Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Thanks for this info. What is Ameritrade's margin equity requirement for TSLA? At IB, it was 70% when I checked months ago.

to make it clear for all others.
the margin requirement may have been 70% on specific securities or classes of securities, and then also based upon your concentration of total equity in that/those securities.

what the OP was talking about was margin lending rate overall

ib fluctuates, as others do as well. i’m pretty sure IBs maintenance rate on TSLA is lower than 70% now...but

they don’t make it very clear from a search perspective. they give you a bulletin. but it’s hard to find out after the fact, which is kind of annoying.

 

[Beltsbear]

Rob is up with his forecast. ~513K production for year, ~506K delivered.

I will go with Troy's estimates, a little lower but still over 502k. Should be a positive for TSLA.

 

[Paul_SF]

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1344848278026907649?s=19

Sweet. I beat Chamath in 2020 in % return. Always looked up to him.

hahaha... in the last All In podcast of 2020, Chamath, the King of Spacs, did say Spacs are the best thing of 2020. Besties had a great time with that!

edit: from https://twitter.com/vcbrags?s=21

 

[EVCollies]

I wish I could type more with my thumbs from a beach in Cozumel, bit I just want to say, "Don't sweat the small stuff and if you are on this thread, long TSLA and have a healthy respect for others, things are gonna be great"

This is the way and I have spoken

Thank you Mando.

 

[sonofjorel]

Thanks for this info. What is Ameritrade's margin equity requirement for TSLA? At IB, it was 70% when I checked months

The maintenance requirement for TSLA on my account is 50% and I am heavily concentrated with TSLA.

 

[Paul_SF]

George doing some marketing for Comma.

 

[PeterJA]

We're in uncertain macro territory. A large stock market decline is very possible, and we don't know how long it would last. Tesla is better positioned than many others to ride out a period of economic calamity and also expand its market, but TSLA could go down a little or a lot before things get better. I'm not saying this will happen. I'm reacting to the certainty some people seem to have that TSLA will continue to go up. I believe it will in the long run, but the short and medium term could be different.

I agree with this. But I'm less worried about an extended downturn with TSLA than any other high-flyer I've owned (and there have been a lot). IMO, Tesla is growing too fast to have an extended downturn that never seems to end. Of course, people these days seems more impatient than I am accustomed to. I'm not kidding, some get antsy after a month of no new highs, LOL! I'm more than willing to wait a year or a bit longer to make new highs. It's really no big deal unless you were planning to spend the money right away anyway. Because the growth it does display, during periods of high share price growth, more than make up for the stagnant periods.

Adding to @StealthP3D's helpful reply...

Economic calamity just happened -- a once-in-century global pandemic. In Q2 last year, US auto sales collapsed for every make and model except Tesla.
Seeing Red: U.S. Auto Sales, Q2 2020 - The Truth About Cars

TSLA did drop 60% from February to March, but was back up in 3 months. And that was before the following:

• Giga Berlin groundbreaking
• Giga Austin announcement
• Giga Shanghai Phase 2 completion
• Battery Day
  
• S&P 500 inclusion
• FSD beta release
• Made in China Model Y release
• solar roof ramp-up (underway)
• Powerwall and Megapack ramp-up (underway)
• Q4 blowout (imminent)

A lot has happened to Tesla since TSLA last tanked, and a lot more will happen soon (factory completions, new product releases). Of course a macro calamity could strike again, but TSLA is in a different league now. AAPL and GOOG dropped only 30% last February, and were back up in 2-4 months.

To tank TSLA for years, the calamity would have to destroy global demand for transportation and energy. That seems unlikely to me, unless civilization collapses. If it does, no stock or cash will be a safe investment.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

There is some truth to that, I think (people becoming lazier as their net worth increases) but I think a bigger contributor is probably the many people who have sold off some or all of their TSLA at prices much below $3500 (split adjusted). As I recall, in December 2019 some people thought $400+ was an incredible price and that it would not be maintained. That's when I posted this during a small price correction:



But some people didn't think Tesla was that special and they sold out right around New Years 2020 before it zoomed up to breath-taking new highs.

Then COVID happened. I had numerous posts imploring people to use their heads, that pandemic or not, people would still work, play, eat and have babies. A pandemic was not a reason to sell because the effect would be very temporary. But plenty did sell before it zoomed back, eventually reaching over $2000 before it split. And then more people sold.

Then S&P 500 inclusion happened taking it over $3000 (and eventually to it's current $3500+ split adjusted price). More people sold. I imagine even those who might have sold a large chunk, but not all of their position, at much lower prices might have a sickening feeling every time they think of TSLA and how much money they left on the table. And that's probably not conducive in terms of wanting to discuss TSLA day and night as the did previously when they still had their full TSLA position.

I think we have lost more participants due to early selling of positions (with the plan to buy in at lower prices) than we have gained with new members wanting to discuss the company. Many of the new TSLA shareholders are large funds who generally don't participate in forums such as this.

We also lost prolific posters Fact Checking and KarenRei. Thankfully you haven't left us. I've sent many of your posts to friends and family to try to show them the light. Most didn't heed your great advice, but at least I tried. Thank you for not leaving in huff. You definitely nailed that post in December 2019. Wish I had crystal ball too.

 

[Mo City]

View attachment 623407

George doing some marketing for Comma.

FSD is just one reason why I believe ($850-$900) Jan2023 LEAPS have a good risk/reward.

 

[GOVA]

Adding to @StealthP3D's helpful reply...

Economic calamity just happened -- a once-in-century global pandemic. In Q2 last year, US auto sales collapsed for every make and model except Tesla.
Seeing Red: U.S. Auto Sales, Q2 2020 - The Truth About Cars

TSLA did drop 60% from February to March, but was back up in 3 months. And that was before the following:

• Giga Berlin groundbreaking
• Giga Austin announcement
• Giga Shanghai Phase 2 completion
• Battery Day
  
• S&P 500 inclusion
• FSD beta release
• Made in China Model Y release
• solar roof ramp-up (underway)
• Powerwall and Megapack ramp-up (underway)
• Q4 blowout (imminent)

A lot has happened to Tesla since TSLA last tanked, and a lot more will happen soon (factory completions, new product releases). Of course a macro calamity could strike again, but TSLA is in a different league now. AAPL and GOOG dropped only 30% last February, and were back up in 2-4 months.

To tank TSLA for years, the calamity would have to destroy global demand for transportation and energy. That seems unlikely to me, unless civilization collapses. If it does, no stock or cash will be a safe investment.

This should be mandatory read for so many, even in this forum.

 

[StealthP3D]

We also lost prolific posters Fact Checking and KarenRei. Thankfully you haven't left us. I've sent many of your posts to friends and family to try to show them the light. Most didn't heed your great advice, but at least I tried. Thank you for not leaving in huff. You definitely nailed that post in December 2019. Wish I had crystal ball too.

Ha! Well, no crystal ball here either but by December 2019 the stock had turned the corner and the momentum was just beginning to build so it was pretty much a given, short of a completely unexpected disruptive event. Now the near-term is a much more difficult call and I remain invested for the long-term, much better than average gains that I suspect Tesla will generate. I am mentally fully prepared for a sharp correction and yet it would be foolish to bet on it because even with the very generous valuation it could easily get much better before it corrects.

 

[Ameliorate]

Stuff like this is just one reason why I believe ($850-$900) Jan2023 LEAPS have a good risk/reward.

My portfolio is about 10% in those! I've done really well with calls and LEAPS this past year. Disclaimer, past performance not indicative of future results (But I think they'll do just fine when they expire in 2023 around an SP of 2500+ )
Am expecting to catch some large upside from FSD in the next two years - that's what my bet here is.

 

[Nurkbonis]

I have some Jan 23 $950s.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The Dark Money Secretly Bankrolling Activist Short-Sellers — and the Insiders Trying to Expose It

The Dark Money Secretly Bankrolling Activist
Short-Sellers — and the Insiders Trying to Expose It
Institutional Investor from last November.

"But if the purpose of a balance-sheet partner is to inject so much selling into the stock that it mechanically drives the price down because there's not enough demand anymore, and that in turn triggers stop losses and triggers other people to sell . . . that may be evidence of manipulative intent.”

Sound familiar?

 

[Nurkbonis]

GoJo. Fo sho.

The Dark Money Secretly Bankrolling Activist Short-Sellers — and the Insiders Trying to Expose It

The Dark Money Secretly Bankrolling Activist
Short-Sellers — and the Insiders Trying to Expose It
Institutional Investor from last November.

"But if the purpose of a balance-sheet partner is to inject so much selling into the stock that it mechanically drives the price down because there's not enough demand anymore, and that in turn triggers stop losses and triggers other people to sell . . . that may be evidence of manipulative intent.”

Sound familiar?

 

[dc_h]

But truly,

I will not April Fool's prank delivery numbers for the 3rd year in a row.

I will not April Fool's prank delivery numbers for the 3rd year in a row.

I will not April Fool's prank delivery numbers for the 3rd year in a row.

Mod: good idea. --ggr.

They wouldn’t put April 1st at the end of Q1 if you weren’t supposed to do it.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla Giga Shangai Model Y Has Arrived at Showrooms in Several Cities in China

We have learned that close to 300 units of the MIC (Made-in-China) Model Y were made recently at Gigafactory Shanghai, and all of them are for showcasing purposes.

"Many Chinese consumers are heading to the Tesla showrooms to checkout the MIC Model Y in the coming days, some locations will have the Model Y from Jan 2nd 2021," people familiar with the matter told Tesmanian.

 

[mekberg]

Tesla Giga Shangai Model Y Has Arrived at Showrooms in Several Cities in China

We have learned that close to 300 units of the MIC (Made-in-China) Model Y were made recently at Gigafactory Shanghai, and all of them are for showcasing purposes.

"Many Chinese consumers are heading to the Tesla showrooms to checkout the MIC Model Y in the coming days, some locations will have the Model Y from Jan 2nd 2021," people familiar with the matter told Tesmanian.

If they’re going to purposely generate this much demand it makes me believe gigapress can go brrrrrrr.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Everyone that was more than 70% in TSLA in 2020 beat Chamath. Chamath is playing the long game and will truly do the Social Change he’s working on. The next decades will make the last decades seem... average.

The Roaring 20’s have started, majority doesn’t know it yet. Like always.

Amazing times to be alive. Grateful to be here, experiencing this.

Humanity will prevail!

The original Roaring 20's gave way to the Great Depression and the second of two World Wars. So let's uh not get too excited about this. Another World War would certainly be a nuclear exchange and that would instantly end our species.

 

[jhm]

The Dark Money Secretly Bankrolling Activist Short-Sellers — and the Insiders Trying to Expose It

The Dark Money Secretly Bankrolling Activist
Short-Sellers — and the Insiders Trying to Expose It
Institutional Investor from last November.

"But if the purpose of a balance-sheet partner is to inject so much selling into the stock that it mechanically drives the price down because there's not enough demand anymore, and that in turn triggers stop losses and triggers other people to sell . . . that may be evidence of manipulative intent.”

Sound familiar?

They made it so easy to accumulate shares on the cheap. Made me wealthy.