Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tachyon]

I really don't understand Gary's thinking sometimes and he has been wrong many times.

Take this tweet by him: Gary Black on Twitter: "No one knows what the $TSLA supply / demand dynamics will be next week. We know indexers need to buy 120M shares. We have no idea how much of 760M float will be presented by sellers to meet that demand. We know TSLA up 59% since 11/16, which is a lot more than 16% float needed." / Twitter

Why is he comparing the share gain percentage to the 16% float needed to be bought by index funds. Those two numbers have no relation. The more important factor would be the volume since S&P announced inclusion and how much of the buying volume, in terms of how many shares have been bought over the past 3 weeks with the intent to sell on inclusion date, verses the shares needed to be bough by index funds next week. That's the equation that will determine where Tesla ends up on next Friday.

I have been following Gary Balcks tweets recently
I am glad he is not my financial advisor
I am surprised he at one time even managed a fund
A 16% float that needs to be bought by indexers , if not available can lead to a much much higher gain in share price
I don’t understand his reasoning and I now am a strong believer that his reasoning is faulty
He still tends to think and operate by his archaic investment models
It’s frustrating that many people Follow his musings and invest based on his illogical faulty assumptions.

 

[traxila]

I have been following Gary Balcks tweets recently
I am glad he is not my financial advisor
I am surprised he at one time even managed a fund
A 16% float that needs to be bought by indexers , if not available can lead to a much much higher gain in share price
I don’t understand his reasoning and I now am a strong believer that his reasoning is faulty
He still tends to think and operate by his archaic investment models
It’s frustrating that many people Follow his musings and invest based on his illogical faulty assumptions.

I concur. I am really tired of this guy being brought up as some sort of authority. He is clueless. I could do without the constant references to his tweets.

 

[Singuy]

This is not directed at you Curt or the substance of what you're posting.......But I'm so tired of the narrative being pushed that Tesla(and some of the other stocks he calls out) is being driven higher by young investors, or just retail investors at all. The total money being used by retail investors is a tiny....tiny drop in the bucket when compared to institutional investors, banks, and hedge funds. There's really no comparison. Yet I keep seeing this narrative painted and it's gotten incredibly tiresome.

Especially as Tslas share price increases. We are getting to the point that Robinhood retail investors are back to buying fractional shares again. Like that's going to put a dent on our daily volume.

 

[madodel]

Why? Is it just because everyone around her has a Tesla or is there something she doesn't like about BEVs?

Technophobia maybe. I can only guess. Despite my having my X for 5 years, she still never trusts the charging system for long trips despite our having done a few long trips in my car.

She has frequently told me she likes Lexus' service department. They have comfy chairs and a coffee and pastry bar with an attendant. Lexus will also drive here and pick up her car (we are about 40 minutes away). Sadly I remember when Tesla would do that also. That will never be Tesla again. That's just "progress". Now I have to drive an hour and a half and hope they have a loaner if I can't wait. Currently have an appt for the MCU1 problem. Anxiously waiting to see if they contact me so I can tell them that if it is more than a day I need a Tesla loaner. Uber credits are useless. She would never deal with that. Maybe I can talk her into a Jaguar ePace or an Audi. Too bad Toyota hates BEVs. She'd probably buy a Lexus BEV.

 

[SeaNile]

Given the recent run up and the S&P date is there anything that would preclude you from buying say $100k worth of shares this week? Is it "safer" to wait till after the inclusion date to see where things settle?

 

[Tachyon]

Especially as Tslas share price increases. We are getting to the point that Robinhood retail investors are back to buying fractional shares again. Like that's going to put a dent on our daily volume.

Just my 0.02 from personal
Observation

I believe a large part of RH investors are well to do high income earners.
Since I bought my first Tesla , I have been preaching to my colleagues and peers for the past 5 yrs to buy a Tesla and to invest in TSLA.
Having personally experienced the phenom that are MS and MX and the tech behind them coupled with the customer service and convenience of mobile service units , I have been prodding them to buy into TSLA for the past 5 yrs
A good number of my colleagues are not ready to buy Tesla yet( I will eventually
Succeed , I am confident ) ,but they have begun buying TSLA over the past 6 months.
They are now more bullish than me and have not stopped buying even now.
This story , I am sure is repeating all across USA.

When I speak to friends overseas , I find that they tend to follow Tesla more keenly than my friends stateside.

Tesla’s mission statement resonates across the globe , we even here in TMC are oblivious to its reach across the continents, even in places where Tesla currently
doesn’t have a physical presence .makes me feel that I am too narrowly
focused on Tesla’s
Performance in USA and China and that inadvertently makes me bearish on Tesla’s future .
“Tesla is the other pandemic”.

 

[OrthoSurg]

This is not directed at you Curt or the substance of what you're posting.......But I'm so tired of the narrative being pushed that Tesla(and some of the other stocks he calls out) is being driven higher by young investors, or just retail investors at all. The total money being used by retail investors is a tiny....tiny drop in the bucket when compared to institutional investors, banks, and hedge funds. There's really no comparison. Yet I keep seeing this narrative painted and it's gotten incredibly tiresome.

Like if millenials money was the sole responsible for the 700% TSLA 600B stock surge in 2020.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Mr. and Mrs. General Public have no clue as to what Tesla is all about and where Tesla is going. They rely on Mass Media which is just dreadful. Not to be outdone by @Krugerrand I asked by 83 year old Mom to undertake a reconnaissance mission. She knows I drive a Tesla however has no idea I own shares in the company and I have never spoken of such. I simply asked her the send me an email every time she hears something about Tesla on the radio or TV or from friends or whereever/whomever. She is to tell me what the just of the message was and whether it was said in a positive or negative light. I received my first coded message at 1:21pm this afternoon:

"This is what I just heard on business news...and what I remember...
Shares down1&1/2 %. Although they are still up 650 % ( whatever that means) They are looking to raise 5 billion dollars RE shares....did not get that all...
They are planning to build a New place in Germany but plans have been put on hold as the place where the plant would be, would mean clearing a large Forest area and that would endanger snakes! That is what they said!"

Keep it up Mom, down there in the trenches. I love ya!

You may rate this post funny, but it is not. No wonder Mr. and Mrs. General Public are so misinformed about Tesla. My colleagues, family and friends have absolutely no idea. None. You can't blame them.

The only thing I don’t get is how TSLA has been gaining so much value while there has been so negative press.
The investors cannot be only the deeply informed investors spending 30-90mins each day to speak about the company plans, read on the Tesla news and watch news update on Tesla.
Morgan Stanley analysts just woke up but how many deep pocket investors have actually started buying in silence to avoid all the press related to it.

 

[Knightshade]

Given the recent run up and the S&P date is there anything that would preclude you from buying say $100k worth of shares this week? Is it "safer" to wait till after the inclusion date to see where things settle?

Depends what your intent is.

If you want to hold shares for a while, sure go ahead.

In the short term it's likely to go higher up to/into the real inclusion period... and it's likely to pull back a bit after that...

But nobody can say with confidence how much or when- and if you're holding long term you don't care as it's generally going to keep going up from here long term.

And even if there was going to be a pullback after inclusion period (which likely runs to as late as 12/28)- you're gonna have Q4/full year 2020 delivery numbers probably 1 week after that... and Q4/full year ER a few weeks after that... so any dip might be a somewhat narrow window anyway.

If you want to try and get a bit of a discount I suppose you could sell a couple of Dec 31 puts (though you'd need a bit more cash on top of the 100k to cover both) in hopes of getting paid to buy shares you want anyway... but you risk it not pulling back quite to your strike (or pulling back so much as to negate your premium depending how high you set it).

If you want to just try and turn some quick profit on the expected inclusion spike... well... you're a couple weeks too late to get the best of that (leveraging into options mid-late Nov would've been the play there- you still could buy some Dec 24 or 31 calls I guess but they're a lot more expensive than they were just a couple weeks ago-potentially too expensive to be worth buying at this point, while shares at least don't come with an expiration date.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Just my 0.02 from personal
Observation

I believe a large part of RH investors are well to do high income earners.
Since I bought my first Tesla , I have been preaching to my colleagues and peers for the past 5 yrs to buy a Tesla and to invest in TSLA.
Having personally experienced the phenom that are MS and MX and the tech behind them coupled with the customer service and convenience of mobile service units , I have been prodding them to buy into TSLA for the past 5 yrs
A good number of my colleagues are not ready to buy Tesla yet( I will eventually
Succeed , I am confident ) ,but they have begun buying TSLA over the past 6 months.
They are now more bullish than me and have not stopped buying even now.
This story , I am sure is repeating all across USA.

When I speak to friends overseas , I find that they tend to follow Tesla more keenly than my friends stateside.

Tesla’s mission statement resonates across the globe , we even here in TMC are oblivious to its reach across the continents, even in places where Tesla currently
doesn’t have a physical presence .makes me feel that I am too narrowly
focused on Tesla’s
Performance in USA and China and that inadvertently makes me bearish on Tesla’s future .
“Tesla is the other pandemic”.

I think you might be right.
2 of my colleagues have just saw my complete peace of mind toward our OR time being cut because of the pandemic. I don’t really care anymore if my job income drops 20-30%. When they say the TSLA rise. They jumped on the train. One bought 28 shares, the other successively several tranches of 50 shares during the ride after S&P inclusion announcement.

Some new long term more conservative investors are joining the party. They are both non Tesla owners too.

 

[Singuy]

Just my 0.02 from personal
Observation

I believe a large part of RH investors are well to do high income earners.
Since I bought my first Tesla , I have been preaching to my colleagues and peers for the past 5 yrs to buy a Tesla and to invest in TSLA.
Having personally experienced the phenom that are MS and MX and the tech behind them coupled with the customer service and convenience of mobile service units , I have been prodding them to buy into TSLA for the past 5 yrs
A good number of my colleagues are not ready to buy Tesla yet( I will eventually
Succeed , I am confident ) ,but they have begun buying TSLA over the past 6 months.
They are now more bullish than me and have not stopped buying even now.
This story , I am sure is repeating all across USA.

When I speak to friends overseas , I find that they tend to follow Tesla more keenly than my friends stateside.

Tesla’s mission statement resonates across the globe , we even here in TMC are oblivious to its reach across the continents, even in places where Tesla currently
doesn’t have a physical presence .makes me feel that I am too narrowly
focused on Tesla’s
Performance in USA and China and that inadvertently makes me bearish on Tesla’s future .
“Tesla is the other pandemic”.

High earners or not, the average account balance for a RH user is between 1000-5000 dollars. People with real money use established brokerages.

Robinhood Is Not Moving The Entire Stock Market (fool.com)

 

[mickificki]

Sorry if re-post, Elon interview with WSJ.

check out the 19 min mark where Elon talks about working in the front lines and gets emotional. How can anyone NOT want to work for him?

 

[Krugerrand]

Given the recent run up and the S&P date is there anything that would preclude you from buying say $100k worth of shares this week? Is it "safer" to wait till after the inclusion date to see where things settle?

Is that you, Bob?

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Given the recent run up and the S&P date is there anything that would preclude you from buying say $100k worth of shares this week? Is it "safer" to wait till after the inclusion date to see where things settle?

what’s your timeframe on this 100k investment? If it’s a long term investment than I’d recommend doing it now. Trying to time the market around such a big event like SP Inclusion and could have you buying at much high price if that dip doesn’t come. Which IMO, is a likely scenario. If I were investing for 2+ yrs I’d say buy now and thank me later.

 

[Tachyon]

High earners or not, the average account balance for a RH user is between 1000-5000 dollars. People with real money use established brokerages.

Robinhood Is Not Moving The Entire Stock Market (fool.com)

I agree.
What I meant was , there are many more new investors in Tesla over the past few months , through various trading platforms.
Just attributing this to RH is a big disservice to investing community.

 

[MXWing]

Given the recent run up and the S&P date is there anything that would preclude you from buying say $100k worth of shares this week? Is it "safer" to wait till after the inclusion date to see where things settle?

Buy as many shares as you can, sell a Deep out of the money call against 100 of them. This will lower your cost basis and help with some downside protection. Best to wait for a rise in share prices to do so. Bulls are option betting at 800 strike for next week.

2nd option is to just buy as much as you can and don’t sweat the movements. Think of it as a multi year investment.

3rd option is to buy half now and buy half IF the dip happens. Market often finds a way to punish short term bets that seem “certain”.

This makes it so you are not out of position but will expose you to volatility both good and bad for the 50k.

P.S I got five of these in the mail just now so I urge caution at taking any financial advice from me.

 

[Bet TSLA]

x

Give it to me. You’ll feel better and so will I. Win/win!

Me too 100 bagger now. X100 Here’s hoping the second 100x comes faster. BTW, did you buy those beers yesterday?

IPO shares will be a 200 bagger at 720. Getting pretty close for some people (not me).

 

[MC3OZ]

Looking at the last 10-Q, all of that $5B raise could be used to pay off Convertible notes, tip in a bit of extra cash, and they can pay off all notes.

That is what I hope they do.

 

[BornToFly]

I think it was around a year ago that Cathie Wood said Tesla wound need to raise $10B. I thought she was crazy, because Tesla would be "self funding." That woman is a genius.

 

[Sparky]

Elon did not move out of CA for bad business issues. He left because TX factory for truck is that important. He is going to sleep in the factory to make our trucks and watch over our investments. Ownership!

Tesla & SpaceX may leave eventually. Many companies that started in CA leave.
Texas is a popular destination. Austin is nice (I've been looking) but housing is almost as $$ as CA and prop taxes are more.
It seems to be easier to start something in CA than grow it very large. Especially manufacturing.
Companies have been moving out of CA in droves since the 80's. In that time, CA economy has gone from 7th largest in the world to 5th.
They better fix that.
Elon's been in CA for ~25 years. Pretty sure he does not want to be in Texas that long.