Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

So Previous Intra day ATH is 650ish and ATH is is 655?

both crushable

 

[gaswalla]

wouldn't that imply that the market views TSLA hitting 1000 at the end of the year as less likely given that the calls expire in 17 days, regardless of today's activity? that's all it means

 

[jhm]

This Is Jeff Bezos's Most Important Investing Lesson

Tesla investors will appreciate Bezos' investment advice. Bet on missionary CEOs over mercenary CEOs.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

So Previous Intra day ATH is 650ish and ATH is is 655?

both crushable

Sounds about right. I still have dreams about that $669 pre market high last week.

 

[Big Time]

And there goes the macros.....

 

[bkp_duke]

ABC - 1.5 hours ago: UAW agrees to monitor, election change to avoid fed takeover

Excerpt:

An independent monitor will help root out corruption in the United Auto Workers union' and members will decide if they will vote directly on the union's leadership under a reform agreement with the U.S. Attorney's office.

Great . . . so it's now going from an independent union to basically a gov union . . . can we add a little bit MORE inefficiency to things?

Good for Tesla, however.

 

[Curt Renz]

Schaffer's - this morning: S&P News Helps TSLA Brush Off Production Shutdown

Excerpts:

Although the shares pulled back after their Dec. 8 all-time high of $649.88, the dip was contained by their ascending 10-day moving average...

In the options pits, calls have been popular over the last 10 weeks...

The good news for options traders is that premium can be had for a bargain...

 

[bkp_duke]

Alex has more news on Diess and VW in this and a couple follow-up tweets. I don't like it, I'm afraid Diess will leave :/

Diess leaves, VW is toast. You will rapidly see the best and brightest from VW look for jobs with Tesla.

 

[Donatas]

My guess would be that auto transporters are thin on the ground now and Tesla pays a premium to deliver product.

I don't know about the current situation on demand for auto transporters but eastern European companies to transport goods are very popular around Europe exactly because it's usually the cheapest option.

 

[hobbes]

Touchless test drives, deliveries and services all work just fine. Not so worried for Europe.

Just checked on the German forum - until now there a still being deliveries scheduled, nothing cancelled. I read that car garages are allowed to stay open, but nothing specific on car sales.

 

[Tim S]

wouldn't that imply that the market views TSLA hitting 1000 at the end of the year as less likely given that the calls expire in 17 days, regardless of today's activity? that's all it means

This seems to be a response to my post about some short-term way OTM call prices being down today... yes, I agree. That is exactly what it means. I just thought it was odd the calls were down so much while the SP is up so much.

 

[jhm]

"I have a friend at Lucid and I told him that the Air is a fantastic car and they should be proud of it. Its just bad luck for them that it will be obsolete before it ever rolls out of the factory."
Basically stuff we already know

Thanks. I was puzzling over that, but am not clear how that is bullish for Tesla. Presumably most of Tesla's competitors have obsolete tech. I rather like the idea that tabless and other advances could be applies broadly to other cells. Failure to do that seems to imply that Tesla is trying to market obsolete tech in older models.

 

[2virgule5]

Has it always said this?

Not that I can recall but order is relatively recent (early Nov this year). Exciting and puzzling at the same time... I’m still betting on interior/exterior refresh, but not yet Plaid. Why would you say ‘end 2021’ so close to the actual launch? On the other hand, yes Y got there 6 months early, who knows.

 

[Mo City]

Great . . . so it's now going from an independent union to basically a gov union . . . can we add a little bit MORE inefficiency to things?

Good for Tesla, however.

If this makes the UAW less efficient at embezzlement, money laundering, wire fraud and even racketeering (LOL), maybe that's a good thing.

 

[Todd Burch]

Something magical about this $640 point?

 

[LYTRIDR]

This seems to be a response to my post about some short-term way OTM call prices being down today... yes, I agree. That is exactly what it means. I just thought it was odd the calls were down so much while the SP is up so much.

It is probably too simplistic to look at it this way, but let's take for example (and round for slightly easier math) the Dec. 24 1000 call options. They are down today. If we look at the share price as 600 to start the day, that is 400 points to breakeven over 9 days. We need 44 points per day to close that gap and we are seeing only 28 points of movement today. That means we're falling short of our daily implied move which makes hitting 1000 less likely.

Hopefully someone here who works with options more can correct this thinking if it is out of spec.

 

[Artful Dodger]

44.3 M shares traded already today, with Buyer's successfully capping SP btwn $635-$640 for over 4 hrs. This has been a master class in extracting liquidity from the Market.

I have no doubt this deliberate 'rolling barrage' of slowly increasing SPs will succeed in extracting the required number of shares from current TSLA holders (and shortzes) by Dec 24.

 

[CanadaEV]

Today has been a good opportunity to move some taxable shares from the brokerage account I am disappointed in to one that I find much better. With the shape of today's graph, it's been possible to do it profitably enough to pay some of the taxes I will eventually have to pay anyway.
You kind of get the MMs working for you.

 

[StealthP3D]

Remember, tomorrow is the first day that actual S&P index funds can buy. Pressure today is from benchmark funds only, and they can take their time.

That's demonstrably false and we have gone over it many times here yet it keeps getting repeated. Every S&P 500 Index Fund has their own rules. Schwab has only one S&P 500 Index fund (SWPPX) and the rules for the fund management are surprisingly lenient. They don't even need to own a stock added to the S&P if the management determines it might be detrimental to the funds performance. They are allowed to front-run inclusion at their own discretion.

That said, historically SWPPX tracks the index very closely so they are probably not using a lot of discretion on a regular basis. But the idea that all index funds are strictly constrained by pre-determined time limits is simply not true. Every fund will have unique governing documents. You can read the prospectus for SWPPX here:

Schwab (rightprospectus.com)

Look on page 1 under "principle investment strategies".

 

[Mike Smith]

VW CEO Diess stays to lead new executive team but no contract extension