Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nuclear Fusion]

I think we picked up some new dumb-asses who don't know how foolish it is to short a good company based on valuation alone. The old shorts just keep doing the same thing (albeit with increasingly smaller bets each time) hoping one of these days it will finally pay.

Interesting that in Australia there is now a serious undercurrent to lobby the government to ban short selling
A few financial organisations are banding together over the issue

 

[kanweg]

12/18:


12/21:


So the shorts were really busy holding the price down both today and Friday... They just won't give up.

looking at open interest, I think they are aiming for lower than 630. $20 to go.

hope benchmarked funds grab the opportunity.

 

[WolfHero]

Is Foxconn gonna build the cars?

Apple iPhone maker Foxconn wants to become the Android for electric cars with new vehicle platform

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is not real. I had a lower (but still high] valid AH sell order for 10% of my holdings and it did not trigger

"Dark Pool" trade for ~800K shares @ $690. Likely a large Fund topping up to track the Index on Addition day.

These shares are now also out tof the float, in the same way the 69M shares trades @ $695 at the Closing Cross on Friday are now out of the float.

You weren't invited (nor were any of us). But this does imply that at least 1 front-runner has(had) some remaining shares which are being shopped around (note the $5/share discount made available).

Ergo, today's Closing SP @ ~$650 is a totally fake, artificially-manipulated, short-sold steeming pile of...

#HODL

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

So I saw Elon's latest tweet mentioned, but no discussion about it. Do you think that is just a general thanks, or do you think that is a "thanks for getting us past our 500k deliveries for the year goal?"

That would imply Tesla would deliver ~520K cars in 2020. Seems unlikely, with currently known production rates (including the increase @ GF3 due to LPF '3s).

I think its more likely Elon is celebrating the S&P 500 addtion, which is a 'coming of age' milepost in the Tesla journey.

Cheers!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Today is one of those blessed norwegian days.
Tesla Registration Stats
We have 100 cars delivered at 9.30 in the morning.

 

[Artful Dodger]

exercised put?

For 800K shares? jeebus... there weren't 80K Put contracts open at $690

 

[vikings123]

No one can really predict future share price movements on a consistent basis, at best one can be right a little more often than wrong.

My WAG is that we go a bit lower in the morning but basically tread water in the low-mid $600's, perhaps for a few days or until we hear good news at which point we have a relatively strong rally at least up to $690 and probably more, depending upon the strength of the news.

A couple of candidates for the good news that I can think of off the top of my head:

FSD beta starting wider release
Tesla Cybertruck updates reveal
2:1 split announced

One reason predicting future stock prices is so unrealistic is that markets are highly reactive to all kinds of things that we can't possible know. Even the things we know are coming have uncertainty as to the exact timing. And there are things that could happen that we couldn't possibly expect because they come out of the blue.

I agree with this. For the most part I think we are range bound until a benchmark fund starts the FOMO war. And Q4 P&D might just be the event that triggers the additional buying. Honestly I don’t see people getting excited about FSD beta yet but the subscription model could really be a big deal. The subscription model and/or 2021 guidance is what will move the stock price.

There will continue to be a lot of “shaking the trees” in the next couple of weeks. Judging by the AH price spikes to 690-695 there is still some light index buying that needs to happen. So MMs/HFs will start to use more FUD. This is easy money. Expect a lot of “APPLE CAR” on CNBS today.

TSLA usually tends to drop for a day or two after a big event or announcement. This is to allow for IV crush. So I would not rule out a steady spike this week if MMs need to cover as they waste a lot of energy to artificially keep the price down.

As for the 2:1 split I’m not sure Elon and team will do anything until we hit 1000$ price again. It will be another distraction for the company and it’s employees.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Don’t underestimate competition.
Particularly if it’s another Tech company with unlimited funds and another brand aura coming with limitless fans like Apple.

Apple has the engineers.
Apple has the battery tech.
Apple has the liquidity.
Apple doesn’t have to kill all its ICE line and risk brankruptcy start an EV production.
If project Titan has been running since 2012, they would have more engineering into the project than all the other car manufacturers except Tesla.

This would put Apple on my list 2nd to Tesla in the EV market world leaders by 2030. With a third being Nio, Li, Xpeng or VW

You seem to have missed the point entirely. THERE IS NO NEWS FROM APPLE. This was a FUD article, timed to hit algo' traders right before the Close. It succeed in dropping the SP $10. That's was all there was to this story.

Wrt Apple, they dropped their EV car program years ago, and have made no new hires, made no announcements, or any acquistions that would enable an EV program. The story quoted no sources. It's B.S.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Your post reminded me of this

Interesting. I thought the biggest innovation would be, that they have invented something revolutionary, never before seen marvel of technology: the wheel. (iWheel)

 

[Tslynk67]

Nice to see @FrankSG get some love from Chicken Genius - some technical analysis here pointing to $640 support level, which I didn't really need a chart to work-out myself, but what the hell

P.S. big love for my Short Shorts post on Twitter - never take yourselves too seriously, folks!

 

[Buckminster]

Pretty sure I have come up with the iCar concept.

Single spherical wheel with the occupants on the inside. Think BB8 but inside out.

No lidar needed - you just bounce off stuff.

 

[Artful Dodger]

12/18:


12/21:


So the shorts were really busy holding the price down both today and Friday... They just won't give up.

FINRA typically reports on about half of the total trading on NASDAQ. And it's the biggest players, MMs and hedgies, that DO NOT provide their trading data to FINRA. Only retail brokers, but most retail shorts are already broke.

So, FINFA is the bikini of the Markets: what it reveals is interesting, what it conceals is vital.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

P.S. big love for my Short Shorts post on Twitter - never take yourselves too seriously, folks!

Hi Folks,

AdBlock Plus - "Block Image"

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/data/avatars/l/18/18434.jpg?1608629057​

You're welcome.

 

[JBRR]

After-action Report: Mon, Dec 21, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Added to S&P 500"

Traded: $38,407,829,713.70 ($38.41B)
Volume: 58,249,916
VWAP: $659.36

Close: $649.86 / VWAP: 98.59%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $600 (from $570 on Fri)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.686947%
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $616.003B / $211.643B = 291.06%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11 (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11 shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $579.08 B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $384.29B

Mkt Cap req'd for 7th tranche ($400B) tracking Tue, Jan 05, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche. Paging: @The Accountant
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 46.4% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 60.0% (56th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.38% of Short Volume (45th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

View attachment 620013

QOTD: @Tes La Ferrari "Separate the paid shills, entrenched & vested interests from reality using first principles"

Comment: "#Advice: Study Economics"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

Very informative as always, thank you.
Do you manually update the link http://regsho.finra.org/CNMSshvol20201221.txt to access the days data or is there another way? The root of the link is a blank page for me.

 

[JBRR]

 

[Cobos]

Today is one of those blessed norwegian days.
Tesla Registration Stats
We have 100 cars delivered at 9.30 in the morning.

Yeah just read a notice in a local newspaper that Tesla is again using Oslos (and Norways) biggest convention space for deliveries. They say they need the massive space for covid friendly spacing of the cars. Though I guess they are not using the entire facility which is huge.
(Convention space: Norges Varemesse - Fremtidens møteplass) Well technically it's not in Oslo but in Lillestrøm a town halfway between Oslo and Oslo airport, so 20min outside Oslo.
So that's the reason you probably get the massive deliveries at once. My guess is that they will do this until 23rd. 24th is the important Christmas day here in Norway and hardly anyone works that day. So I'm guessing less than 10 cars delivered on the 24th and if they have cars left starting up again on the 28th.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't get it either. This goes for ANY upcoming "competition"
Best case, everything they say comes true, they start producing something in 2024.

So that's what? 50,000 cars year one? (Pretty high # to start with even...) Let's give them the extreme benefit of the doubt saying they grow 60% YoY
2025 80k
2026 128k
2027 205k
2028 327k
2029 524k
2030 839k

So under Extremely best case circumstances, and Tesla only meeting stated goals, by 2030 "competition" will produce 840k vs 20m @ Tesla with almost certainly worse margins. Like...who cares if somebody else makes 4% of Tesla's volume? It's good, we need other companies to fill in the other 60% of the market.

I would reckon one of Tesla's largest strengths is the speed at which they grow YoY, and I find it Extremely unlikely anyone will match never mind exceed Tesla's growth, which means they can never catch up until Tesla stops trying to grow, at which point if Tesla stops spending money on capital expenditures.....they'll make AAPL's cash hoard look kinda sad in short order.

I hate to say it but the average investor is really clueless. Speaking at people outside of this forum generally but wow, a rumor Apple will make a vehicle with LiDAR and LiDAR companies rocket up 30% on the day? I prefer doing a little research before gambling on some hopeful idea.

With the above in mind, I do hope they try to make a car. We need more EV's, Tesla will sell all they can make. If they can't sell them they go the significantly higher profit route and just operate them all as robo taxi's. Like really, Tesla investors have Nothing to fear from "competition".

I don't know if the above numbers reflect what could occur in practice if Apple did want to manufacture a vehicle. Tesla had to start at low volumes for a multitude of reasons related to EVs being a new product class:

• The tech was new and had to be proven out
• Tesla didn't have the cash to expand any faster
• The supply chain to supply batteries for 100k -- 1m vehicles wasn't available
• The market was unproven
• The charging infrastructure wasn't available.

If Apple really wanted to push into the EV segment they could now start with a couple of factories designed to pump out half a million vehicles each. Sure they wouldn't hit those targets in their first year - but I think it's likely they could reach it faster than stated in your post.

That said - and as others have pointed out in this thread, there isn't any evidence that Apple is moving into mass manufacturing at this stage. We've seen the extreme amounts of noise created each time Tesla starts a factory - There's no way Apple could build factories and a supply chain on this scale without leaks everywhere.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Yeah just read a notice in a local newspaper that Tesla is again using Oslos (and Norways) biggest convention space for deliveries. They say they need the massive space for covid friendly spacing of the cars. Though I guess they are not using the entire facility which is huge.
(Convention space: Norges Varemesse - Fremtidens møteplass) Well technically it's not in Oslo but in Lillestrøm a town halfway between Oslo and Oslo airport, so 20min outside Oslo.
So that's the reason you probably get the massive deliveries at once. My guess is that they will do this until 23rd. 24th is the important Christmas day here in Norway and hardly anyone works that day. So I'm guessing less than 10 cars delivered on the 24th and if they have cars left starting up again on the 28th.

There were 90 registered before 6am local time so I assume Tesla sometimes registers them before they are picked up later in the day?

Apparently there is another ship coming to Norway on the 28th. Good chance they'll deliver 200 a day every day they are open. Guess three or four days are lost to the holidays but probably another 1000 at least.

 

[JBRR]

TSLAQ today