Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

Okay, so that's two posting the same wonderful news story, but, please, help me understand this.

Explain this as if I'm a six-year old: What do you do about cash flow since TSLA pays no dividends?

Are the "retire early" folks here just selling to create a bucket of money and then hoping it lasts before they kick the bucket?

Thanks!

Selling far OTM strangles on a portfolio margin account. Roll up and down on the off chance the stock moves too quickly in one direction. I'm targeting 0.5 - 1% return on invested capital weekly. For example: I'm selling 520/800 strangle expiring next week, pocketing about $350 per set. I then use the put premium to roll the call up if the stock moves up violently and vice versa. I win most weeks and break even in the rest.

 

[Green Pete]

I guess 500K isn’t in the bag....

View attachment 622194

I think this is the kind of thing they would do whether or not it was in the bag.

510k instead of 501k would be as significant as 500k instead of 491k.

And adding FSD for 3 months is a zero cost marketing campaign. Free supercharging isn’t. This is just the first time there is much to show of with free FSD over enhanced autopilot.

 

[woodisgood]

I think this is the kind of thing they would do whether or not it was in the bag.

510k instead of 501k would be as significant as 500k instead of 491k.

And adding FSD for 3 months is a zero cost marketing campaign. Free supercharging isn’t. This is just the first time there is much to show of with free FSD over enhanced autopilot.

Exactly. One could make the argument if the cars came standard with a free demo of FSD they’d sell more FSD, so it’s almost less of an incentive and more of a sneak attack.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I think this is the kind of thing they would do whether or not it was in the bag.

510k instead of 501k would be as significant as 500k instead of 491k.

And adding FSD for 3 months is a zero cost marketing campaign. Free supercharging isn’t. This is just the first time there is much to show of with free FSD over enhanced autopilot.

No, 491K would be spun as a huge miss by the media/shorts and the stock would tank.

 

[Thumper]

Thanks for those of you that pass on significant FB and Twitter messages from Elon and others. I have not put social media into my life so I would otherwise miss things.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Elon and Larry did some binge-watching on Lanai’i.

 

[Sanny]

I can think of SOOOOOOOOOO many cool things to do...hook up VR and the FSD display so that each gas vehicle becomes a dinosaur ...Semis become brontos, Pick-ups triceratops, and Teslas become an abrahms tank. and all pedestrians become Caricatures within the range of Vargas Pin-up to Daisy Mae. Now that'd be a first person shooter game...but it could allow for up to four passenger/players in something more elaborate.

I do some things in VR and I've seen many different people in VR headsets. Best way to make people to throw up is to put VR headsets on while driving them. Some rollercoasters do that with a great success (by this I mean people throw up a lot).

 

[dl003]

Well I hope TSLA has not become boring with the S & P addition.

ARKK was way more volatile than TSLA today. Down more than 4%. Unusual for ARKK to move more than TSLA.

If I was an active fund manager, I'd get a leg up over indexers whenever I buy TSLA below 695. As long as these buys keep trickling in, we'll enjoy a period of relatively low volatility, I think.

 

[willow_hiller]

Exactly. One could make the argument if the cars came standard with a free demo of FSD they’d sell more FSD, so it’s almost less of an incentive and more of a sneak attack.

I wonder if this indicates FSD subscription will be ready in January. I know Tesla has done temporary FSD demos before (my March 2019 SR+ came with a demo), but it would be easier for them to grant/revoke access systematically if they built this new demo into the subscription model.

 

[Nocturnal]

Exactly. One could make the argument if the cars came standard with a free demo of FSD they’d sell more FSD, so it’s almost less of an incentive and more of a sneak attack.

It wasn't so long ago that everyone received 2 weeks of EAP free to test it out.

I do some things in VR and I've seen many different people in VR headsets. Best way to make people to throw up is to put VR headsets on while driving them. Some rollercoasters do that with a great success (by this I mean people throw up a lot).

Ugh, hard pass on that. I can do roller coasters and boats just fine, but stick me in something that spins and it's barf city. VR works fine as long as it doesn't move in weird ways.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Once FSD is out of beta the monthly subscriptions will start and every single sold car will come with two weeks or a month of free trail.

 

[MC3OZ]

I've got a hunch casting and a structural battery pack might help with panel gaps, a car can start out with a strong core that is identical within very fine tolerances, so something has to go wrong for panel gaps to be a problem and fewer steps mean less chance of something going wrong. Any major issue in a particular area of the build may be a candidate for more casting.

The other things we might see in 2021 are:-

• HW4
• Simplified wiring harness

if robots are going to install/partially install the wiring harness casting might help by having channel / attachment points identical on all cars to within fine tolerances.

What we seem to know about HW4 is:-

• Elon said on Autonomy Day about 3 X better than HW3.
• More of an integrated SOC approach probably including the MCU.

I don't expect HW4 is needed for FSD, it should be years before FSD requires anything beyond HW3.
I don't think HW4 needs to be backwards compatible with HW3/HW2, provided Tesla retains sufficient HW3 parts HW2 cars can be upgraded and faulty boards replaced.

So my hunch on HW4 is:-

• Lower overall cost (more components integrated)
• Lower power consumption
• Interface to simplified wiring harness

it always seemed to me the simplified wiring harness was too good an idea to not do it at some stage.

A strong EV competitor needs casting to truly compete with Tesla, that is in addition to everything else they need like batteries, FSD, efficient factories, a charging network, etc. But without casting, it is hard to finish any higher than 2nd.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I wonder if this indicates FSD subscription will be ready in January. I know Tesla has done temporary FSD demos before (my March 2019 SR+ came with a demo), but it would be easier for them to grant/revoke access systematically if they built this new demo into the subscription model.

Pretty much what I'm thinking. I think subscription model gets launched in Jan, definitely sometime in Q1. As others have mentioned, this has practically no cost to Tesla and worth doing to get the last few cars, that were likely just canceled deliveries in the past couple of weeks, delivered.

 

[gabeincal]

 

[Chunky Jr.]

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1344042432053137409

Our buddy Gordon says Tesla FSD doesn’t exist. Must be hanging out with that person who says PowerWalls don’t exist.

 

[wipster]

I think this is the kind of thing they would do whether or not it was in the bag.

510k instead of 501k would be as significant as 500k instead of 491k.

And adding FSD for 3 months is a zero cost marketing campaign. Free supercharging isn’t. This is just the first time there is much to show of with free FSD over enhanced autopilot.

Indeed... it's like running out of (a drug that starts with c and has 7 letters in it's name). You liked it and you want more and you will figure out ways to pay for it. That's why the subscription will be a cash cow.

 

[Alphacrux]

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1344042432053137409

Our buddy Gordon says Tesla FSD doesn’t exist. Must be hanging out with that person who says PowerWalls don’t exist.

Powerwalls do exist. Got final installation on two powerwalls (on order since Q1) completed yesterday. My contribution to Q4 revenues. Along with two bottles of Teslaquilla.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 8 minutes ago: Tesla Unlikely To Cut Model 3 Prices In China, Leaves Door Open For Increases: Report

Excerpt:

With Tesla's localization rate, or the proportion of parts made in China, having hit its target, the electric vehicle giant is unlikely to cut prices in the near future, state-owned Chinese news outlet Yicai Media said, citing Tao Lin, Tesla's China vice president.

The price of EVs largely hinges on the price of raw materials and components, and if these escalate, price hikes of Tesla EVs cannot be ruled out, Lin reportedly said.

 

[mltv]

Powerwalls do exist. Got final installation on two powerwalls (on order since Q1) completed yesterday. My contribution to Q4 revenues. Along with two bottles of Teslaquilla.

Does Teslaquilla exist? I have not seen mine

 

[HG Wells]

Indeed... it's like running out of (a drug that starts with c and has 7 letters in it's name). You liked it and you want more and you will figure out ways to pay for it. That's why the subscription will be a cash cow.

SO, we start with a free sample. Then a introductory 6 month trial at $100 month.
After that we go to $250 month with mileage limits.

Better buy more stock.