Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - this morning: Toyota Calls EVs ‘Overhyped.’ It Sees a Huge Mismatch in Cost vs. Goals for the Industry.

Excerpt:

"When politicians are out there saying, 'Let's get rid of all cars using gasoline,' do they understand this?" Toyoda was quoted in an article in The Wall Street Journal. The problem appears to be with the pace of change. He is worried that politicians setting EV policy don't understand the numbers...

Tesla will ship about 500,000 vehicles this year. But it is growing rapidly and expectations for growth have been increasing in recent months, attributable in part to more government EV goals.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
-WSJ

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

He proves even CEOs can be in the dumb as a nail bucket. My apologies to people in this bucket if you feel Akio Toyoda is even dumber than you.

 

[Unpilot]

View attachment 618548
800 cycles? what is that? a little over 2 years if you charge every day? QS won't even be going to prod with their solid state till 2027.

First rule...don't...feed....the...well you know.

 

[zeed]

Right. I take it to mean they have to sell and repurchase and cannot simply memo the shares internally to a different fund inside their organization.

Alright, two of you corrected me so I stand corrected.

 

[JRP3]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Please link the supporting data for cells which achieve everything you claim. Numbers not speculation.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Please link the supporting data for cells which achieve everything you claim. Numbers not speculation.

Hold on, "He" has to update his wiki to reflect his statements

 

[StealthP3D]

All I've seen around here is people thinking there's a 5-10% chance of a 2x run-up during the inclusion buy period and a 50/50 chance of a decent spike. You somehow take my statement that 16% is getting locked up as if I think we're going to fifty bazillion. I assure you that's not the case. These distortions are in your head, not the people you keep trying to "correct". Relax.

And if a few fools want to get overexuberant, so be it. The market won't mind taking their money.

Distortions in my head? I did NOT call you out individually, just a general expectation by many people that a huge spike is a near-certainty. It's based upon what I see written here in black and white. I think we'll get a short spike, maybe around &740-$800 if we get one, but I also recognize any attempt at a substantial spike could fizzle into nothing before it even gets much over $700. It could also fizzle here. I don't control the share price. According to what you've actually written, your most likely scenario is $850ish and that you wouldn't sell at that price. I consider that a "huge" runup considering we have already run from $408. Nothing wrong with having an opinion but don't imply I've said YOU thought it was going to fifty bazillion because I didn't say or imply what you claim. You just made it up. It's not in MY head, it's in yours.

What I've been saying over the last couple of weeks is that people shouldn't be so confident the market will behave the way they expect through this event.

 

[JBRR]

S&P: We think deliveries could reach over 870,000 in 2021.

Current consensus for FY2021 is 777,000

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Everyone knows about solid state, its still in the lab. That means 10yrs minimum til commercially available, so why is it being discussed here?

 

[Christine69420]

Up, up, up, up, DUMP! Weird...
View attachment 618553

Maybe you are new to Tesla as an investment. But when you have held TSLA for a while you will see that this is perfectly normal behaviour for the TSLA stock. It's even expected to behave like this. Which probably is why this thread has so many posts.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 18 minutes ago: COMMENTARY: Munster, On Tesla Dividend, Says 'They Are Not At Risk Of Running Out Of Money, But To Build The Capacity Over The Next Decade They Will Be Spending' And 'Might Not Want To Give It To Investors'

 

[jerry33]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..

I remember fusion reactors as well. They are clearly the future.

 

[StealthP3D]

Benzinga - 18 minutes ago: COMMENTARY: Munster, On Tesla Dividend, Says 'They Are Not At Risk Of Running Out Of Money, But To Build The Capacity Over The Next Decade They Will Be Spending' And 'Might Not Want To Give It To Investors'

I'm glad he's getting the word out. I wish he would also mention that forward thinking investors don't want them to return the profits, they want them to re-invest them!

As an investor over the last 30+ years I've made over 99% of my profits from capital gains, not dividends.

 

[StealthP3D]

Everyone knows about solid state, its still in the lab. That means 10yrs minimum til commercially available, so why is it being discussed here?

I don't think it takes any big stretch of the imagination to see that solid state batteries could begin to ramp commercially in as little as 6-8 years. It's also possible they will never become commercially viable but that implies further fundamental improvements to the current batteries.

 

[hobbes]

BREAKING: $TSLA Raised to BB from BB- by S&P, Outlook Positive.

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1339655337025089537

 

[lascavarian]

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1339655337025089537

yeah, seeing something on SA too.

 

[Mike Smith]

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda is 64 years old and has no science or engineering training. His only qualification to be running Toyota seems to be that he's the grandson of founder Kiichiro Toyoda. This is not a recipe for success for a company in a rapidly evolving industry.

 

[MABMAB]

Just after 1430, NEVER LET THEM SEE YOU SWEAT!

 

[bkp_duke]

650 . . . 650 . . .

Comon, everyone start chanting!

 

[Drumheller]

View attachment 618548
800 cycles? what is that? a little over 2 years if you charge every day? QS won't even be going to prod with their solid state till 2027.

Cycles are usually measured as 100% to 0%. If anyone does that to a current lithium Tesla, they will see massive degradation. The difference is battery wear is approximately logarithmic, so you will see substantially less wear charging 10% to 90% and the battery will last many more cycles, hence why Tesla recommends daily charging to not exceed 90%

If that lab solid state battery can last 800 cycles at full capacity discharge, it is possible a 10 to 90% cycle would last thousands of cycles.