Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Agreed. The 2020Q4 P&D numbers are about Tesla 'delivering-as-promised'.

$5.01 Trillion worth of S&P 500 Index Fund Managers will sleep well Sunday night (and likely tip a glass of bubby tonight). Meeting numbers matters. So does consistency. Tesla can now be trusted to do both.

Telsa is EXACTLY on track. THIS IS HUGE! It means that their production predictions (6-FRIGGIN' YEARS in advance), can be counted on as highly accurate for investment decisions.

2027 is in the bag for investment managers. Floodgates, meet TSLA!

Cheers!

P.S. Imma argue that meeting their numbers is even BETTER than beating their numbers (which would just show they didn't aim high enough). Again, THIS IS HUGE.

Well done, Elon and Team!

Yeah all the bear sentiment I am getting from this thread is unfounded. Elon went from randomly guessing to guiding with laser focus. This is what wallstreet wants. And this will add increasing credibility to his "50% a year growth for the next decade", "100 gigawatt hours of new cell by 2022", and "3 terawatt hours by 2030". The fact that he guided for this 6 freaken years ago while meeting with nothing but eye roll will go down as one of the most difficult and yet accurate guide of all time. It's like hitting a 3 pointer not from mid court, but from another stadium.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah all the bear sentiment I am getting from this thread is unfounded. Elon went from randomly guessing to guiding with laser focus. This is what wallstreet wants. And this will add increasing credibility to his "50% a year growth for the next decade", "100 gigawatt hours of new cell by 2022", and "3 terawatt hours by 2030". The fact that he guided for this 6 freaken years ago while meeting with nothing but eye roll will go down as one of the most difficult and yet accurate guide of all time. It's like hitting a 3 pointer not from mid court, but from another stadium.

Yeah I'm not sure how the stock is going to react to Tesla essentially exactly hitting it's target on Monday. Considering the average .3% gain in deliveries that happens between P/D numbers and earnings, Tesla will likely cross 500,000 for deliveries.....hitting Elon's target with like you said, laser accuracy.

I will be pulling back my 2021 estimates from 1 million to 900,000-950,000 though until we get guidance from Tesla on earnings. But then again I've been one of the most bullish ones here so me pulling back my estimates just a bit is still really bullish.

On the flip side given these numbers for Q4 and the fact that MIC Y is ramping up production quite well, I'm more confident that Q1 will have higher P/D numbers than Q4 than I was yesterday

 

[clmason]

I wonder if we're going to see an inverse of the stock action that we saw from most of 2020 when it comes to P/D numbers and earnings. I could see the stock selling off a bit 5-10% and then rallying after Q4 earnings and 2021 guidance. For most of 2020, the rally's took place after P/D's came out and then sold off on earnings.

S&P inclusion should provide more share price stability now that a good chunk of the float is off the table. At least I hope. Congrats all HODL-ers. 2021 gonna be fun.

 

[Pezpunk]

Lora Kolodny is reporting that Tesla produced 170,757, not 179,757. An honest mistake I'm sure..

Tesla reports nearly 500,000 vehicle deliveries for 2020, hitting target

headline has been changed to "slightly missing target". haha.

 

[hitchhiker]

Using Q4 totals as an estimate of their current run-rate, that adds up to a run-rate of 722k/year now. Pretty likely they can hit 750k (50% growth) for 2021.

 

[juanmedina]

headline has been changed to "slightly missing target". haha.

Yeap

 

[MP3Mike]

S&P inclusion should provide more share price stability now that a good chunk of the float is off the table. At least I hope.

I always thought that having less float available would increase volatility.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Using Q4 totals as an estimate of their current run-rate, that adds up to a run-rate of 722k/year now. Pretty likely they can hit 750k (50% growth) for 2021.

Which basically doesn't include MIC Model Y at all.....since MIC Y is following MIC 3 pretty much exactly if not quicker, we should expect at least 150k MIC Y's to 2021. So essentially 900,000. We'll see if Berlin, Texas, and S/X refresh can add enough volume to get to 1 million.

 

[Discoducky]

I significantly deleveraged last week. While I still think TSLA will continue to go up, I think trading will be a bit more volatile for a while. I basically converted all options that couldn't become long term capital gains into stock, 50% TSLA, and the other 50% split between the various ARK funds. That was about 15% of my total TSLA-related investment. As the LEAPS become long term, I will be selling just enough to exercise the rest, which will actually lower my cost basis in many cases. That's my plan, anyway.

Right there with you, however I have some PLL and Steel Dynamics in play as I want to support those companies that have contracts with Tesla.

 

[brianhn1]

Friendly reminder that it is 2021 and IRA contributions are allowed now for the new year!

Put that money in that IRA and put a buy order for Monday, 8 or so new shares that can grow tax deferred or tax free!

 

[Singuy]

Yeah I'm not sure how the stock is going to react to Tesla essentially exactly hitting it's target on Monday. Considering the average .3% gain in deliveries that happens between P/D numbers and earnings, Tesla will likely cross 500,000 for deliveries.....hitting Elon's target with like you said, laser accuracy.

I will be pulling back my 2021 estimates from 1 million to 900,000-950,000 though until we get guidance from Tesla on earnings. But then again I've been one of the most bullish ones here so me pulling back my estimates just a bit is still really bullish.

On the flip side given these numbers for Q4 and the fact that MIC Y is ramping up production quite well, I'm more confident that Q1 will have higher P/D numbers than Q4 than I was yesterday

I don't know why you are expecting a 100% yoy growth when the guide is 50%...750k is what was guided and let's just stick with that.

 

[Beltsbear]

I always thought that having less float available would increase volatility.

Alone yes. But we just have less sellers in this case. Same number of buyers.

 

[woodisgood]

I always thought that having less float available would increase volatility.

Birds-eye view, yes that would be true. But if you believe a lot of the downward movements were previously amplified by “extreme” shorting and related activities, the downward moves may be a little more reasonable and subdued now instead of the exaggerated cliffs we’re used to seeing.

 

[Tslynk67]

I have to admit, a refreshed S that feels like a 3 on the inside will make me look very hard at a plaid.

Same here... I want a Roadster, but no idea when...

Looks like Headline frenzy of a miss is for the algo's. The fine print is that delivery miss is < 1 %.
EM mentioned 500K for 2020 like 4-5 years ago.

BTFD!! (Buy The **In DIP)

Well, well, well, a Lora Kolodny article without any FUD at all; or allusions towards it, neither cynicism or snide remarks, just factual and correct (OK, one error, see if you spot it). I'm shocked! Tesla reports 499,550 vehicle deliveries for 2020, slightly missing target

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, something's wrong in your calculation. IPO price was $17 (pre), we're over 200x IPO now.

Yeah, something's wrong with the IPO system: no retail investor can ever buy shares at that price.

My CAGR is based on TSLA's Closing Price on it's first day of trading, July 2nd 2010.

Retail HODL'rs actually COULD have those gains. Paging @Krugerrand and a few others I think...

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Which basically doesn't include MIC Model Y at all.....since MIC Y is following MIC 3 pretty much exactly if not quicker, we should expect at least 150k MIC Y's to 2021. So essentially 900,000. We'll see if Berlin, Texas, and S/X refresh can add enough volume to get to 1 million.

Car production is limited by cell production. So until new cell line is pumping out more, I don't think Tesla can go above 60% growth hence the guide. His guide is exponential which means battery cell production is expected to ramp with it for 2022.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't know why you are expecting a 100% yoy growth when the guide is 50%...750k is what was guided and let's just stick with that.

Huh? They haven't guided at all. The comment from Elon on the last earnings call was from a question of is 850k to a million a good range estimate for 2021, to which he said "Yes"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Car production is limited by cell production. So until new cell line is pumping out more, I don't think Tesla can go above 60% growth hence the guide. His guide is exponential which means battery cell production is expected to ramp with it for 2022.

Not sure why you're bringing that up. They've spent all of the 2nd half of 2020 getting battery cell supply lined up for Giga China production increases. They wouldn't be ramping MIC Model Y until they had the supply to ramp it

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah, something's wrong with the IPO system: no retail investor can ever buy shares at that price.

No!...wall street is a bunch of crooked thief's you say.

Ok you didn't say it but I will...they are a bunch of crooked thiefs.
The way IPO's work is just one example of that.

Sorry for the rant I just got triggered.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Tesla needs 780,369 cars produced in 2021 to be on pace for 20,000,000 cars produced by the end of the decade. No complicated math, just working backwards from 20,000,000 through dividing by 1.5 each year. Everything is on target. If Elon confirms that he’ll be at 6,000,000 cars produced by 2026...methinks they’ll listen...with 20,000,000 right around the corner in 2030.

We’ll focus on production because demand is not, has not, will not ever...be an issue...