Starting w. $200B Market Cap as of Jun 30, 2020, then projecting forward 15 years to $40,000B Mkt Cap, that's a CAGR of 42.36%
CAGR Calculator - Calculate Compound Annual Growth Rate Online
That's slightly less than what ARK expects (45%), but the issue remains the time frame.
IMHO, Tesla is setting itself up to have production capacity to manufacture 20% of the World's battery cells by 2020 in 10 years from now (3 TWh / 15 TWh).
Now the real question is, "Does the ROW even try to catch up with Tesla?" Or do they just let them run (and sue them later
)
If it turns out that by 2030 the ROW is not trying to '
accelerate the transition', then Elon and Tesla will simply keep on hoovering, continuing to build out battery capacity to provide enough for the entire world.
How long would it take to do 5x more batteries (3/15 TWh)? Well, going from 3 to 15 TWh of batts in 5 years is only a CAGR of 38%.
So indeed, Tesla can grow at (or below) Analyst projections for the next 10 years, then have that growth slow down incrementally over the next 5 years, and
STILL reach $40T Market Cap by mid-2035
Of course by then, TSLA will have 40B shares and Elon will own 49%...
Cheers!