Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Hawaii’s first Supercharger is finally here!!!

P.S. if you’ve got any concerns about the location (you’re probably not the only one), there’s a thread here to discuss it: Supercharger - Lanaʻi City, HI

View attachment 619989 View attachment 619988

Wait, Lana'i??? There's nothing on Lana'i but a golf course! So this is to recharge the Teslas taking millionaires from the clubhouse to the tee box?

 

[StealthP3D]

I gave up some profits in the last few days, hoping for yet more squeeze.

Somewhat bummed, but I just went for a quick errand in my Model 3. For just a moment, I floored it. The rush of acceleration never gets old. Everything is going to work out fine.

You can’t do that with CRSP.

Depending upon how CRSP's technology develops, and whether you have good or bad luck with your health, you might not be able to do ANYTHING anymore without CRSP!

 

[MikeC]

Wait, Lana'i??? There's nothing on Lana'i but a golf course! So this is to recharge the Teslas taking millionaires from the clubhouse to the tee box?

Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison has moved to Lanai, the Hawaiian island he's spent half a billion dollars developing. Here's how Ellison bought 98% of the island and turned it into a sustainability experiment.

 

[Criscmt]

"not one company included in the S&P 500 has sold off on the Monday of inclusion."

Paging @Oveeus @TheTalkingMule @smorgasbordBy @dakh @ByeByeJohnny as I see that you were interested going by their recent comments on this thread.

@FrankSG Got a chance to review the latest data and fit it into your Model to see what to expect coming 1-2 weeks?
@vikings123

https://twitter.com/JimJame74888138/status/1340741959728640002?s=20
View attachment 619635

Well...this didn’t have well
Any thoughts on price action for the rest of the week?
@vikings123

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Wait, people are actually taking these “Apple Car” rumors seriously?

Let me get this straight. People think Apple, a company which outsources manufacturing of every single thing they sell to 3rd parties and only sells things they can make a 90% margin on, is going to enter an industry where margins are more like 1% and they have to build and own massive complicated factories in order to produce products?

I’m sorry, I don’t know what it is people are smoking but it must be the good s**t because I want some. The very idea that Apple would enter an industry like automobiles is absolutely bats**t insane in terms of how ludicrous it is. It’s literally 100% the exact opposite of the kind of company Apple is.

Despite years of rumors, Apple ended up not even wanting to enter the TV business which is relatively close to the smartphone and computer businesses but with much lower margins. Why would they ever want to do something as risky and 100% guaranteed to fail if you aren’t a genius on the level of Elon Musk like start building and selling cars?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Apple not a threat after a couple of days IMO, reassess in 5 yrs.

I do admire their more realistic timeframe which is an indication of longer-term thinking. But I also don't see any employees wanting to get into transportation quite as driven as a Tesla employees determined to save the planet. Tesla got grit.

I'll even go a step further by saying that Tesla has raised the bar for all companies, not just Apple. You'd need a fresh company with an Operating Agreement that goes beyond Fiduciary driven goals to include Environment and Community, in order to even touch the future as fast as Tesla.

And if I worked at Tesla and read this, I'd try even harder tomorrow because I'd know that people really do recognize the magic and sacrifices, Every.Single.Day.

You're all amazing at Tesla!

 

[PeterJA]

Here is the "blockbuster Reuters report" (according to our friends at Seeking Alpha):
Exclusive: Apple targets car production by 2024 and eyes 'next level' battery technology - sources

...It remains unclear who would assemble an Apple-branded car, but sources have said they expect the company to rely on a manufacturing partner to build vehicles. And there is still a chance Apple will decide to reduce the scope of its efforts to an autonomous driving system that would be integrated with a car made by a traditional automaker, rather than the iPhone maker selling an Apple-branded car, one of the people added.​

So not committed to making a car. If they make only self-driving software, how will they compete with Tesla's training data? Especially by 2024?

Two people with knowledge of Apple’s plans warned pandemic-related delays could push the start of production into 2025 or beyond.​

So not committed to 2024.

Apple has decided to tap outside partners for elements of the system, including lidar sensors, which help self-driving cars get a three-dimensional view of the road, two people familiar with the company’s plans said. Apple’s car might feature multiple lidar sensors for scanning different distances, another person said. Some sensors could be derived from Apple’s internally developed lidar units, that person said.​

I guess they missed Elon's comments about lidar, and want to compete with Waymo, not Tesla.

As for the car’s battery, Apple plans to use a unique “monocell” design that bulks up the individual cells in the battery and frees up space inside the battery pack by eliminating pouches and modules that hold battery materials, one of the people said. Apple’s design means that more active material can be packed inside the battery, giving the car a potentially longer range.​

Or you could make the cells structural to save space and weight. Guess they didn't think of that.

Apple is also examining a chemistry for the battery called LFP, or lithium iron phosphate, the person said, which is inherently less likely to overheat and is thus safer than other types of lithium-ion batteries. ”It’s next level,” the person said of Apple’s battery technology.​

Uh huh. (Note to noobies: Tesla uses LFP for some products.)

Apple had previously engaged Magna International Inc in talks about manufacturing a car, but the talks petered out as Apple’s plans became unclear...​

Sounds like Magna needs to wait some more.

So how will analysts react to this blockbuster report? SA quotes Loup Ventures' Gene Munster:

• "We see little fundamental risk to Tesla if Apple were to release a car. EV's today account for 3% of cars sold; in 5 years we expect the share of EVs to be closer to 30% of all auto sales."
• "We believe in 5 years Tesla will hold around one third global EV market share, leaving two-thirds of the market up for grabs. The bigger impact of an Apple Car will be on traditional automakers," he adds.

Right on, Gene, but...

• In the near-term, Munster thinks the Apple Car development will likely weigh on shares of TSLA as investors integrate a new risk factor into their investment thesis, although he predicts anticipation of an Apple-branded car will likely level off in the months ahead.

My anticipation leveled off in the last 4 seconds.

• In the longer-term, the Apple topic is expected to remain and likely have some negative impact on TSLA’s multiple in 2023 and beyond.

In 2023 and beyond, Tesla will have gigafactories on at least 3 continents gushing millions of vehicles and energy products, more factories on the way, who-knows-what other products on the way, and non-lidar FSD making all other systems and robotaxis obsolete. I'm not too worried about the longterm impact of the Apple topic.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wait, Lana'i??? There's nothing on Lana'i but a golf course! So this is to recharge the Teslas taking millionaires from the clubhouse to the tee box?

You're not kidding! That's so small, charging could dim their streetlights.

I recall a few years back that if you were a business then Tesla would install a charging station on your property. I don't know much more on it or if they still do it. Maybe just the regular chargers like hotels. In Hawaii, maybe the millionaires put in some change to help it along? Or perhaps it's the only island that would allow it and another US State helps spread the word.
(It is 50% golf course, and the only thing on the entire island. Call it "Charger Island" now.)

What if this is where Apple execs meet for their Annual Meetings, lol. There's a side story here for sure.

 

[MC3OZ]

Or you could make the cells structural to save space and weight. Guess they didn't think of that.

They need front and rear castings for a structural pack, or they need some other way of feathering out the load.

This isn't just Apple, all Tesla competitors, or would be competitors, are in the same boat.

Just replicating what Tesla are doing now within 5 years would be an achievement...

it is hard to imagine what further advances Tesla will make in the next 5 years.

However the optimistic view is that 1st place is locked up, but places 2nd-10th are wide open.

So someone like Apple slotting into somewhere between 2nd and 10th, and having a viable business isn't totally impossible,

If I had to guess, Apple are more likely to be 10th than 2nd.

 

[Ameliorate]

Here is the "blockbuster Reuters report" (according to our friends at Seeking Alpha):
Exclusive: Apple targets car production by 2024 and eyes 'next level' battery technology - sources

...It remains unclear who would assemble an Apple-branded car, but sources have said they expect the company to rely on a manufacturing partner to build vehicles. And there is still a chance Apple will decide to reduce the scope of its efforts to an autonomous driving system that would be integrated with a car made by a traditional automaker, rather than the iPhone maker selling an Apple-branded car, one of the people added.​

So not committed to making a car. If they make only self-driving software, how will they compete with Tesla's training data? Especially by 2024?

Two people with knowledge of Apple’s plans warned pandemic-related delays could push the start of production into 2025 or beyond.​

So not committed to 2024.

Apple has decided to tap outside partners for elements of the system, including lidar sensors, which help self-driving cars get a three-dimensional view of the road, two people familiar with the company’s plans said. Apple’s car might feature multiple lidar sensors for scanning different distances, another person said. Some sensors could be derived from Apple’s internally developed lidar units, that person said.​

I guess they missed Elon's comments about lidar, and want to compete with Waymo, not Tesla.

As for the car’s battery, Apple plans to use a unique “monocell” design that bulks up the individual cells in the battery and frees up space inside the battery pack by eliminating pouches and modules that hold battery materials, one of the people said. Apple’s design means that more active material can be packed inside the battery, giving the car a potentially longer range.​

Or you could make the cells structural to save space and weight. Guess they didn't think of that.

Apple is also examining a chemistry for the battery called LFP, or lithium iron phosphate, the person said, which is inherently less likely to overheat and is thus safer than other types of lithium-ion batteries. ”It’s next level,” the person said of Apple’s battery technology.​

Uh huh.

Apple had previously engaged Magna International Inc in talks about manufacturing a car, but the talks petered out as Apple’s plans became unclear...​

Sounds like Magna needs to wait some more.

So how will analysts react to this blockbuster report? SA quotes Loup Ventures' Gene Munster:

• "We see little fundamental risk to Tesla if Apple were to release a car. EV's today account for 3% of cars sold; in 5 years we expect the share of EVs to be closer to 30% of all auto sales."
• "We believe in 5 years Tesla will hold around one third global EV market share, leaving two-thirds of the market up for grabs. The bigger impact of an Apple Car will be on traditional automakers," he adds.

Right on, Gene, but...

• In the near-term, Munster thinks the Apple Car development will likely weigh on shares of TSLA as investors integrate a new risk factor into their investment thesis, although he predicts anticipation of an Apple-branded car will likely level off in the months ahead.

My anticipation leveled off in the last 4 seconds.

• In the longer-term, the Apple topic is expected to remain and likely have some negative impact on TSLA’s multiple in 2023 and beyond.

In 2023 and beyond, Tesla will have gigafactories on at least 3 continents gushing millions of vehicles and energy products, more factories on the way, who-knows-what other products on the way, and non-lidar FSD making all other systems and robotaxis obsolete. I'm not too worried about the longterm impact of the Apple topic.

I don't get it either. This goes for ANY upcoming "competition"
Best case, everything they say comes true, they start producing something in 2024.

So that's what? 50,000 cars year one? (Pretty high # to start with even...) Let's give them the extreme benefit of the doubt saying they grow 60% YoY
2025 80k
2026 128k
2027 205k
2028 327k
2029 524k
2030 839k

So under Extremely best case circumstances, and Tesla only meeting stated goals, by 2030 "competition" will produce 840k vs 20m @ Tesla with almost certainly worse margins. Like...who cares if somebody else makes 4% of Tesla's volume? It's good, we need other companies to fill in the other 60% of the market.

I would reckon one of Tesla's largest strengths is the speed at which they grow YoY, and I find it Extremely unlikely anyone will match never mind exceed Tesla's growth, which means they can never catch up until Tesla stops trying to grow, at which point if Tesla stops spending money on capital expenditures.....they'll make AAPL's cash hoard look kinda sad in short order.

I hate to say it but the average investor is really clueless. Speaking at people outside of this forum generally but wow, a rumor Apple will make a vehicle with LiDAR and LiDAR companies rocket up 30% on the day? I prefer doing a little research before gambling on some hopeful idea.

With the above in mind, I do hope they try to make a car. We need more EV's, Tesla will sell all they can make. If they can't sell them they go the significantly higher profit route and just operate them all as robo taxi's. Like really, Tesla investors have Nothing to fear from "competition".

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

What they don’t have is the manufacturing experience. That’s a big one

Another thing they lack: Elon.
And the the technology and people and Tesla team spirit he has spent ~12 years developing.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yah what’s with JB?

I don't understand why you would ask that. JB is on the Board of Directors of a solid-state battery research company that hopes to commercialize their technology over the next 5-6 years. The time and capability estimates are provided by the scientists in the lab, not JB. He's just a board member, not someone who is claiming it's definitely the next big thing - just that it has some potential. I've followed this pretty closely and I haven't heard JB say anything I felt was misleading or not supported by fact. I actually sold all the shares I had purchased in the $16 dollar range for a nice profit once I realized JB was just along for the ride in a company that may or may not be a commercial success. And he has never claimed it would be.

2) In following The Limiting Factor and TMC I’ve read about how overhyped and scientifically questionable quantumscape is

Maybe you've seen something I missed but I haven't seen anything scientifically questionable presented by Quantumscape. At the worst, I think they might be over-estimating the difficulty of commercializing their technologies and how much it will cost. But those are not established things so they are free to make their best guess.

3) I’ve talked to 3 Tesla employees who have worked under JB who have called him an asshole and told me stories about him. I know Elon is like this as well but he has the genius to back it up.

I put ZERO stock in stories like that. In my experience in the working world, the people who tend to be most critical of highly talented leaders are the same people who under-perform as employees. I think both JB and Elon are very dedicated, sincere and considerate and employees who don't like them or who think they are too demanding should probably find a less challenging place to work. Not everyone is cut out to work in such a demanding and fast-paced environment. When you are trying to achieve the impossible, mediocrity is not going to get you there.

 

[StealthP3D]

Good thing that Schwab has started selling "slices" of TSLA shares.

I don't think they have sold a single "slice" of TSLA yet! There was a notification at the top of my account page they were working on adding TSLA slices to their SP500 slice program but in the meantime you could just search for "TSLA" to buy TSLA slices. Just for fun, I tried it a couple of times right before the market closed today but it still wasn't available.

 

[Compton]

So just like the previous dynamic duo, Microsoft and Nokia? And where is their joint venture now?

 

[StealthP3D]

Well...this didn’t have well
Any thoughts on price action for the rest of the week?
@vikings123

No one can really predict future share price movements on a consistent basis, at best one can be right a little more often than wrong.

My WAG is that we go a bit lower in the morning but basically tread water in the low-mid $600's, perhaps for a few days or until we hear good news at which point we have a relatively strong rally at least up to $690 and probably more, depending upon the strength of the news.

A couple of candidates for the good news that I can think of off the top of my head:

FSD beta starting wider release
Tesla Cybertruck updates reveal
2:1 split announced

One reason predicting future stock prices is so unrealistic is that markets are highly reactive to all kinds of things that we can't possible know. Even the things we know are coming have uncertainty as to the exact timing. And there are things that could happen that we couldn't possibly expect because they come out of the blue.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Dec 21, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Added to S&P 500"

Traded: $38,407,829,713.70 ($38.41B)
Volume: 58,249,916
VWAP: $659.36

Close: $649.86 / VWAP: 98.59%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $600 (from $570 on Fri)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.686947%
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $616.003B / $211.643B = 291.06%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11 (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11 shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $579.08 B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $384.29B

Mkt Cap req'd for 7th tranche ($400B) tracking Tue, Jan 05, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche. Paging: @The Accountant
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 46.4% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 60.0% (56th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.38% of Short Volume (45th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @Tes La Ferrari "Separate the paid shills, entrenched & vested interests from reality using first principles"

Comment: "#Advice: Study Economics"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

Road/Show - Monday: Bill to ban Tesla, Lucid, Rivian direct sales dies in Michigan Senate - Roadshow

Excerpts:

Tesla, Lucid and Rivian can each breathe a sigh of relief as Michigan House Bill 6233 effectively died in the Michigan Senate in the final weeks of legislating. A Lucid spokesperson on Monday revealed to Roadshow the state Senate decided this past Friday not to take up the bill before its recess. There are no plans to address HB 6233, either, according to the spokesperson...

The bill included a couple twists as it moved through the Michigan House this year. Introduced in September, it aimed to block other startup automakers like Rivian and Lucid from selling their vehicles direct to consumers, as Tesla does in Michigan via an agreement between the state and the automaker. At the start of this month, however, the house struck language from the bill that initially protected Tesla's agreement made back in January of this year. Suddenly, each startup had something to lose as lawmakers looked to strengthen dealer franchises in the state.

 

[MP3Mike]

12/18:

FINRA Short / Total Volume = 57.8% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)

12/21:

FINRA Short / Total Volume = 60.0% (56th Percentile rank Shorting)

So the shorts were really busy holding the price down both today and Friday... They just won't give up.

 

[StealthP3D]

Road/Show - Monday: Bill to ban Tesla, Lucid, Rivian direct sales dies in Michigan Senate - Roadshow

Excerpts:

Tesla, Lucid and Rivian can each breathe a sigh of relief as Michigan House Bill 6233 effectively died in the Michigan Senate in the final weeks of legislating. A Lucid spokesperson on Monday revealed to Roadshow the state Senate decided this past Friday not to take up the bill before its recess. There are no plans to address HB 6233, either, according to the spokesperson...

The bill included a couple twists as it moved through the Michigan House this year. Introduced in September, it aimed to block other startup automakers like Rivian and Lucid from selling their vehicles direct to consumers, as Tesla does in Michigan via an agreement between the state and the automaker. At the start of this month, however, the house struck language from the bill that initially protected Tesla's agreement made back in January of this year. Suddenly, each startup had something to lose as lawmakers looked to strengthen dealer franchises in the state.

Once the lawmakers realized most of them would shortly own TSLA as a component of the All-American S&P 500, they dropped their stupid anti-competitive bill. They know how to look after themselves!

 

[StealthP3D]

12/18:


12/21:


So the shorts were really busy holding the price down both today and Friday... They just won't give up.

I think we picked up some new dumb-asses who don't know how foolish it is to short a good company based on valuation alone. The old shorts just keep doing the same thing (albeit with increasingly smaller bets each time) hoping one of these days it will finally pay.