Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

can't find the proforma itself, but looks like the rebalancing date has changed ? Effective date shows after the close of 12/17

View attachment 616702

Yup, all the way to Dec 2021. Maybe try another screenie for 2020?

Cheers!

 

[EV forever]

If you had only $5K at risk that's pretty much timid by definition, unless all you had was $4K and it was leveraged. If so, major congratulations! Turning it into a big pile of $$ is what is called in the biz a very good trade. It has nothing to do with risk, which is how you determine whether or not a trade is timid or aggressive or whatever.

The one thing I cannot stand in any argument or discussion is when a person simply keeps pivoting and changing the focus of what the original point of discussion was. This argument started when you stated that the strategy that @Tyler34 was using was a timid one. Your exact quote is given below. Now you are changing it to his total investment was a timid one.

In any case, what's being done here is timid compared to simply buying out of the money calls. How it compares to just buying straight stock depends (I think) on the details of exactly what strike prices and expiration dates you are dealing with. And given when it was done, it was a time when the more aggressive you were the more money you made. I got lucky and was extremely leveraged in August -- lots of calls and few short puts.

There is only so much condescending BS that I can tolerate. I am done and out of this discussion now.

 

[Tim S]

can't find the proforma itself, but looks like the rebalancing date has changed ? Effective date shows after the close of 12/17

View attachment 616702

Those are 2021 dates.

 

[AudubonB]

And an incredible, crushing decision by the US Supreme Court puts a fine end to this week.

An...almost...political post. Allowable only for its momentous impact throughout the US and the world, including the markets.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Toyota to unveil electric car with solid-state battery with 10-min fast-charging next year - Electrek
2021 - really?

Toyota gained 6% on that announcement today in a sea of red. The level of misguided enthusiasm from traders cease to amaze me. When will they learn there is only one Tesla.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Agree to disagree on what they are called, because like you said it doesn't matter. (for the record Interactive Brokers calls it a "risk reversal" in my portfolio but that doesn't seem right either) But it does sound like you have come around on the point that the position is not a timid one.

Actually I'll say it's completely unknown whether timid or totally balls to the wall. It's all context. What matters is how it affects your overall portfolio.

If you're betting $1M on a stock doubling in a year, you might say that's a big bet on an unlikely outcome and therefore very risky. Reveal that this is one bet of many, and your portfolio is $500M and all of a sudden it's a pretty minor position. Or reveal that you also have a bet on pretty much the opposite position, and all of a sudden you have no risk at all. So, context is everything.

So yes, it's nice for you that you made a lot of money on that particular bet. It was certainly timely. Congratulations!

 

[agastya]

Yup, all the way to Dec 2021. Maybe try another screenie for 2020?

Cheers!

Too much screentime and F5!
Looks good for 2020...12/18. Proforma also says to be sent out after close today - hopefully we see it soon.

the other thing I was looking up is being part of the S&P100 and Consumer Discretionary XLY now - there's some other buying that isn't discussed mainstream.

funds like XLY / OEF etc also have to allocate appropriate weightings to TSLA

 

[Curt Renz]

And a credible, crushing decision by the US Supreme Court puts a fine end to this week.

An...almost...political post. Allowable only for its momentous impact throughout the US and the world, including the markets.

FIFY

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla short sellers trying to climb out of their mounting debt:

 

[Causalien]

I've been lurking in other tesla centric communities to survey the land.

So far there is still a huge information discrepancy between this place and them.

It's not really ppl being malicious. Just ppl parroting misinformation with the utmost confidence.

As a test I sometimes parrot things said here and were often met with disbelief and the usual low effort cry of "source"

Might be selfish of me. But I purposefully did not spread the location of this forum cause I enjoy the information advantage.

 

[joh01652]

This is crazy talk. There is nothing rational about the strategy presented above. I'm not going to waste my time back-checking it but it's obvious it would under-perform hugely compared to simple buy/hold.

Pre-defined trading strategies might appear to be working over the short-term but there are none that can stand up to longer-term scrutiny. But humans will continue to be humans.

Yes, Stealth, you are correct. My big gains this year have come from holding TSLA, not day trading. I really do want to say 'thank you' for your posts advising us to simply buy and hold quality, fast-growing companies. I personally would have never achieved the gains I got this year by day trading alone. I got lucky in that I day traded a company that was shooting off to Mars.

Nevertheless, I will continue to employ what I feel are fairly low-risk strategies to lock up a few shares here and there to keep them out of the hands of MMs. And I will continue to constantly adjust and modify these strategies as the game changes simply because I find it fun. As long as one doesn't make bets one can't afford to lose, why not play if you like to play?

Thanks, Stealth, for your informative posts, I do appreciate them.

 

[joh01652]

Not set it and forget it, obviously within the framework of our existing level of research and TSLA knowledge. I think it's a nice strategy that would allow for one check in a day rather than 12-75 times a day.

Just sat back down and apparently my 12/24 $700c order filled @ $24. Nice. Will likely double down 1-4 times next week if opportunities present themselves at levels even lower.

Exactly. It still takes work. I wouldn't just do this to any random stock. In fact I only HODL and day trade one stock, and that's TSLA because it's the only company I know something about.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Dec 11, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA ATH Weekly Close on Low Volume Day"

Traded: $28,601,393,148.37 ($28.60B)
Volume: 46,791,496
VWAP: $611.25

Close: $609.99 / VWAP: 99.78%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $600 (N/C 2days)

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $578.210B / $211.608B = 273.25%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $515.89B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $363.71B

Mkt Cap req'd for 6th tranche ($350B) reached Mon, Dec 07, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 55.8% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 35.7% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.48% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @Todd Burch "Yesterday was a psychology experiment"

Comment: "The Hall is rented, the Orchestra is engaged, let the Show begin!"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Can't see it with all the wind and solar in Texas replacing oil--yeah, the players will change but not the income. Also Texas has a large IT industry--and it's getting larger.

They're using wind and solar in Texas, not producing it. And certainly there's nothing in the pipeline to replace the % of state revenue that comes from the oil industry. And then there's the inevitable massive real estate crashes. Houston won't even exist. That's a lot of economic activity and state revenue too.

A quick google and I'm seeing fiscal 2019 was $57.9B in general revenue, $5.6B oil & gas extraction tax. What happens to the $34B in sales tax revenue when oil & gas doesn't employ anyone in Texas?

And all these figures are up 7-17% year-over-year because oil & gas grew so much and the low-tax state attracted people. That all changes pretty much right now.

These are similar to us talking about self driving semi's saving the world when 60% of high school educated males in America making a reasonable wage are truck drivers. We're creating problems no one seems prepared to acknowledge, let alone address.

 

[StealthP3D]

They've obviously designed it as a ranch work vehicle, not a SUV competitor. It's probably not expected to leave the ranch except very occasionally.

So, you're saying this was intentional? What is their goal? To make money or help transition the world to sustainable transport? And how does this move the needle on EITHER of those things? It's bizarre.

 

[pz1975]

I've been lurking in other tesla centric communities to survey the land.

So far there is still a huge information discrepancy between this place and them.

It's not really ppl being malicious. Just ppl parroting misinformation with the utmost confidence.

As a test I sometimes parrot things said here and were often met with disbelief and the usual low effort cry of "source"

Might be selfish of me. But I purposefully did not spread the location of this forum cause I enjoy the information advantage.

I agree strongly with this. Whenever I venture beyond this forum and a small number of experts on Twitter/YouTube to read about Tesla/TSLA, I feel like a PhD student accidentally sitting down for school in a junior high school class.

 

[joh01652]

Thanks for sharing
Will start to implement that strategy.
Where do you get you VWAP info?

Thanks for the info

Please understand I'm not just saying do this in the evening and blindly go to work the next day. This strategy merely catches those sharp SP drops one sees occasionally on no news. Best to be on one's toes and near a computer with good internet when day trading. And just because it drops sharply doesn't mean it's not going to continue to drop. One can get oneself in bad trouble following any strategy blindly.

I get VWAP from @Artful Dodger evening reports. Here's the one from just now: #226270

VWAP = volume-weighted average price. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Definition

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

They're using wind and solar in Texas, not producing it. And certainly there's nothing in the pipeline to replace the % of state revenue that comes from the oil industry. And then there's the inevitable massive real estate crashes. Houston won't even exist. That's a lot of economic activity and state revenue too.

A quick google and I'm seeing fiscal 2019 was $57.9B in general revenue, $5.6B oil & gas extraction tax. What happens to the $34B in sales tax revenue when oil & gas doesn't employ anyone in Texas?

And all these figures are up 7-17% year-over-year because oil & gas grew so much and the low-tax state attracted people. That all changes pretty much right now.

These are similar to us talking about self driving semi's saving the world when 60% of high school educated males in America making a reasonable wage are truck drivers. We're creating problems no one seems prepared to acknowledge, let alone address.

According to Wikipedia Texas is producing more windpower than any other state in the US.

Either way. If oil/gas revenues are going down where do we think they are gonna collect the missing money from in the future. If you are guessing electricity you could be correct.

This goes for everywhere. Lots of non oil producing countries in Europe has a very high amount of tax money coming from gas tax. With less ICE cars eventually that money will start coming from electricity. It'll take a few more years but it will happen.

 

[bkp_duke]

They're using wind and solar in Texas, not producing it. And certainly there's nothing in the pipeline to replace the % of state revenue that comes from the oil industry. And then there's the inevitable massive real estate crashes. Houston won't even exist. That's a lot of economic activity and state revenue too.

A quick google and I'm seeing fiscal 2019 was $57.9B in general revenue, $5.6B oil & gas extraction tax. What happens to the $34B in sales tax revenue when oil & gas doesn't employ anyone in Texas?

And all these figures are up 7-17% year-over-year because oil & gas grew so much and the low-tax state attracted people. That all changes pretty much right now.

These are similar to us talking about self driving semi's saving the world when 60% of high school educated males in America making a reasonable wage are truck drivers. We're creating problems no one seems prepared to acknowledge, let alone address.

Your posts are usually pretty informative and well thought out, but this one is just plain wrong. So wrong, on so many fronts.

I lived in TX for 10 years, and have to go back frequently for business. The amount of business in TX that is fossil-fuel related has for the past 18 months been steadily and consistently dropping. And it's been dropping at a much slower pace than it has been replaced with technology (thank you CA), finance (Dallas is actually a large finance hub), and renewables energy generation.

Case in point:
3 years ago I drove my P85 from San Diego to Washington, DC, going through west TX and the heart of the Permian Basin (largest and most accessible oil deposit in the western hemisphere). For at least 250 miles all I saw were oil wells and the interstate was PACKED with oil service workers (easy to identify - all marked trucks).

Fast forward to this fall, when I had to make the same trip. The traffic on the interstate was 1/5th what it was 3 years prior (mostly long-haul trucks). About 1/3 or more of the oil wells were capped off, or not pumping. But interestingly, for about a hundred miles you would see gigantic windmills that were up and running, right along side the old oil wells that were either still pumping or shut off. All around was direct evidence of a massive energy shift, in the HEART of oil country. In the cities I drove through, people were not destitute, they were mostly driving newer autos (big trucks are insanely popular still in TX), the housing was booming, and skyscrapers were still going up in the major cities (Houston, Dallas/Ft. Worth, Austin, San Antonio). This was is stark contrast to states like LA, MS, and AL, which were clearly struggling.

You have drastically underestimated the ability of the people, businesses, and politicians of this state to adjust to the changing economic landscape.

TL,DR version:
TX has an EXTREMELY diversified economy, and the parts of that economy that are growing are growing much faster than the fossil fuel industry is shrinking.

 

[The Accountant]

Not sure if this has been posted yet. Elon email to employees:

Elon Musk Emailed Tesla Staff to Increase Production in Q4 for ‘High-Class Problem of Demand’