My projection for 2021 production first solidified in October when I saw the QA3 ER PDF. In October 2020 they had "installed annual capacities" of 840,000 vehicles. MIC Model Y was listed as "under construction."
- A recent report projects 245,000 Model Y's out of Shanghai, and a total of 523,000 annual production for 2021. Much higher than the figure in Tesla's October report.
- Then we have any output from the Berlin and Austin factories. Consider if they can put out 50,000 vehicles TOTAL - in 2021 - which I think is simply being conservative.
- Then we have any improvement at Fremont/Nevada over the numbers published in October 2020. Which we know always happen, however slight they may be. Not even going to factor in demand changes from Plaid/potential refreshes. But they do have Kato Road and the switch to 4680 tech, which multiplies up the amount of batteries they can produce and, if they are truly battery constrained as they always claim, then surely they can produce more cars. I project a 5% production increase at Fremont/Nevada over 2020.
840,000 - 250,000 + 523,000 + 50,000 = 1,163,000. A 5% bump from Fremont/Nevada would see 619,500 vehicles from there in 2021, for a total of 1,192,500 vehicles globally. So that is my optimistic projection for production. A conservative projection for production would be 1,000,000.
If Tesla announces a forecast of 850,000 deliveries for 2021, I think that would absolutely be sandbagging and only the dumbest analysts would not notice. The basic clue is, when you build more factories, you're not just talking about cranking up production at existing facilities. You have a step-change. Shanghai Phase 2, Berlin and Austin all adding to the production totals over 2020 is going to make a massive difference in 2021.
As we continue through this decade and march towards Tesla's goal of 20,000,000 vehicles/yr, the question we will be asking is how many new factories are simultaneously under construction? By teh end of the decade, don't be surprised if they have five factories under simultaneous construction. Brazil, India, South Africa, Europe #2 and USA #3.