Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

Sorry to be obtuse, but what is the significance of this? What information do we believe this references?

I am quite sure this is an extension of the CTO that Tesla has with FCA. The original CTO was approved by SEC in 2017, I believe.

 

[vikings123]

On the flip side some big fish could come in a buy a lot of calls on Thursday evening and mess with the MM’s plans.

If there are no big buyers today I expect our daily MMD so they can sell more puts and help offset any upside volatility for Friday.

I don’t know what the end game is but it cannot be this straightforward.

MMs cannot help themselves .

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It does not. Other than to scare retail out of their shares.

I don't have any data, but I would imagine that retail shares are an insignificant fraction of shares traded on any given day. Retail investors trade in units of dozens, or maybe hundreds, and a few in the thousands. Funds trade in units of 10k or 100k, if not millions of shares.

My read on this is that all the speculation of what the funds need to buy and when is very, very wrong. I'd love to be wrong about this, but I think the stock will be below $600 by the end of the week.

 

[juanmedina]

This is bloody. Ouch!

Emmet Peppers knew what he was doing.

what do you mean? did he sell his entire position?

 

[2daMoon]

Would it be reasonable to interpret a pull-back now as reducing the probability of a larger drop after inclusion?

 

[mickificki]

what do you mean? did he sell his entire position?

i think he sold half, correct?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't have any data, but I would imagine that retail shares are an insignificant fraction of shares traded on any given day. Retail investors trade in units of dozens, or maybe hundreds, and a few in the thousands. Funds trade in units of 10k or 100k, if not millions of shares.

My read on this is that all the speculation of what the funds need to buy and when is very, very wrong. I'd love to be wrong about this, but I think the stock will be below $600 by the end of the week.

Retail investors own about 32-36% of the TSLA float.

 

[lafrisbee]

it is simply amazing how I have read everything on this thread for several months and I can not understand what TSLA will do in a month, in a week, in a day or hour from now.
The thread should be frozen with only these four letters informing investors what to do.
HODL
There is more entertainment value here than anything else other than HODL.

 

[Sudre]

That spike in Puts at the $600 strike price seems to be the objective of the current push down.

I would say, "EXACTLY."

Not only are the $600 strike Calls going up and up this week (probably a benchmark fund) but next week is to the moon. THEY are not having it and will use any macro negative to multiply a push down to stop these shenanigans. Yesterday more $600 strikes Calls were bought. Look how next week is shaping up! Either THEY have to start hedging for next week or THEY have to push the price down to scare those Call buyers into selling them back.

Next weeks $600 Call strikes... look at it. It's ridiculous... almost like someone/s want to buy a WHOLE lot of shares and they are going to use the MMs to do it. With the Puts and Calls being pretty close to equal above the $600 strike THEY have no problem pushing the share price down and paying out the Puts.

EDIT: I want to add... This is perfect for the SP500 inclusion. Either they get the shares for $600 thru the Calls OR the MMs push the price down under $600 and they get the shares for under $600. Win Win for the SP benchmark funds and the Index funds.

 

[FrankSG]

Retail investors own about 32-36% of the TSLA float.

My guess would be less than half of that (~100M shares, or slightly less). It's definitely not a third of the float.

 

[Pezpunk]

it is simply amazing how I have read everything on this thread for several months and I can not understand what TSLA will do in a month, in a week, in a day or hour from now.
The thread should be frozen with only these four letters informing investors what to do.
HODL
There is more entertainment value here than anything else other than HODL.

it falls on deaf ears with all the option speculators here, but that's been my mantra all along: none of us know what Tesla will do tomorrow or next week or next month. but we all know where it will be in 5 years. why risk screwing up a sure thing?

 

[TravelFree]

I'm at 50% of my portfolio now, so I will sell to maintain that. If it doesn't go higher, then I will be happy with my share count for the long haul. The long share holders need to look for the Q4 report catalyst, not the S&P 500 inclusion date. So in my case if the stock goes below $500 I buy more.

 

[Jack6591]

There are many on this board with far greater training, education, experience, and insight than myself.

There are very few that I wouldn’t be willing to sit down at a poker table with...

 

[samppa]

This. And you don't even care about the price. You make your money from fees the people buying into the fund pay you.

And the goal is to have lowest fees possible, without anybody actively managing. So kind of makes me think they will just buy on inclusion date, whatever the price is.

 

[Singuy]

Watch these index funds magically have the shares they need while tsla is reporting record low volume days with share price dropping throughout the entire 6 trading days. That will be one of the biggest FUs to option gamblers ever. Guess selling calls and puts are the way to go as you are the house, not the gambler.

 

[zeed]

Each.

Index fund.

Has.

Different.

Rules.


Generally most funds rules say they can buy X number of days before OR after inclusion date (SPY specifically is 3 days either way for example) but X can vary and in some cases it's left to fund manager discretion entirely.

Most end up buying at close day before inclusion to minimize tracking error.

Same answer as the last 500 times.


Can we get this stickied to the top of every page of the thread till inclusion is over or something?

How could funds majorily buy this much at Fri close? Doesn't seem like there'd be nearly enough liquidity for market order. Accumulate until close or do they get shares OTC?

 

[Toolsmack]

Are we sure that S&P inclusion doesn’t mean that a gajillion shares of Tesla need to be shorted by index funds in this period instead of bought? Everything is upside down.

my meager take is that MM are treating this week like every other week with option expiry targets. They know that all the index fund shares are pre-negotiated to happen at the closing cross. They aren’t worried about any additional volume messing with their weekly option holder robbery. However, I would love for this to be wrong

 

[lafrisbee]

There are many on this board with far greater training, education, experience, and insight than myself.

There are very few that I wouldn’t be willing to sit down at a poker table with...

That's where we differ..I want to play poker against the ones you don't.

 

[JustMe]

That's where we differ..I want to play poker against the ones you don't.

I think you’re bluffing.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

There are many on this board with far greater training, education, experience, and insight than myself.

There are very few that I wouldn’t be willing to sit down at a poker table with...

I'll take you up on that. Full disclosure though.

100% of my entire Tesla investment came from poker winnings.

But I guess I'm 20 times better as a stock invester since I'm now 20 times as rich.