Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Brian121]

There is some truth to that, I think (people becoming lazier as their net worth increases) but I think a bigger contributor is probably the many people who have sold off some or all of their TSLA at prices much below $3500 (split adjusted). As I recall, in December 2019 some people thought $400+ was an incredible price and that it would not be maintained. That's when I posted this during a small price correction:



But some people didn't think Tesla was that special and they sold out right around New Years 2020 before it zoomed up to breath-taking new highs.

Then COVID happened. I had numerous posts imploring people to use their heads, that pandemic or not, people would still work, play, eat and have babies. A pandemic was not a reason to sell because the effect would be very temporary. But plenty did sell before it zoomed back, eventually reaching over $2000 before it split. And then more people sold.

Then S&P 500 inclusion happened taking it over $3000 (and eventually to it's current $3500+ split adjusted price). More people sold. I imagine even those who might have sold a large chunk, but not all of their position, at much lower prices might have a sickening feeling every time they think of TSLA and how much money they left on the table. And that's probably not conducive in terms of wanting to discuss TSLA day and night as the did previously when they still had their full TSLA position.

I think we have lost more participants due to early selling of positions (with the plan to buy in at lower prices) than we have gained with new members wanting to discuss the company. Many of the new TSLA shareholders are large funds who generally don't participate in forums such as this.

Personal opinion, I don't think people "didn't think Tesla was that special". Instead, I think it is that they tried to outsmart the market and wind up got beaten by it.

From 2013 to really as late as September of 2019, TSLA was stuck at 150 to 375 range. It was a painful period to watch the company you believed in get attacked by short sellers and special interests groups relentlessly.

Even though Tesla is making steady progress according to the Grand Master Plan 1, but TSLA did not follow suite. For that 6 years, a lot of company's stock double or tripled. If you hold AAPL for that period, it appreciated maybe 6 times. Heck, even Boeing jumped from 110 to 350 before 737 Max 8 fiasco.

It's excruciating even for Elon, let along the individual investors, thus his constant battle with short sellers and eventual "going private at 420"

So, to alleviate the pain, a lot of people started to develop this "smart" trade of buying below $200 and selling above $350, and they were "rewarded."

Well, it worked until it didn't.

For anyone that thinks they can outsmart market, my advice is "Don't." Just hodl, you will have a life and you can actually come up ahead of a lot of the smart people.

But it takes discipline and perseverance. The discipline of do the simple thing, do nothing.

 

[jhm]

Can someone point me to the 2021 thread? Next stop $270.

 

[Runarbt]

Can someone point me to the 2021 thread? Next stop $270.

One thread to rule them all.

You have arrived.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hope you can figured out something that works for you guys, and for Tesla.

But I was thinking more like them buying a grid that serves a few million people or something. Fix it at every level so to speak. From producing the energy, to distributing it, to using it.

I started this discussion here on Feb 13, 2020:

PG&E’s Fire Victims Are Set to Become Its Biggest Shareholders | WSJ.com (15 hrs ago)

Blue sky'ing this here folks, not suggesting what could or should happen:

How much would it cost for Tesla to buy PG&E (the bankrupt NorCal Electric Utility)?

What are the advantages, disadvantages, risks to owning such a utility?

Thanks for your thoughts. All discussion warmly received... (NOT a fire season joke!)

Cheers!

Not well received at the time (in my experience, people don't think much further than their own belly buttons). This business venture becomes more and more obvious as time passes.

However, Tesla was undercapitalized (and over-tasked) a year ago. Two years from now, it'll be a different story with 4 Gigafactories in operation. And four years from now, Tesla may be the largest company in the world.

Fixing and moderizing San Francisco's electrical grid would be an obvious benefit for enabling the continued expansion of Tesla EV share in the Bay area. Smart grids with smart chargers work well with smart EVs.

The 2030s should see Tesla (and the Bay area) reach near 100% EV market penetration. I'm banking on this.

Cheers!

TL;dr HODL

 

[Buckminster]

A bit more on the S refresh:
Tesla Model S prototype with refresh design spotted in the wild - Electrek

 

[NicoV]

The original Roaring 20's gave way to the Great Depression and the second of two World Wars. So let's uh not get too excited about this. Another World War would certainly be a nuclear exchange and that would instantly end our species.

If that becomes true, all the more reason to make the twenties roaring.

 

[Dreadnought]

The original Roaring 20's gave way to the Great Depression and the second of two World Wars. So let's uh not get too excited about this. Another World War would certainly be a nuclear exchange and that would instantly end our species.

It doesn't need a full blown WW to accumulate a backlog of travel, partying and other fun stuff. A global pandemic was all it took. Combine this with governments around the world printing money and multiple technological revolutions just taking off, which are:

1. AI aka Machine Learning. The impact cannot be overestimated IMO. It enables completely new applications like detecting a corona infection from the sound of a cough or self-driving cars and is a foundational technology for all of the following. Machine Learning is still in the just getting started stage and will boldly recognize patterns where no human ever expected any.
2. Cheap renewable energy. Cost of energy has put a lid on economical growth for the last century. The energy generation oligopoly is coming to an end (foremost, but not limited to supply of oil and gas).
3. Manufacturing efficiency. Tesla is a prime example for bringing down COGS but not the only one. Using less and cheaper energy to source the raw materials and all the way to delivery, leveraging computers to optimize the heck out of every aspect of the manufacturing chain, from factory floor layout to supply chain and product design.

... and you have a setup for Roaring 20s Reloaded.

Computers and the internet have already revolutionized the world in the past 40 years. Still, I foresee a further acceleration in the feedback loop of advances in computer science and general research.


There will be negative consequences. Jobs made redundant and a further divide between those that can go the pace and those left behind are my primary concern. The rise of populists is an early sign of this development but things can get really ugly if politics doesn't come up with answers.

 

[heltok]

Seems Model Y production has been going rather well:

1.20 into the video for parking lot
(31st dec)

 

[petit_bateau]

I hope you can figured out something that works for you guys, and for Tesla.

But I was thinking more like them buying a grid that serves a few million people or something. Fix it at every level so to speak. From producing the energy, to distributing it, to using it.

I think you'll find they are doing demonstrator projects one island at a time, starting with the continent-sized one : AUSTRALIA.

(That is one reason why doing a 10-residence mini grid in the boonies of Alaska doesn't really get a great deal of focus, besides which mini-grid and micro-grid stuff is a well-trodden pathway to beating yourself up over high costs and low benefits. Worse in remote places. I have that T-shirt.)

 

[Cobos]

Personal opinion, I don't think people "didn't think Tesla was that special". Instead, I think it is that they tried to outsmart the market and wind up got beaten by it.

From 2013 to really as late as September of 2019, TSLA was stuck at 150 to 375 range. It was a painful period to watch the company you believed in get attacked by short sellers and special interests groups relentlessly.

Even though Tesla is making steady progress according to the Grand Master Plan 1, but TSLA did not follow suite. For that 6 years, a lot of company's stock double or tripled. If you hold AAPL for that period, it appreciated maybe 6 times. Heck, even Boeing jumped from 110 to 350 before 737 Max 8 fiasco.

It's excruciating even for Elon, let along the individual investors, thus his constant battle with short sellers and eventual "going private at 420"

So, to alleviate the pain, a lot of people started to develop this "smart" trade of buying below $200 and selling above $350, and they were "rewarded."

Well, it worked until it didn't.

For anyone that thinks they can outsmart market, my advice is "Don't." Just hodl, you will have a life and you can actually come up ahead of a lot of the smart people.

But it takes discipline and perseverance. The discipline of do the simple thing, do nothing.

Taxes also helps. Norway has FIFO rules for all stocks which helps to "lock in" early gains. For me that had a significant chunk of my shares at around $22, the taxes at about 30% was huge. So for me any trading had to beat the 30% loss I would take on my amount to trade with to break even. And stupidly I felt sure I could do a 10% or a 20% gain on trading in and out, but above 30% wasn't that sure. In hindsight there were several 50%+ gains to be had during 2013-2029 but I couldn't see those clearly. So at the time I was really annoyed at the FIFO rules, but now I see it forced me to HODL and I also realize my idea of me as a trader is mostly a Platonic idea and not really reality.

Case in point.
I've opened a trading account at my broker (which technically is a life insurance product that pays out whatever I have sitting in the account +1% when I die), that allows me to trade as much as I like and I only pay taxes when I withdraw money out of the account. It doesn't allow margin or options though since it's "life insurance". I've added about $10 000 so not big amounts, and what have I done there?

I bought TSLA and I've been HODL'ing! This was supposed to be me trading in and out hitting the tops and buying at the bottom. Instead I've kind of realised I'm no good at trading, it doesn't match my personality really.

 

[jbcarioca]

I didn't actually, I was just being my normal sarcastic self. And that's all I have to say about that.

OK, I give up. It's a new year and this is the TSLA investors forum. So, why is there a Ford Pinto in your avatar?
As I recall such vehicles were never a wise investment and also, IIRC, they has some slight safety deficiencies, notably fires! Yes, you're trolling the "Tesla catches fire" reports.
Is that it? /s

 

[jbcarioca]

Ha! Well, no crystal ball here either but by December 2019 the stock had turned the corner and the momentum was just beginning to build so it was pretty much a given, short of a completely unexpected disruptive event. Now the near-term is a much more difficult call and I remain invested for the long-term, much better than average gains that I suspect Tesla will generate. I am mentally fully prepared for a sharp correction and yet it would be foolish to bet on it because even with the very generous valuation it could easily get much better before it corrects.

There is a reason why I read your every post. Happy New Year! We all should be prepared for wild swings in price of TSLA. As Elon points out often, in other words, the price may change value but the value does not. This company performance is the only reliable way to assess value. I HODL because predicting short term markets is a like weather forecasting problem: We look and hope it's right but weather forecasts are really good about the past, not so much about the future. Mark Twain allegedly was first to say it so succinctly:
“Prediction is difficult- particularly when it involves the future.”

 

[CorneliusXX]

There is a reason why I read your every post. Happy New Year! We all should be prepared for wild swings in price of TSLA. As Elon points out often, in other words, the price may change value but the value does not. This company performance is the only reliable way to assess value. I HOBL because predicting short term markets is a like weather forecasting problem: We look and hope it's right but weather forecasts are really good about the past, not so much about the future. Mark Twain allegedly was first to say it so succinctly:
“Prediction is difficult- particularly when it involves the future.”

Given the runup over the last year, It would be interesting to hear from others on the board how the gearing on their Tesla exposure has changed.

• For those trading options - Do you hold more or less compared to Dec-19?
• For those using leverage - have you increased or decreased it?

I hold my position via CFDs - in June 19 I had "core" positions which had c.80% equity backing and my "trading" positions used about 80% debt at entry (although that reduced as the price increased). I'm virtually out of all my trading positions now and my riskiest positions only have around 25% leverage. At this stage I'm more fearful of a pullback and losing my hard one positions than I am greedy around missing out on leveraged upside.

Of course that will change as Tesla continues to execute - or if I think there is a short term catalyst for the stock to pop.

 

[15Peter20]

OK, I give up. It's a new year and this is the TSLA investors forum. So, why is there a Ford Pinto in your avatar?
As I recall such vehicles were never a wise investment and also, IIRC, they has some slight safety deficiencies, notably fires! Yes, you're trolling the "Tesla catches fire" reports.
Is that it? /s

Probably the battery that caught fire right?

 

[HG Wells]

Given the runup over the last year, It would be interesting to hear from others on the board how the gearing on their Tesla exposure has changed.

I have gone from all options to 70% stock and 30% options.

Even sold some june 900's against 20% of my stock.

 

[jbcarioca]

Probably the battery that caught fire right?

Actually it was the gasoline tank.

At the time it was infamous.
Seemingly off-topic this really illustrates how product safety standards have changed over the years. Nobody would design anything like that today, nor the swing-axle VW/Corvair, among others.
It is indeed bizarre to report every single Tesla fire and ignore thousands of ICE fires.
Every safety advance of Tesla counts. Another reason to HODL.

 

[HG Wells]

Who could forget that comedy where a half track bumps a pinto.

 

[Unpilot]

I HOBL

Sorry about that...hope you get better soon.

 

[jbcarioca]

Sorry about that...hope you get better soon.

Oops! corrected.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Given the runup over the last year, It would be interesting to hear from others on the board how the gearing on their Tesla exposure has changed.

• For those trading options - Do you hold more or less compared to Dec-19?
• For those using leverage - have you increased or decreased it?

I hold my position via CFDs - in June 19 I had "core" positions which had c.80% equity backing and my "trading" positions used about 80% debt at entry (although that reduced as the price increased). I'm virtually out of all my trading positions now and my riskiest positions only have around 25% leverage. At this stage I'm more fearful of a pullback and losing my hard one positions than I am greedy around missing out on leveraged upside.

Of course that will change as Tesla continues to execute - or if I think there is a short term catalyst for the stock to pop.

Too cautious/risk averse too do anything other than stocks - no derivatives. They smack of gambling too me...

I do not believe that I am able to assess infrequent/unusual - and certainly not black swan risks - well enough to understand the true risk/cost/value of these instruments.
I hear a lot of success stories, but... I guess there is also a bias there: Who tells broadly about their failed transactions?
Post from notable TMC'ers like StealthP3D and jbcarioca strengthens my resolve.
Indeed multiple posts from jbcarioca seem to indicate that people might be fooling themselves into thinking that they have the risk under control - even if they are very smart Nobel laureates.
And they do - right up to the point when they don't anymore... which is often the worst time for that to happen...

Plus, I invested most of my holdings a few years back when Tesla was under attack/threat from multiple risks - owning real stocks were, at times, stressful enough.
Kudos to those who are doing great a derivatives - more power to you. (I hope you take unusual/black swan events into account.)

I know my limitations: They are not for me.

TLDR: I am smart enough to know that I am not smart enough...