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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
QS is getting crushed on what looks like standard fud. If anyone was annoyed to miss the last run-up.
What a joke this MMD has become. These clowns are playing it in both directions and the SEC couldn't care less. I mean, is there really anyone scared this morning and selling? No. So why should these guys get to take advantage of such large SP swings?
What a joke this MMD has become. These clowns are playing it in both directions and the SEC couldn't care less. I mean, is there really anyone scared this morning and selling? No. So why should these guys get to take advantage of such large SP swings?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I think his particular talents and skills would probably be more broadly useful. I'm thinking in terms of positioning the products (energy and cars) for the European markets. A very important role.
Ed Niedermeyer and acolytes tweeting out this article today.
The Biden Administration Needs to Do Something About Tesla
The Biden Administration Needs to Do Something About Tesla
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Can you be specific? You know - in terms of index tracking funds vs. benchmark funds and when they would be buying.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Now this pisses me off to no end. I know, I know, more FUD.
But crying out to big brother Gov when you cannot win on a level playing field . . . and after you have spent billions cheating behind the scenes with the shorts to take Tesla down . . .
I need to take a walk. Too pissed off after reading that.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tasha (and ARK Invest generally) have been doggedly pursuing this
- they have literally no inside knowledge of the rate of progress on the AI front (they should grok 'exponential' progress, sheesh)
- Tesla has ZERO interest in becoming a customer service company like Uber/Lift with tons more staff and bloated call centers (look at how they do 'Service' now for a hint)
- the REAL money in FSD in the near/mid-term is in long haul trucking (replacing expensive labor with cheap capital), and that's nearly the opposite of what Tasha is talking about
- does ARK even know about the existing Tesla ride hailing service 'Tesloop'?
TL;dr Let Tesla do Tesla. Uber will do Uber.
Cheers!
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dc_h
Active Member
Assuming Q4 is nearly as good as many of us expect, I think a credit rating upgrade could happen. Rating changes are lagging indicators and subject to momentum. Cash flow should be amazing, even with 3 plants being built. Wall Street is being put on notice with S&P inclusion and Q4 should be the final wake up call. Cash on hand over 15 billion, operating income over 1 billion and on track for 2 billion by Q4 2021. Tesla will probably only project 800,000 car production in 2021, but barring another 2020 cluster of a year, should be closer to 1 million, with over 55 billion in revenue and a path for similar growth in 2022. TSLA may fall after S&P inclusion is done, but Tesla fundamentals will drive the stock again in 2021.
At some point in 2021, they will announce a new compact car, below the Model 3. Normal Elon style would be to do that in Q1, after Shanghai Model Y production is running, but I think they want more time to get the Y production higher, and to possibly update the S&X platform. The addition of a higher volume compact $25,000 or less car, with a late 2022 production target will give Tesla a path to nearly 100% growth in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Interesting issue with a rating upgrade, many funds won't buy Tesla now, since it is junk status. An upgrade to investment grade, should add demand for TSLA stock again. Pension funds and other long term investors are blocked from the stock today, so an added ~10% of the float could be soaked up next year.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Tasha (and ARK Invest generally) have been doggedly pursuing this business plan for years now. Here's the problem:
ARK Invest isn't well-positioned to select MORE profitable business lines to Tesla than Tesla is themselves. IMHO, ARK will do better if they stay in their lane. The "Wright's Law" analysis was text-book stuff, but it's unclear how Tesla benefits from contorting itself into "temporary Uber-lite".
- they have literally no knowledge of the rate of progress on the AI front (they should grok 'exponential', sheesh)
- Tesla has ZERO interest in becoming a customer service company like Uber/Lift with tons more staff and phone ctrs
- the REAL money in FSD in the near/mid-term is in long haul trucking, and that's nowhere near what Tasha is thinking about
TL;dr Let Tesla do Tesla. Uber will do Uber.
Cheers!
Very good points. But I would suggest you might be wrong about the first one - that they are under-estimating the rate of FSD progress. It seems to me that Tasha's focus on launching initially with human drivers is merely to be able to hit the ground running when FSD is ready.
But, yeah, maybe not such a good idea.
584$, did not see that coming. Thought we might be testing 600 today, but looks like we might have to wait for that.
Tesloop was shut down long ago as a ride hailing service. (It turned in to a car rental company.)
Cape Coddess
2 Roths full - holding!
Personally I'm thinking it'll drop back into the four to five hundred range. If it doesn't then I won't be disappointed.
Why would anyone be selling right now? Yesterday I can understand, with some uncertainty around the S&P announcement. But today? Are the current sellers afraid that it will take too long for the index funds buying to start - 2 weeks - and the SP will not hold up? Or are we at the mercy of shenigans again?
I used to post on Slate a lot. It's definitely gone downhill over the years. Unfortunately they have really gone down a "big tech is bad" path. At the same time posting about the critical danger of climate change. Don't worry, I'm ripping it up in the comment section.
I went to the pool and came back still angry. This FUD is more dangerous than most because it effectively uses true data to build an untrue conclusion. This FUD is not stupid, it is purposely deceptive,
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Reminds me, I need to go buy some calls.
Time to make more money off the idiots.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I know it looks like FUD but, in this case, I think the author might just be a highly educated individual who is uninformed about the actual statistics and how Tesla's FSD works. He certainly seems to have a background in urban transport and believes in climate change and the need for sustainability. I think he just doesn't understand the technology and the attached risks and the rewards.
Sometimes people just need to be educated (and not by the fudsters). It's likely he has no first hand experience with the technology.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I don't think it is an education problem (my 0.02). I think there is some behind-the-scenes money being moved around to "incentivize" people to write tripe like this.
I think a ratings upgrade is well overdue.
At the time the current ratings were given Tesla was losing money and was beholden to the capital markets should sales not meet expectations. It also had a vastly different balance sheet and equity value - so if Tesla did need/want to raise cash to cover debt repayments there could have potentially been high (relative to now) dilution or the potential for Tesla not to be able to raise enough equity to cover debt repayments. Although from my perspective the chance of these things occurring were low, there was a plausible rationale for conservative ratings agencies to issue a low rating.
Now Tesla could just pay all their obligations in cash and still be fine. And they have substantially higher free cashflow compared to their debt balance than at the time the ratings were given - providing additional support to the likelihood of obligation repayment. They could also just issue more shares to cover their debt obligations while incurring only minimal dilution. That's three strong arguments that Tesla can easily cover it's obligations as they fall due - which is all a rating is trying to measure in the first place.
@JBRR Can you see from your Bloomberg terminal what the implied rating Tesla's debt is trading at currently?
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