Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

First post on the thread!

I've been a Tesla fan for a while and shareholders for several years. I've been reading a bit on the TSLA inclusion event and wondering if I should set some sell orders at prices like $1000 $1200 to benefit from what could become a temporary market hiccup?

I'm a big believer in the company and their products. I'm also wondering what could be the highest valuation Tesla can achieve. On top of this, holding a single stock is also against my investment philosophy. I also did not cash out a very significant position in cryptos during the last bubble and sometime wonder if I should also learn to harvest my gains.

Hence I'm on the fence between holding the stocks "forever" or taking some impressive gains during the inclusion event. What do you guys think? What's your strategy?

Not sure how much you've read or what you know but the very short version is that we all mostly expect a big rise ($1000+ isn't too dreamy) going into the S&P inclusion that peaks sometime around Christmas (yeah!) and then falling a bit to a bunch (back to $700 or lower) over the next few weeks.

If you want to learn about options, this thread is pure gold: Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

 

[Oyinko]

I read a bit but not very much. Where can I find a good source of information for this inclusion event?

 

[Cherry Wine]

First post on the thread!

I've been a Tesla fan for a while and shareholders for several years. I've been reading a bit on the TSLA inclusion event and wondering if I should set some sell orders at prices like $1000 $1200 to benefit from what could become a temporary market hiccup?

I'm a big believer in the company and their products. I'm also wondering what could be the highest valuation Tesla can achieve. On top of this, holding a single stock is also against my investment philosophy. I also did not cash out a very significant position in cryptos during the last bubble and sometime wonder if I should also learn to harvest my gains.

Hence I'm on the fence between holding the stocks "forever" or taking some impressive gains during the inclusion event. What do you guys think? What's your strategy?

You'll get various opinions on what could happen starting next Friday, but the reality is no one really knows.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I read a bit but not very much. Where can I find a good source of information for this inclusion event?

This is a good primer: Parts I and II courtesy of our own @FrankSG

Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion: Predicting TSLA's post-inclusion stock price

Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion Part 2: Predicting the transformation of the TSLA float

 

[MXWing]

TSLA would have made the SPY positive today if it was in it!

It probably will crash the SPY for a week after it's added but we'll avoid talking about.

Hopefully at 5% weight when its added, Elon can buy Facebook in all stock deal and shut it down just for fun.

Elon Musk: Delete Facebook, 'it's lame'

 

[Artful Dodger]

I did some screenshots on today’s Nasdaq Closing Cross on my Twitter

https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1337138826242707456?s=21

Yeah, your screenshot is of the "Opening Cross" (that's why the SP is around $574). You need to select the "Closing Cross" button from the top row:

Cheers!

 

[Robocop]

I read a bit but not very much. Where can I find a good source of information for this inclusion event?

If you search this area of the forum's thread titles, there are various S&P inclusion threads, some new, some old. Lots of musings on this all year, pick your favorite!

 

[WattsHappening]

First post on the thread!

I've been a Tesla fan for a while and shareholders for several years. I've been reading a bit on the TSLA inclusion event and wondering if I should set some sell orders at prices like $1000 $1200 to benefit from what could become a temporary market hiccup?

I'm a big believer in the company and their products. I'm also wondering what could be the highest valuation Tesla can achieve. On top of this, holding a single stock is also against my investment philosophy. I also did not cash out a very significant position in cryptos during the last bubble and sometime wonder if I should also learn to harvest my gains.

Hence I'm on the fence between holding the stocks "forever" or taking some impressive gains during the inclusion event. What do you guys think? What's your strategy?

Consensus on this thread would be to hold what you have, buy more, and then top that off with calls and leaps.

 

[adiggs]

I did some screenshots on today’s Nasdaq Closing Cross on my Twitter

https://twitter.com/davidzhao365/status/1337138826242707456?s=21

Great stuff. I hope you'll keep posting both the opening and closing cross for the next couple of weeks (until post closing) - I think that's going to help a lot.

 

[EVortex]

First post on the thread!

I've been a Tesla fan for a while and shareholders for several years. I've been reading a bit on the TSLA inclusion event and wondering if I should set some sell orders at prices like $1000 $1200 to benefit from what could become a temporary market hiccup?

I'm a big believer in the company and their products. I'm also wondering what could be the highest valuation Tesla can achieve. On top of this, holding a single stock is also against my investment philosophy. I also did not cash out a very significant position in cryptos during the last bubble and sometime wonder if I should also learn to harvest my gains.

Hence I'm on the fence between holding the stocks "forever" or taking some impressive gains during the inclusion event. What do you guys think? What's your strategy?

Some of us don’t do options and just accumulate and HODL. This is the least stressful and least time consuming investment approach. Leaves more time for reading forum posts!

 

[Artful Dodger]

So banks did their best to dump the price by unloading ~8m shares in 1 day.

No, the share offering was open on both Dec 8th and 9th, and the timing of the sales was left up to Tesla (same terms as the Sep 1st ''at-the-market" share offering.

Let's wait for the 10-Q/K and see what the average price was, and the number of shares. That'll give us some feeling for when 50% of the offering was complete.

If I was forced to guess, I'd estimate that 2,807,120 (2.8M) shares were sold on Wed, Dec 9th...

Cheers!

 

[adiggs]

Through sheer dumb luck on my part, that big opening drop paid off handsomely. I entered some 12/18 620 and 630 call purchases last night, at a few bucks below the closing price. Figured what the heck, I wanted the incremental positions and I was ok at yesterday's close.

Instead of getting in at $40 on one position, I got $29; and instead of $35 on the other, I got in at $27. I really appreciate the $1k / contract savings from that low open.

 

[Bet TSLA]

8K out. 5b$ worth sold on dec 9th.

Item 8.01 Other Events.


On December 9, 2020, Tesla, Inc. completed the sale of $5.0 billion (before commissions) of its common stock through its “at-the-market” offering program previously disclosed on December 8, 2020. The final settlement of the shares sold is expected to be completed by December 11, 2020

tsla-8k_20201209.htm

The above was copied from JBRR comment. Thanks JBRR!

Ordinarily I do not revisit old news, but my statement yesterday was that Tesla was hammering the bid all day on 12/09/2020 and caused the drop in SP that we saw. The macros may have contributed a bit, but 7 million shares appearing out of thin air and pouring onto the bid is a relative tsunami. The SP would have gone down a lot more if not for the impending inclusion.

What we saw this morning was momo players trying to run with the drop. They did a pretty decent job. My lack of conviction in not only maintaining my position (I trimmed it by about a third) but in taking the opportunity to buy more this AM cost me about 200K today (FYI this is my short term trading account only! I have TSLA shares in separate long term accounts untouched for years...thankfully).

It is a small solace that it appears I was correct. Very small.

All the best!

I have no argument with your facts, but all your theorizing here is bunk. You have no idea what caused the TSLA price changes. For some reason you imagine that because some extra shares were sold yesterday that that had a big effect, even though all the similar stocks did pretty much the same thing, in fact the entire NASDAQ did about the same thing (see Rob Maurer's bit of chart illustration about 45 seconds into Tesla Daily). For sanity's sake, note that the volume yesterday was about 5-6 million more shares than the day before or after, less than 10% extra. There's just no there there, never mind a tsunami.

Oddly, while you were throwing away $200K in your trading account, I was making $220K in mine. I wrote 100 TSLA 12/11 620 puts @$31 when TSLA was at 601.70 yesterday late in the day. Closed the position today near the end of trading when TSLA was at 623 for $9.44. If I'd been even slightly brilliant I could have made much more on this trade by timing it better, but I'm no magician. Of course I'm down much more than that on my shares and calls I've been holding through this blip, but making some use of this wild swing is, as you say, some small solace.

You might want to rely a bit less on emotion and fantasy in your trading. It will improve your luck.

 

[gabeincal]

What’s going to happen with parking lots when most people ride an FSD enabled Tesla?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Consensus on this thread would be to hold what you have, buy more, and then top that off with calls and leaps.

You forgot sell everything you own, dig in couches (Yours or strangers), waste 5 1/2 hours of your day posting on this forum while the market is open, hit 'like' on many forum posts, hit 'disagree' on many forum posts, and last but not least.....dream of becoming a 'teslaniare'. If you hang out here long enough and listen to some of the oracles...you will eventually become one.

 

[Cherry Wine]

You forgot sell everything you own, dig in couches (Yours or strangers), waste 5 1/2 hours of your day posting on this forum while the market is open, hit 'like' on many forum posts, hit 'disagree' on many forum posts, and last but not least.....dream of becoming a 'teslaniare'. If you hang out here long enough and listen to some of the oracles...you will eventually become one.

Can confirm.

 

[vikings123]

Great stuff. I hope you'll keep posting both the opening and closing cross for the next couple of weeks (until post closing) - I think that's going to help a lot.

Sorry I must have missed the explanation of this data. What exactly are the opening and closing crosses telling us or giving info on? Are we tallying up to see how the imbalance is trending for the next couple of weeks? What insights is this data providing us?

 

[Artful Dodger]

FB's market capped fell to $789B today, which is only 33% above TSLA ($594B). A price of $739 would move TSLA to #5 behind the Big 4.

TSLA mkt cap will depend upon the number of shares that Tesla issue on Monday for the $5B cap raise.

If we just take the VWAP for Dec 8/9 of $628.04 then the $5B cap raise would result in approx. 7.961M shares being issued on Mon, Dec 11.

So, if SP stays at today's Closing price, then TSLA's Mkt Cap goes up by $5 Billion on Monday.

Cheers!

P.S. Estimated total shares of TSLA would be 947,900,733 + 7,961,297 = 955,862,030 shares.

P.P.S. Bet that Yahoo Finance doesn't update TSLA's mkt cap until after the 10-K comes out? Even so, S&P DJI is SUPPOSED to change the no. of shares and IWF due to corporate events during the rebalaning 'freeze' period, so we'll see if we get a sniff from them.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I have no argument with your facts, but all your theorizing here is bunk. You have no idea what caused the TSLA price changes. For some reason you imagine that because some extra shares were sold yesterday that that had a big effect, even though all the similar stocks did pretty much the same thing, in fact the entire NASDAQ did about the same thing (see Rob Maurer's bit of chart illustration about 45 seconds into Tesla Daily). For sanity's sake, note that the volume yesterday was about 5-6 million more shares than the day before or after, less than 10% extra. There's just no there there, never mind a tsunami.

I agree with your general point and personally think trying to come up with specific reasons for short term movements is a waste of time, but on the other hand, these types of moves based on market dynamics ($5B EXTRA of TSLA sold over 1 or 2 days) do have obvious effects. If the stock price shoots up next week, a week when we expect huge buying pressure, will you just shrug and say "it could be due to any number of reason, no one really knows what caused the spike?"

Oddly, while you were throwing away $200K in your trading account, I was making $220K in mine. I wrote 100 TSLA 12/11 620 puts @$31 when TSLA was at 601.70 yesterday late in the day. Closed the position today near the end of trading when TSLA was at 623 for $9.44. If I'd been even slightly brilliant I could have made much more on this trade by timing it better, but I'm no magician. Of course I'm down much more than that on my shares and calls I've been holding through this blip, but making some use of this wild swing is, as you say, some small solace.

You might want to rely a bit less on emotion and fantasy in your trading. It will improve your luck.

Man, you're grumpier than that cat that posts here!

 

[Artful Dodger]

They ought to make one out of the remains of SN8 and raffle it off for charity. I could see some crazy bugger paying big bucks for that!

OT

Spoiler: Bidding War

Yup. N. Korean and Iran would be in a virtual bidding war for that...