said when profitability was 1.4%. Super clear.

 

[StealthP3D]

I was so excited to see TSLA at the top of that first link . . . then NKLA was right behind. Made me question the quality of the "research" performed.

Most of the financial press just writes garbage. Most of them don't know anything about what they are writing about (or they would be multi-millionaires, not journalists). I try to keep my brain unpolluted and basically ignore them. It's worked really well for me for 30 years.

At best, they are ignorant of their subject, at worst they are deliberately trying to distort for their own gain at your expense.

 

[MP3Mike]

lol... "profitability *IS* like 1% or something, just 1% or 2%."

Said when profitability was 1.4%. Super clear.

No profitability was 0.1% at the time, just like Musk said. So they are trying to improve profitability 10-20x, but then hold it there while they expand and make their products more affordable.

 

[StealthP3D]

No profitability was 0.1% at the time, just like Musk said. So they are trying to improve profitability 10-20x, but then hold it there while they expand and make their products more affordable.

That wouldn't qualify as "industry-leading margins". So we know Musk plans to go way beyond that as they continue to innovate and reducing the cost to manufacture.

 

[Unpilot]

Sigh...there are none so blind as those who will not see.


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