Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

That wouldn't qualify as "industry-leading margins". So we know Musk plans to go way beyond that as they continue to innovate and reducing the cost to manufacture.

Aren't you confusing two different things? The margins on the cars can be industry-leading, while the profit of the company is still only 1-2%. (Hey, aren't we already sort of there? Margins on the cars are 20+%, but the company is less than 1% profitable. )

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

My plan is - when TSLA is valued at:

• 10x of today: Sell 10%
  
• 50x of today: Sell 20%
  
• 100x of today: Sell half.

Rest: Keep. Enjoy dividends.
Plan is subject to change and renewed yearly.

(May take ~20 years for dividends to come into consideration, but building a viable civilization on Mars is not cheap - a steady huge cash stream in form of dividends is perhaps useful)

When I wrote this two months ago I was halfway joking.
The other half was a sort of reluctant and disbelieving yet growing feeling that Tesla under Musks leadership might perhaps pull a white swan out of his hat and steal the monopoly board.
I got a lot of flack and ridicule for that post - people thought I was crazy (... jury still out ...)
Since then a handful of noteworthy people are openly and with some degree of seriousness discussing 10, 20 and 40T valuations. Even august AudobonB - wow!
Welcome to the raging bull pen!
Since some also refer to Warrens recent youtube episode and my implicit prediction predates his, there can be only one salient conclusion: I have to start a youtube channel immediately !


[Shoutout to FrankSG whose most optimistic scenarios is > 40T and predates mine - read his blog, highly recommended]

 

[StealthP3D]

As a company grows, it’s more difficult to maintain a sustained percentage of growth over time. Typical growth strategies include geographic expansion, extending product/service offerings, vertical integration, creating new markets, innovation and efficiency gains, and mergers/acquisitions.

Most companies struggle to achieve any kind of substantial and sustained growth, but Tesla is on track to do it on all fronts. 20T market cap seems out of reach by 2030, but if any company can do it, it’s Tesla. I think it might take longer, but if Tesla continues to do what they are doing and more of it, then it is possible.

I guess I could say it's "possible" regardless of how unlikely I think it is. But just 2-4 more years changes the likelihood considerably.

40T by 2034 is a lot more doable than by 2030.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Sigh...there are none so blind as those who will not see.


Tesla Stock Is Still a Sell — but Self-Driving Cars Make It Worth a Little Bit More

Itay Michaeli
Citigroup
Wall Street Analyst
Ranked #6,879 out of 7,016 Analysts on TipRanks
He is still a moro#. (you have to guess the finish)

 

[StealthP3D]

Aren't you confusing two different things? The margins on the cars can be industry-leading, while the profit of the company is still only 1-2%. (Hey, aren't we already sort of there? Margins on the cars are 20+%, but the company is less than 1% profitable. )

The main point is that Elon was not guiding for 2030 which is what this discussion is about (the long-term valuation potential of TSLA). Yet certain characters keep taking his comments out of context and pretending like he was guiding forward indefinitely.

It's ridiculous!

 

[EVortex]

I guess I could say it's "possible" regardless of how unlikely I think it is. But given just 2-4 more years changes the likelihood considerably.

40T by 2034 is a lot more doable than by 2030.

Doubling market cap at that size is so difficult - Elon will have to take his magic to a whole new level.

 

[StealthP3D]

Doubling market cap at that size is so difficult - Elon will have to take his magic to a whole new level.

No company has ever been that large before so it's kind of difficult to analyze how difficult it would be to double. If TSLA makes it it will be because they are a diversified conglomerate in the most valuable sectors of the economy, not just as an automaker. They might even be making integrated home energy/HVAC/water heating systems by then - all tied into a Tesla energy sharing network.

 

[Drumheller]

The main point is that Elon was not guiding for 2030 which is what this discussion is about (the long-term valuation potential of TSLA). Yet certain characters keep taking his comments out of context and pretending like he was guiding forward indefinitely.

It's ridiculous!

The transcript of what Elon said was posted earlier today. It is ridiculous how you are adding things that Elon did not say to push your viewpoint. I hope you're right about the future valuation, and I have learned quite a bit from your posts, but in this situation you are attempting to change what Elon said.

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. If investors get rich from that, it is a side effect, not the goal. Elon has already demonstrated that he will lower prices even when Tesla is supply constrained because he cares more about the mission than profits.

And that's a good thing because the world is further along with global warming than most realize, and we humans are in deep *sugar*.

 

[EVortex]

No company has ever been that large before so it's kind of difficult to analyze how difficult it would be to double. If TSLA makes it it will be because they are a diversified conglomerate in the most valuable sectors of the economy, not just as an automaker. They might even be making integrated home energy/HVAC/water heating systems by then - all tied into a Tesla energy sharing network.

Agree, the point was really about how much more difficult it is to double market cap as you continue to grow.

Many terafactories all over the world, tesla batteries in just about all powered products, grid replacement/supplement everywhere, tesla clean green homes and appliances, transportation and data networks everywhere, machines that make the machines across the globe, neural software to drive all tech - you get the idea.

I only ventured to consider $20T, but $40T is even more of a stretch. I don’t want to say impossible, but I will say improbable even in 15 years.

 

[Ocelot]

First, apologies for any harshly worded messages you might have received from me as a moderator. As @Right_Said_Fred said, many of them we don't have any control over, but some we do, and it's possible I got you mixed up with someone else and assumed you should have known better.

Second, one of the big complaints we (as moderators) get is that people discover that they can't actually delete their accounts. (We can't delete them either. The forum admins are the only ones that can, and almost always won't.) Your posts are here to stay, as are Karen's.

Interesting when you click to go to the orignal post by @SOULPDL you cannot see it.

The moderation on this board once again takes a negative toll. not troll. toll. It has been fairly common place that shorts get driven away by bullying , being called trolls, when in fact they might just have a different view.(which is a negative in my view for the health of the discussion) But it is even more disheartening to see that a valued member feels bullied. The trend seems to be, informative posters , leaving. We as a group need to address that. Time and time again it seems the mods responses seem worse than the alleged foul. The stuff the mods take offence to, like the 420.69 seems so trivial, compared to the so numerous off-topic things that clutter this thread. And , even if it is off-topic , you might want to ask what was the intent? That's my main problem. The moderation seems arbitrary. It seems to be more based, on personal feelings (ie. i will eliminate 420 talk, but any talk of islands is fine) than on any objective measures.
I used to donate , and this is probably my main reason I stopped financially supporting this forum.
Either way mods need to be more conscientious in their choice of words being used in our community.

 

[ZeApelido]

I just noticed that Elon has a new sticky tweet. The "We must pass the great filter" is gone. Hm... Short shorts. Hm

That was my response to my mommy when she asked why I wet my pants.

 

[ZeApelido]

I did.

He said they want it to be 1-2%.

And that it's 0.1% right now

So obviously 1-2% is aspirational for the FUTURE since it's one tenth that amount when he said it.


.





no, I've directly quoted facts and company officers to counter the fictional speculation of a few people in here with unrealistic expectations and a great desire to ignore literally what the CEO tells them

Seems more useful than pretending to not understand Elons exact words, or pretending to add your own so he's saying something different.


As always facts that a few folks don't like get cast as trying to do something nefarious though.

I'm 100% focused on the smooth flow of accurate information.

You seem more focused on the smooth flow of whatever you personally believe

Mine seems more useful to investors- yours seems more useful to cheerleaders.

That's okay.

The CEO also said the stock would be higher in 5 years than it is now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

When is the last time TSLA traded only ~20M shares (4M pre split)? This is crazy.

Lowest TSLA volume through 4 PM since Nov 18, 2019 (345 days ago).

 

[Knightshade]

That wouldn't qualify as "industry-leading margins". So we know Musk plans to go way beyond that as they continue to innovate and reducing the cost to manufacture.

Again you appear to be conflating vehicle gross margin (which is industry leading for Tesla) and company-wide net profit margin- which is most assuredly not and which Elon explicitly said going forward they intend to remain quite small- citing 1-2% specifically

The company intends to instead focus on making the products much more available to those who can't currently afford them- and continuing to invest in growth to insure they can build a whole lot more of them for those folks to get.

You know- accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Lol, Starlink's beta testing internet is called, "Better than Nothing Beta" which is quite on the nose for the first run of a new thing. Goodness, I love the humor in these companies.

SpaceX rolls out Starlink internet "Better Than Nothing Beta" in the US and Canada

 

[dl003]

Doubling market cap at that size is so difficult - Elon will have to take his magic to a whole new level.

"The stock price is too low, IMO"

 

[traxila]

Yeah, so I am good with 2 trillion, as long as BEVs dominate the roads. Globally.

I am even good with staying right where we are. As long as BEVs dominate the roads. Globally.

 

[EVortex]

Again you appear to be conflating vehicle gross margin (which is industry leading for Tesla) and company-wide net profit margin- which is most assuredly not and which Elon explicitly said going forward they intend to remain quite small- citing 1-2% specifically

A consistent 1-2% profit can grow $$$ profit on a large scale with significant revenue and efficiency increases.

 

[Knightshade]

A consistent 1-2% profit can grow $$$ profit on a large scale with significant revenue and efficiency increases.

Absolutely. 1-2% of a very big number is still a big number.

The entire topic was in reply to someone who was doing a 40 trillion dollar valuation in 2030 based on massively higher net profit margins though- double digits.

That's what was being corrected with Elons words and with which a couple of folks...took issue.

 

[aubreymcfato]

OT.
Lady Gaga drives a Model X and now everyone knows it:
https://twitter.com/ladygaga/status/1320932579550216192

(also, please vote well, pretty please)