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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Someone may have already pointed this out but I recall a few days back someone tried to extrapolate when FSD would reach robotaxi levels by the improvement rate after 1 week. There are probably two flaws in that extrapolation logic:
1. The improvement rate for data will decrease in the rate of improvement the better it gets, slowing the improvement curve
2. Right now there are only like 100? better testers collecting data. When it gets safe enough for the general public but not safe enough for Robotoaxis there will be 1 million people collecting data. 1,000 times more data from a much wider array of environments and edge cases.
I'm hoping that 2 is much more significant that 1. Given the general idea of how important data is to models like autopilot I have to assume it is but who knows.
1. The improvement rate for data will decrease in the rate of improvement the better it gets, slowing the improvement curve
2. Right now there are only like 100? better testers collecting data. When it gets safe enough for the general public but not safe enough for Robotoaxis there will be 1 million people collecting data. 1,000 times more data from a much wider array of environments and edge cases.
I'm hoping that 2 is much more significant that 1. Given the general idea of how important data is to models like autopilot I have to assume it is but who knows.
You may have heard of Wright’s law. Cathy talks often about it. The cost of goods goes down by a certain percentage for every doubling of the production.
Left to market forces alone, solar panels wouldn’t have achieved the current price levels and certainly not in the current time frame. The same goes for electric cars. Tesla benefitted from a government loan, subsidies, regulations (credits), and even then it took a multimillionaire to gamble his total fortune to achieve success. And he is not exactly your average guy when it comes to vision and intelligence.
Like people who have been raised with a particular religion all their lives, it is hard to look at facts and consider the possibility that you are wrong. So, I understand that it is hard to consider when you have been raised in a culture where you are taught that any interference by government is bad, but governments do good stuff too.
edit: It is also of interest to note that while in the US many people agree that the government wastes money, they don’t agree what it is wasted on. The consensus hides differences in opnion
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Until they get Dojo fully operational, training will be a bottleneck.
But 1. is the more significant factor short term, we should have 3-6 months of rapid improvement, followed by Dojo 3-6 months later
Worst case scenario IMO, 3 months of rapid improvement and rollout, followed by 6 months of waiting for Dojo.
For the FSD Beta, the rapid improvement we have seen, is probably because data gathered with the FSD beta is better for training the FSD beta. Once the FSD beta goes to most common places and experiences most common situations, we may hit the plateau where a lot of training and development is needed for a new unusual edge cases...
Again we are speculating that there is a possible plateau, rather than knowing there is a plateau.. Maybe the apparent plateau will just be that improvement is less noticeable.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
This is one of Rob's better videos and, IMO, he is the best Tesla analyst out there at this time. He has a better grasp of what's going on and what's at stake than anyone (and I'm not talking about quarter to quarter detailed financial analysis, although he's near the top there as well). No, what impresses me is his ability to follow how the story is unfolding using logic to make accurate deductions. This is not possible if one doesn't have a great grasp of the subject matter.
Watch and learn!
Well it is made in America... North America. However, regardless of the demand, Ford is going to have difficulty selling a substantial quantity of these eStangs because dealerships will be selling them, I believe they will have a tough time getting enough batteries, and finally as this is Ford's first modern electric car I forecast a large amount of recalls and problems. And then there is the charging issue. Home charging may not be a problem, but on the road? And also software updates... maybe the dealers can take care of that during the recalls!
I wish Ford well, but they have a lot of lessons yet to learn IMHO.
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I keep forgetting about this component. I really dont think its possible for any traditional auto company to ever produce a tesla killer simply because of this
Ah yes, the Pintostangs! I wonder if they too exploded when the rear bumper was touched (remember "Top Secret!")?
Texas Gigafactory. Discussion at the start about the vibration isolation foundations used for the presses. Good progress over the weekend, there was lots of work going on both Saturday and Sunday (in contrast to Gigafactory Berlin).
A bit later in the day, nothing particularly different:
And late afternoon:
A bit later in the day, nothing particularly different:
And late afternoon:
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I know its been said. But I hope we can all be civil over the next few days. If you are on this forum you have likely done well for yourself this year. There really isn't much of a reason for anyone of us to express personalized anger. Obviously there are differing opinions about what should happen in this election, but it really doesn't do any good to be at each others throats.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Who cannot see themselves in a Tesla, and why? What does Tesla fail to offer that Ford doesn't?
Pezpunk
Active Member
nothing, but that doesn't mean these people don't exist anyway.
i'm not saying it's rational, but it's undeniable there's a significant subset of people who, for whatever reason, have a fiercely negative opinion of Tesla; people who will not be swayed through conversations with friends or colleagues, and for whom it doesn't matter what the side-by-side comparison says.
To some extent, every brand -- Ford, GM, BMW, whatever -- has its cadre of irrational haters. But I think Tesla has probably at least double the number of other car brands. Kind of a counterweight to Tesla owners, who are notoriously (even, yes, sometimes obnoxiously) positive about the brand. (side note: it may be just the social circles I occupy, but i've actually run into more progressives who hate Tesla than conservatives who hate Tesla. As a progressive myself, that frustrates me)
Anyway, the point is, the Mustang will probably do quite well, and sell a lot of units to people who still think of Tesla as an expensive niche luxury brand that is too risky to buy from since it's always on the brink of bankruptcy.
And let's face it - it's hard to blame someone for having that impression, if, like a normal person, they don't particularly follow automotive news very closely, and any time they do happen to hear Tesla mentioned on TV, it's accompanied by some face saying it's a house of cards that could crumble any minute.
German engineering firm Saueressig to set up battery cell production equipment in GF Berlin and Texas. Already at work at Kato Road.
Saueressig said to set up cell production for Tesla - electrive.com
Saueressig said to set up cell production for Tesla - electrive.com
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't worry - ARM powered MacBooks is polarising for sure but it will blow over quickly enough.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1323590567234838528
BMW CEO Zipse "We react very flexibly. If one day the whole world buys only electric cars, we will make only electric cars. But we cannot assume that this will be 2030,"
BMW CEO Zipse "We react very flexibly. If one day the whole world buys only electric cars, we will make only electric cars. But we cannot assume that this will be 2030,"
Zipse is correct, it will likely be earlier for almost all applications.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
OK, now that's funny. As if they will just be able to flick a switch and "voila, we're competitive!"
Dan
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