Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

Imagine thinking there will be another stock split like 2 months after one just occurred...

Spiegel was banned from Twitter. Not sure why but he had just made fun of Elon’s weight.
Twitter

Ahh, sweet justice. You love to see it. I hope it's a permanent ban!

 

[mickle]

Can they do a partial split? I've never heard of such a thing but that doesn't mean anything.

1.9 for 1

(Sorry if this is already been mentioned but I'm many pages behind. Man, you guys are moving fast!)

3-for-2 stock splits are not uncommon, that would be 1.5:1

edit: at a SP of 630, a 3-for-2 split would bring it back to 420.

 

[Speedy Chinook]

Can't believe Michigan actually did this after they reached a settlement with Tesla earlier this year.

Michigan House lawmakers backtrack on agreement that would have allowed Tesla direct sales and Service Centers in the state - Drive Tesla Canada

 

[jamaatta]

I wonder if biomining is being considered by Tesla here on Earth for their mining plans--it has the potential to be cleaner and more cost efficient than current mining techniques. And Elon did say he didn't want to divulge all the secret ingredients during Battery Day...

Biomining may have potential on Earth, too. It has been used in Finland for some years. This Talvivaara mining site is sadly infamous because of lots of leaks to the surrounding environment. Hopefully things are going better in the future.

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/talvivaara/

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

That site is bogus. Not criticizing ByeByeJohnny for finding a bad source, but those who rated his post informative. Y'all need to put your thinking caps on. That site listed 2016-2019 outstanding shares as 800+ million, when we all know there was a 5:1 split in 2020. That's literally impossible. Instead go to the source, Tesla itself.

On the first page of Tesla's Q3 10-Q filing:
"As of October 20, 2020, there were 947,900,733 shares of the registrant’s common stock outstanding"

And for reference, here's the first page of Tesla's Q2 10-Q filing:
"As of July 20, 2020, there were 186,361,726 shares of the registrant’s common stock outstanding."

So there's still room to issue a 2:1 split, but I doubt they would do that. Tesla needs to maintain some head-room to issue ISO's (incentive stock options) for any new-hires Tesla adds to the payroll.

Thanks for correcting this. My original thought was that Tesla was close enough that Elons stock compensation could become a problem. Even with other employees getting shares it seems like there would be time for a 2:1 split and still get approval to raise the number before Elon makes them blow through 1 billion.

Then I found what I linked and I didn't check it enough. First result so just goes to show how much incorrect info is out there.

Sadly that's the second time today Google let me down today. As someone who normally questions sources to an annoying degree, says my GF at least, that's disappointing. I guess I just assumed they had adjusted the number for the split, and yes I get that doesn't make sense either, so they seemed at least somewhat reasonable. Sorry.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If 2B shares is the limit, Elon's recent compensation plan takes a 2:1 split off the table (without other actions).
101.3M (post split) shares to potentially grant, putting the combined total over 1 billion shares.

As do the other option based plans: 52M earmarked for the 2019 equity incentive plan, 5.3M (75% met) under the 2014 performance based awards, and 2012 CEO compensation plan (90% of 26.4M).

Data from: https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000156459020047486/tsla-10q_20200930-gen.pdf

Indeed, but Elon's CEO comp. shares don't have to be issued immediately (see below), and Tesla could always do a 4:3 split, or a 3:2 split, etc. Here's recent share inventory, Per #223205:

July 20, 2020 shares: 186,361,726 * 5 = 931,808,630 (split adjusted)
Oct 20, 2020 shares: 947,900,733
Diff Oct-Jul = 16,092,103 shares
Sep 09, 2020 Equity raise = 11,142,000 shares (issued for $5B Cap raise)
Remaining shares unaccounted for = 4,950,103 shares (approx.)​

Elon earned 2 tranches in Q2 2020, so we'd expect a little less than a 2% increase in the number of common shares after Elon's shares are issued (the exact number of shares to be issued was fixed in the 2018 CEO comp plan, but let's approximate his shares owing for now).

So, the remaining unaccounted for shares (4.95M) represent only about 0.52% of total shares outstanding. While this could easily represent stock-based compensation for other employees, officers and directors (who are known to be selling), but it's clearly not enough to cover Elon's CEO stock-based compensation (by a factor of 8).

The straighforward conclusion is that Tesla hasn't issued Elon's stock yet. IMO, Tesla may not issue the stock until it's unemcumbered (available for the Market), 5 yrs after those options vest. Remember, one of the terms of the CEO comp. plan is that Elon remain CEO, or Chief Product Architech, throughout the withholding period. It's not until then that the stock could be released by Tesla.

Let's watch what the share count is on the Jan 2021 SEC filing. We could also back-check the 2020-Q1 share count, since we know that Elon earned 1 tranche in June 2020.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can they do a partial split? I've never heard of such a thing but that doesn't mean anything.

1.9 for 1

(Sorry if this is already been mentioned but I'm many pages behind. Man, you guys are moving fast!)

LOL, a 19:10 split would mess up Options contracts, but they could do a 3:2 split for example, or other round numbers would be easier to split, like 5:4

But I also would need to read the company bylaws, to see if its allowable for the BoD to increase the share limit now, and have it ratified by vote at the next AGM.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

3-for-2 stock splits are not uncommon, that would be 1.5:1

edit: at a SP of 630, a 3-for-2 split would bring it back to 420.

Yeah, that's great, but as @Curt Renz rightly points out, TSLA needs to be normalized back into the $200s range before they can be added to the Dow 30. And those guys desparately need the new blood...

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can't believe Michigan actually did this after they reached a settlement with Tesla earlier this year.

Michigan House lawmakers backtrack on agreement that would have allowed Tesla direct sales and Service Centers in the state - Drive Tesla Canada

The fine print:

"Even though the bill has been passed by the house, it is not law yet. It still needs Senate approval and the governor’s signature, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the bill be sent back to the house for changes."​

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (Democratic Party) would run afowl of President Joe Biden's New Green Deal if she signed that bill, which has so far only been passed by the Michigan House of Representatives (majority Republican).

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

For those wondering: Burry is short Tesla since $400 level

Pre or post split?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pre- or post-split apocalpse?

FTFY (cue the X-men theme music).

Cheers!

 

[FireMedic]

Sorry for the basic question…I read through many of the pages from today posts, I couldn’t find out why we are suspicious that there could be another stock split near term.

Would it just be to mess with the MM‘s, hedgies, and get into the Dow 30? Or has there been other suggestion of this by Mr. Musk? Thanks

 

[saniflash]

Would it just be to mess with the MM‘s, hedgies, and get into the Dow 30? Or has there been other suggestion of this by Mr. Musk? Thanks

only a phantasy on this board here thus far, nothing has been announced or hinted at by official sources

 

[BabyBull]

FRA: TL0 is at 483.03 = $586 USD. Seems there may be a good day tomorrow. All the cheap calls will be gone!

 

[SO16]

Can't believe Michigan actually did this after they reached a settlement with Tesla earlier this year.

Michigan House lawmakers backtrack on agreement that would have allowed Tesla direct sales and Service Centers in the state - Drive Tesla Canada

I just emailed my local rep. I am so disgusted by this. Better not pass as is.

 

[Causalien]

Can't believe Michigan actually did this after they reached a settlement with Tesla earlier this year.

Michigan House lawmakers backtrack on agreement that would have allowed Tesla direct sales and Service Centers in the state - Drive Tesla Canada

Little underhanded maneuver like this is why I believe the legacy dinosaurs need to be dragged to the future kicking and screaming.

Not that your everyday ppl will understand all these shivs in the dark that Tesla has to go through. All they will say is "Source" or "I don't believe you."

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

All discussion of battery startup QS, whose only link to Tesla is JB Straubel, can now be found at All discussion of QS. It was given a head start with 15 posts.

Two reminders:
- When posting ‘big news’, first check if someone else has posted it before. That’s almost always the case.
- We don’t need daily stock price updates of NKLA, NIO, QS and others in the EV space.

 

[StealthP3D]

Spiegel was banned from Twitter. Not sure why but he had just made fun of Elon’s weight.
Twitter

Uh-oh. Now what's he going to do all day?

 

[Zaxxon]

Uh-oh. Now what's he going to do all day?

 

[Tslynk67]

Uh-oh. Now what's he going to do all day?

He's using his ALT account - which doesn't have the $TSLAQ blocklist applied: https://twitter.com/StanphylCap