TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Quite a push for $650 this week, impressive! I don't think it will hold.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I'm down $10K from yesterday and today so far, yet I'm rooting for $628 as I can just squeeze 2 more shares in at that price w/ cash on hand.
There's something wrong with me.
There's something wrong with me.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Stock Option Max Pain
620 is max pain, though at least under 630 seems where "they" would want it, if you believe in they.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Forward Observer
I have been on the run my entire life. While track is a team sport, you are an individual. I only won the hundred yard dash on the varsity team once and I swore the the guy that I was the wingman for was sick or ate one too man snickers bar too close the the race. The real issue was my running in armor.
My armor is still the same outfit of old, but the holes from my sucking chest wounds poke the scars. FYI it was never shinny, just clean and functional. The wound of ‘71 by the Priest I served as an E-5 was ugly; the sucking chest wound later by a peer captan that turned out like Flynn was sickening; the would-B severe deadliest sucking chest wound by a peer marine major was deflected.
January 2020 I flew into a meadow and was stunned, I could see the trees thinning in December 2019; but by March 2020 we all know the rest of that story. In this meadow my I am alone with our rescued dog Sadie, and my life long partner. As I got farther into the meadow, all those dark places experienced began to fall away. Now I find due to COVID-19, my meadow is like a fish bowl upside down. This experience is like when my Dad replied after opening his 90th birthday card, “I’ve never been this old before.”
Apple rumors were the in-thing for a long time, but dried up once the 3 was released into the wild by the truck load.
The only true competitor IMO (first time I used that) is VW. They bought an S and took it apart ~ forgot one screw when reassembling it though. So watch them. The screw loose was the previous management that got caught smoking in the boys bathroom.
Car sales overall have been declining. Good to know.
GM and Toyota have been sniveling and whining ~ why? Example, if the Prius is your top selling stop-gap between fossil fuel and electric and it gets waxed by the 3 and Y; well you would pull your pants down in public too. Oh yeah, one of the family VPs was put in charge of electrifying the fleet a few years back. Not sure if he ever came out of the lab.
Every time something goes wrong with a Tesla, Elon/Tesla gets ahead of the game. They do not blame the tires like an automaker did back in the late ‘70s or early ‘80s.
Analysts analyze the tires. Tesla has gone from absolutely no one to 1%. Yet if you begin to connect the dots 1% today is not so bad; and the time spent as “no one” was character building.
While I no longer run a hundred yards in 10.4 seconds, or two miles close to thirteen minutes; I almost always beat Sadie up the hill ~ about a hundred feet up a 15% slope to the mailbox. She stops to pee and poop along the way.
I would say stop and smell the roses, but growers have breaded out the once beautiful smell. Oh yeah, Toyota went through the “they will fail” back in the early seventies ~ just saying’.
Happy holidays and please wear a mask ~ no one wants your ugly face in their face.
I have been on the run my entire life. While track is a team sport, you are an individual. I only won the hundred yard dash on the varsity team once and I swore the the guy that I was the wingman for was sick or ate one too man snickers bar too close the the race. The real issue was my running in armor.
My armor is still the same outfit of old, but the holes from my sucking chest wounds poke the scars. FYI it was never shinny, just clean and functional. The wound of ‘71 by the Priest I served as an E-5 was ugly; the sucking chest wound later by a peer captan that turned out like Flynn was sickening; the would-B severe deadliest sucking chest wound by a peer marine major was deflected.
January 2020 I flew into a meadow and was stunned, I could see the trees thinning in December 2019; but by March 2020 we all know the rest of that story. In this meadow my I am alone with our rescued dog Sadie, and my life long partner. As I got farther into the meadow, all those dark places experienced began to fall away. Now I find due to COVID-19, my meadow is like a fish bowl upside down. This experience is like when my Dad replied after opening his 90th birthday card, “I’ve never been this old before.”
Apple rumors were the in-thing for a long time, but dried up once the 3 was released into the wild by the truck load.
The only true competitor IMO (first time I used that) is VW. They bought an S and took it apart ~ forgot one screw when reassembling it though. So watch them. The screw loose was the previous management that got caught smoking in the boys bathroom.
Car sales overall have been declining. Good to know.
GM and Toyota have been sniveling and whining ~ why? Example, if the Prius is your top selling stop-gap between fossil fuel and electric and it gets waxed by the 3 and Y; well you would pull your pants down in public too. Oh yeah, one of the family VPs was put in charge of electrifying the fleet a few years back. Not sure if he ever came out of the lab.
Every time something goes wrong with a Tesla, Elon/Tesla gets ahead of the game. They do not blame the tires like an automaker did back in the late ‘70s or early ‘80s.
Analysts analyze the tires. Tesla has gone from absolutely no one to 1%. Yet if you begin to connect the dots 1% today is not so bad; and the time spent as “no one” was character building.
While I no longer run a hundred yards in 10.4 seconds, or two miles close to thirteen minutes; I almost always beat Sadie up the hill ~ about a hundred feet up a 15% slope to the mailbox. She stops to pee and poop along the way.
I would say stop and smell the roses, but growers have breaded out the once beautiful smell. Oh yeah, Toyota went through the “they will fail” back in the early seventies ~ just saying’.
Happy holidays and please wear a mask ~ no one wants your ugly face in their face.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
It being a slow news day so far, there is this matter of "splits have no effect" that I've wanted to address since back when the 5:1 split happened.
There is no argument about how the total value of held shares doesn't change with a split when viewed from a static perspective. However, that last time round I saw no mention of how the dynamic perspective of value growth changes significantly after a split.
Maybe this is so obvious that it goes without saying. If so, my apologies for hammering on this.
To paint the picture better, let's use an example of 100 shares. For each $1 increase in SP, these shares increase in total value by $100.
After a 5:1 split, the previous 100 are now 500 shares, valued each at 1/5 the old SP. Only now, for each $1 increase in SP the shareholders will now net $500.
To me, this always seemed so significant that I didn't understand the abundance of those reporting the split repeatedly touting the aspect of how the split will not affect the value of total shares held, without, in the same breath, remarking upon how the split will significantly affect each shareholders' earnings going forward.
Anywho, just thought I'd run this up the flagpole and see who salutes while we drift in the post-inclusion doldrums.
There is no argument about how the total value of held shares doesn't change with a split when viewed from a static perspective. However, that last time round I saw no mention of how the dynamic perspective of value growth changes significantly after a split.
Maybe this is so obvious that it goes without saying. If so, my apologies for hammering on this.
To paint the picture better, let's use an example of 100 shares. For each $1 increase in SP, these shares increase in total value by $100.
After a 5:1 split, the previous 100 are now 500 shares, valued each at 1/5 the old SP. Only now, for each $1 increase in SP the shareholders will now net $500.
To me, this always seemed so significant that I didn't understand the abundance of those reporting the split repeatedly touting the aspect of how the split will not affect the value of total shares held, without, in the same breath, remarking upon how the split will significantly affect each shareholders' earnings going forward.
Anywho, just thought I'd run this up the flagpole and see who salutes while we drift in the post-inclusion doldrums.
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I do think there’s a category of investors, mainly amateurs, who still want to profit from the meteoric rise the last few months, and this will cause some selling pressure.
Let’s face it: we’ve been outgunned by the pro’s. Most of us only heard about the ‘buy/sell on close’ a couple of days ago, on too short notice to be absolutely certain how to deal with or profit from it. Personally I found the possibility of an infinity squeeze realistic. In retrospect, the pro’s must have been laughing at this infinity squeeze idea.
I’ve seen only a couple of people here announcing a successful sale at 695, mostly expressing their surprise that the order executed.
I expect the share price over the coming year to be dominated by how well Tesla executes their plan, rather than speculation about some event that might trigger another squeeze. Given the rather high price, I expect it to trade in a narrow band, and maybe go down several tens of percents, caused by selling pressure by people who felt they missed the boat to profit from the squeeze.
On a longer time horizon, I still feel that Tesla is going to be a multi trillion dollar company, so HODLers will be fine. I’ll be buying deep in the money LEAPs should the price go down significantly.
Sold my QS DEC'21 40c for 10X and put it all into TSLA at 632.... QS feels super bubbly and irrational, TSLA of course does not. Although for my DEC31 and JAN'21 700C calls I'd love a bit more action....
Just over a month ago the market thought 400 was a fair price for TSLA. The 500 we reached before that was based on the speculation that TSLA would be admitted to the S&P 500 index in September. When that didn't happen we dropped back to 300, only to stabilize around 400.
The second speculative S&P 500 run almost brought us to 700. In that same period we saw promising FSD beta testing, high Tesla sales in China and the continued Gigafactory buildout. Even if we drop back 150 or 200 points from the speculative top to 550 or 500 we are looking at a 25-30% rise of the base for TSLA.
Such a base would be a great starting point for a further rise towards 700 or 800 during 2021.
The second speculative S&P 500 run almost brought us to 700. In that same period we saw promising FSD beta testing, high Tesla sales in China and the continued Gigafactory buildout. Even if we drop back 150 or 200 points from the speculative top to 550 or 500 we are looking at a 25-30% rise of the base for TSLA.
Such a base would be a great starting point for a further rise towards 700 or 800 during 2021.
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2 weeks ago, we went from 580 to 542 in about an hour with SP inclusion not yet happening.
Today it's been a slow bleed even as the massive buying has been done.
Of course there will still be manipulation, simply because TSLA has the highest trading volume and the highest option volume relative to market cap among the biggest companies in the SP 500. However we can see it already winding down. Remember how we crashed 38% in a week after the botched inclusion in September?
Trading volume and option volume will go down in locked step but be careful what you wish for. While the lows will be less painful, the highs will be less euphoric.
Yeah. I'd say the real threat would be a serious acquisition or just "giving away" their car software and maybe FSD to legacy automakers in return for app sales, advertising whatever.
Underlying question: does a stock move as a dollar value or by a percentage change?
A $1 move post split is 5x the market cap value pre-split and also 5x the percentage change.
If stock price is a fixed multiple of profit, and profit goes up 5%, that is 5% of 1/5 the price * 5x the shares or 5% of 1 share. Same movement.
Psychologically, smaller $ moves are easier to handle though. $16 drop looks better than an $80 drop, even though the change to one's account is the same.
I'm really happy for the SP to consolidate in the mid $650's, would be very healthy IMO.
Full disclosure, I did sell a pile of March $780 covered calls at close last Thursday - could already rebuy them and pocket $40k,, but that would be boring. Instead I sold a January $617.50 put with the cash I has sitting there. I'd be well happy to get 100 shares at that price, even better if it got executed early...
And why do I "risk" my shares (not all of them, BTW), because I need some cash out, so will be trading the wheel for the next few years.
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Mod: I tried reading this post 6 times, but keep being distracted by the 'disturbing' image on the left. Need to check the forum rules for small print prohibiting such pictures
OtherMod:~~~I’ll suggest looking under the Truth in Advertising clause~~~
Ex-mod: Would people be objecting if @Lycanthrope happened to be an attractive female? Objecting is sexist. --ggr
Full disclosure, I did sell a pile of March $780 covered calls at close last Thursday - could already rebuy them and pocket $40k,, but that would be boring. Instead I sold a January $617.50 put with the cash I has sitting there. I'd be well happy to get 100 shares at that price, even better if it got executed early...
And why do I "risk" my shares (not all of them, BTW), because I need some cash out, so will be trading the wheel for the next few years.
---
Mod: I tried reading this post 6 times, but keep being distracted by the 'disturbing' image on the left. Need to check the forum rules for small print prohibiting such pictures
OtherMod:~~~I’ll suggest looking under the Truth in Advertising clause~~~
Ex-mod: Would people be objecting if @Lycanthrope happened to be an attractive female? Objecting is sexist. --ggr
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I had already taken out the money I needed for next year's project. I did put in a couple of GTC sell just in case the stock did go up really high, but not disappointed that I missed out because it will obviously go much higher later on.
Bought again today. It just felt right... going by gut feel now.
Apple story made me lean in harder, so obvious!
Apple story made me lean in harder, so obvious!
Many had claimed quite the opposite actually.
I keep reminding myself that the big boys make money when the SP goes up, and when it goes down. We got into the 600s because of front running the index funds. I was hoping for a squeeze to 800 last Friday, but it didn't happen. I think we close red all week and go back to the 500s before Jan 1. Then we get a rise leading into Q4 delivery numbers on Jan 2/3. I sold as many covered calls for Jan 2022 as I could, and now I'm waiting for the bottom and IV drop to buy some of them back at a profit.
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