Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Successful BMW pilot takes control of sales process from dealers | Autocar
BMW getting there at a snails pace.

 

[mejojo]

Funnier words were never said: This event (stock split) makes no appreciable difference to the SP.

I will go to my grave laughing about that one.

I once worked for a company that was trading at $2 and someone convinced them to to a 1:5 reverse to get to the $10 level, which the claim was $10 more attractive to investors. There were 1/5 as many shares and they returned to the $2 level within 3 months.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Pretty easy to avoid selling early when you know Q4 is going to be a monster.

That's what's so great about the Dec 21 date. It's less than two weeks from final Q4 numbers. With the holidays that shouldn't be enough time for many to want to 'sell the event' and have time to get back in again.

Personally I'm just glad we can get this out of the way. I haven't done any short term moves at all since the 'expected inclusion did not happen day'. Not knowing if S&P would be announced after any random closing bell or in six months took away any possibility of predicting where the price would be even a day ahead.

 

[strago13]

Bought some Jan 15 2021 570 calls at open

 

[MABMAB]

465.90 recent high.

The overnight crowd around here, talking about going to bed to each other seems strange. (Insert unrestrained humor) Get an island.
Robinhood crowd wants to own more.

I've chatted with a real estate investor, wants to sell all his rentals and buy more for the run through end of year, the 2x in 2021, and the 10x for FSD. Just putting my finger on the pulse of things on the street.

 

[gabeincal]

Bought some 12/24 600's at open...pricey but I just had to get back into gambling!

This forum feels like an AA meeting in times like these.... Just one more!! Just one more!!

 

[Pezpunk]

Mongols were once treated like barbarians, wasn't legitimately recognized (e.g., TSLAQ and MSM).

2020 will be the year of reckoning, a turning point in the history book.

May we Musketeers endure through doubt, ridicules, personal attack, only HOLD on the divine mission of saving humanity to thrive in the year of Resilience, and we shall conquer the territory of old guards and bring the technological disruption to the whole mankind.

Yuck, i have rarely heard a word that repulses me more than "Musketeers". I'm not a cult member or a cheerleader. It's dangerous and foolish to rally around an individual as if he were a god. I look at Tesla and I see a company that is poised to inevitably dominate multiple markets, by virtue of both it's trajectory and it's current position. In Musk, I see a CEO who is very very smart, insanely focused and driven, and incredibly good at identifying the perfect way to attack problems (operates from first principles, resists reasoning by analogy).

But also in that man, I also see a human being who makes mistakes. He has proven prone to confirmation bias, and his takes on COVID (for example) have been consistently flat out factually wrong (and he's made other mistakes too, let's not lie to ourselves, please). This doesn't mean he isn't a great man doing great things for humanity (and, coincidentally, my portfolio!). But he is not infallible, it's embarrassing and dangerous to pretend he is.

 

[copyhacker]

Thinking out loud here:
...
Summary:
I am torn between a supply and demand theory (i.e. S&P 500 inclusion permanently reduces supply and therefore permanently increases price)

And a true value theory (i.e. a share will only be bought and sold in the long term for what the intrinsic value is, and therefore S&P 500 inclusion should only cause a temporary pop).

Anyone have any ideas as to which theory is more correct?

Excellent first post, welcome to TMC.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This morning feels like just an instant unwinding of all the shenanigans from the last 3-5 weeks, not yet real short covering.

Tempted to close out my Friday calls, but I'm gonna wait. Some folks will be getting margin calls any moment now!

 

[MABMAB]

Well, disagreed with by 42 members and found funny by 6....
This may not be the reason for that, but I was on the money.

And if someone around here started a Patreon for you and you got a $4 donation you could buy a cup of coffee for all the good your claiims do.

Focus on the money, not being right. Perhaps stay out of the stock, you can't get it right. First you want to buy when it dips, then you sell cause you are a day trader.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

This forum feels like an AA meeting in times like these.... Just one more!! Just one more!!

I can quit buying $TSLA anytime I want. I just don’t want to right now.

 

[Nocturnal]

Cramer on CNBC complaining that young traders have a heard mentality and invest in the obvious. Is there a more on-point description of Cramer himself?

Anywho..... apparently that was your premarket TSLA coverage. Explain the math behind what's happening? Nah. Explain the timing of all this so investors can trade from a more informed place? Nah.

I was actually musing on this topic this morning. I was thinking about all the older CNBC investors watching their programming and chuckling at the "robinhood traders" who don't know much about investing and just go on instinct. Irony.

Thinking out loud here:
...
Summary:
I am torn between a supply and demand theory (i.e. S&P 500 inclusion permanently reduces supply and therefore permanently increases price)

And a true value theory (i.e. a share will only be bought and sold in the long term for what the intrinsic value is, and therefore S&P 500 inclusion should only cause a temporary pop).

Anyone have any ideas as to which theory is more correct?

Two thoughts regarding supply and demand. This requires rationality and/or symmetrical information to work properly. So if we Tesla bulls are irrational (we think the stock is worth more than it objectively is) and refuse to sell, then supply will be unnaturally restricted. If we have better information (we know it's worth more because of vision/research etc.) and won't sell because of that, then supply will be unnaturally restricted.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Absolutely dead on. Have wife’s friend begging to see/demo/ride/drive our Y and S. So much so they are quarantining themselves for two weeks prior to Thanksgiving weekend. MIT grad and working at Lockheed Martin. I should also bring up SpaceX?

You should also print out an application for SpaceX for him

 

[corduroy]

Let's see if the MMD can push us under $450 on a day like today.

 

[mikevbf]

Why would people be selling after open? I mean, don't they know a lot of shares are REQUIRED to be bought? Seems like easy money to buy and hold for a month...but what do I know?

Papafox as of this morning thinks a lot of the price movement over the last months are due to careful trimming from institutions uncomfortable with so much of their value in TSLA after such a quick rise. Some of the selling might be them continuing to trim. When that comes to an end, I expect some serious fireworks. Now that TSLA is so big, we need to get more into the institutional mind set to figure the where to and when of TSLA's value. Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts (note: if you have questions about his assertions, it is better to discuss those in this thread than his)

 

[EVMeister]

Let's see if the MMD can push us under $450 on a day like today.

It did.

 

[lafrisbee]

Popped onto Bloomberg and CNBC hoping for some business news....all I'm getting is political rants about taxes.

These guys clearly sell their airtime to hedge funds for a lot of their revenue. It's just dawning in me that lobbyists probably buy just as much time and trot their Congress puppets out there to spout their agenda.

Why anyone would turn on a TV as their primary source of information is beyond me.

I'll give you the only reason to get information from the idiot box. I used to Captain the lifeguards on the beach down here in Florida. I made all the guards watch the news before coming to work (this was back in the last century).
The reason being they had to deal with the public. So they had to be prepared to answer the stupid questions generated by the TV news.
Like, Did you see the shark, yesterday? or is it safe to go in the ocean? The guards knew exactly what was happening in the water. Sometimes they tourists would throw us a question that would make us look dumb because there wasn't any truth to it.
In day trading I imagine it is quite important to watch the news, and not just know the facts.
Also the guards were NEVER allowed to talk to the news. They even got me one time. Flat one foot waves, clear water, slight offshore breeze (kept the baitfish and in turn the sharks, and the jellyfish out to sea). The news shows up and wants to do a piece about the ocean as Memorial Day Week end started the next day. I gave them some sound bites about how good it truly was.
They asked but what if a shark showed up. I went through the protocol without embellishing it. That night "The News" lead off with "Here is what the lifeguards will do when a shark shows up." Not how unlikely it will be, not "if," but when. They also didn't show my beautiful svelte body and how calm I stated it was unlikely we'd see a shark tomorrow. They made it more scary.
Lust like TSLA.
The news does not change. Just the topic.

 

[MABMAB]

Papafox as of this morning thinks a lot of the price movement over the last months are due to careful trimming from institutions uncomfortable with so much of their value in TSLA after such a quick rise. Some of the selling might be them continuing to trim. When that comes to an end, I expect some serious fireworks. Now that TSLA is so big, we need to get more into the institutional mind set to figure the where to and when of TSLA's value. Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Which is a change, or him/her admitting mistakes. Use what people think to sharpen your own opinions, not to follow blindly.
percent of this writing tagged to short sellers: 43%

 

[StealthP3D]

I think stock market comparisons with anything that happened in December 1999 are not going to be apt.

Every event has unique dynamics and plays out under different circumstances so any comparison must be discounted due to those differences. Having said that, don't discount anything simply due to the passage of 20 years. Things are not very different now vs. 20 years ago and many of the same forces are at play, primarily greed and fear.

 

[Favguy]

Cramer is an example of the typical "professional investor"

They do great explaining things after they happen.

But are bad at seeing things coming up that don't fit their current knowledge base.

It took Cramer to get to TSLA after seeing his wife and daughter love the car.

If you are investor you have to be self curious. You have to be out there actually living on the bleeding edge. You have to be buying the Tesla, getting a Peloton, trying all the streaming services, getting the latest iPhone, using Facebook, hell even making sure you have posted on Tik Tok (well maybe not that far, but at least make sure to have any young folk in your life explain it)

You can't be that guy holding a Blackberry, driving a 10 year old Lexus, watching HBO on cable... just kind of settled into life and not moving forward. (Which is fine, but not for investing)

You have to be living as much as possible in the future, ahead of everyone.

And that is the best way to place smart bets on future growth opportunities.

Cramer was lucky in that TSLA took a big dip before the run up and was able to just make it in just in time.

But he really deserved to miss it.

Hmm... You don't always have to be any of those things, I've been all in on TSLA since early 2012, at the time I did drive an old car, and still don't own a Tesla!, preferring to drive a lower cost EV in order to keep holding more shares. I still have a cheap, crappy, none Apple phone and laptop. I'm also not usually a very early adopter. (Exception being EV's due to my EE background) By rights I should still be poor and TSLAless, lol!!