Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

My projection for 2021 production first solidified in October when I saw the QA3 ER PDF. In October 2020 they had "installed annual capacities" of 840,000 vehicles. MIC Model Y was listed as "under construction."

• A recent report projects 245,000 Model Y's out of Shanghai, and a total of 523,000 annual production for 2021. Much higher than the figure in Tesla's October report.

• Then we have any output from the Berlin and Austin factories. Consider if they can put out 50,000 vehicles TOTAL - in 2021 - which I think is simply being conservative.

• Then we have any improvement at Fremont/Nevada over the numbers published in October 2020. Which we know always happen, however slight they may be. Not even going to factor in demand changes from Plaid/potential refreshes. But they do have Kato Road and the switch to 4680 tech, which multiplies up the amount of batteries they can produce and, if they are truly battery constrained as they always claim, then surely they can produce more cars. I project a 5% production increase at Fremont/Nevada over 2020.

840,000 - 250,000 + 523,000 + 50,000 = 1,163,000. A 5% bump from Fremont/Nevada would see 619,500 vehicles from there in 2021, for a total of 1,192,500 vehicles globally. So that is my optimistic projection for production. A conservative projection for production would be 1,000,000.

If Tesla announces a forecast of 850,000 deliveries for 2021, I think that would absolutely be sandbagging and only the dumbest analysts would not notice. The basic clue is, when you build more factories, you're not just talking about cranking up production at existing facilities. You have a step-change. Shanghai Phase 2, Berlin and Austin all adding to the production totals over 2020 is going to make a massive difference in 2021.

As we continue through this decade and march towards Tesla's goal of 20,000,000 vehicles/yr, the question we will be asking is how many new factories are simultaneously under construction? By teh end of the decade, don't be surprised if they have five factories under simultaneous construction. Brazil, India, South Africa, Europe #2 and USA #3.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Yes, I, too, invest in Tesla because I think it's best positioned to make a serious dent in climate change. IMHO climate change is at crisis level and is by far and away humanity's biggest problem.

I've been thinking about what to do with my TSLA gains, and I'm leaning towards buying a used Tesla or getting solar panels for family/friends each time my account goes up $150K or so. At this point, more money doesn't do me any good, so it's in my best interest to improve public health (in my mind, public health and the environment are just different sides of the same coin--they are inseparable).

I'm not very intelligent, and don't have the world-changing entrepreneurial gift that Musk has, so I figure I might as well give my money back to the company who is best at allocating capital to fight climate change. I made a joke a few days back about buying an X, but I know I won't, public health is more important, so I'd rather buy three M3s for the price of one X.

Similar here. I already have two EVs, convinced others to buy EVs, live in a zero carbon utility area, vegetarian, grow my own vegetables, no longer fly, recycle everything, buy used, etc. There’s not much else I can do so I’m planning to buy MY or M3 for family members, thereby incentivizing businesses that reduce oil consumption.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla Model Y Sells Out in China, Delivery Dates Now Show Sometime in Q2 - TeslaNorth.com

According to Tesla’s website, Model Y deliveries are now indicating sometime in Q2 of 2021. This would mean someone ordering today won’t get their Model Y in China until April, May or June of this year, according to @ray4tesla.

 

[adiggs]

NY Times needle on GA Senate races pointing towards likelihood of split 50-50 Senate, meaning Biden would be able to pass climate legislation. Fingers crossed for Tesla becoming eligible for $7,500 tax credit again.

The thing about a split senate (50:50) or even a split in the Georgia senate race (leaving a 51:49 split) is that in the first case, somebody besides McConnell will control what gets a vote, but otherwise, every senator has leverage. In the second case, McConnell can single-handedly cause everything to stop in the senate should he so desire (and we know already that he does), but too much obstructionism and he might just drive a single Republican senator out of his camp and start losing votes he thought he would win.

I'd bet Romney at least would push for stuff to get votes, even if everybody knows they will lose. There is a big difference between stuff being voted on and failing, versus never getting a vote at all. Getting votes is an important component of a functioning democracy - stuff losing in a vote is also an important component of a functioning democracy.

And some senators on each side of the aisle are in states where reelection isn't a foregone conclusion, and thus they have to also consider individual votes in terms of being reelected by their electorate.

Senators, on both sides of the aisle, have different motivations.


Regarding climate legislation, that might require all 50 democratic senators. Maybe some republicans will cross over (it's not strictly a party issue), but it's neither a foregone conclusion, nor will it be anywhere as aggressive as most of us would like it to be. Because every single senator will have some degree of veto power and/or outside motivations based on who elects them. And that will add up to a whole bunch of water being stirred into the legislation.

 

[trailhound]

Yes but every long here just cares about the sp tomorrow. Tis what happens when daily sp takes away or give away a roaDster when back in the days it was merely an expensive dinner.

fixed that for you

 

[johnm6875]

Tesla Model Y Sells Out in China, Delivery Dates Now Show Sometime in Q2 - TeslaNorth.com

According to Tesla’s website, Model Y deliveries are now indicating sometime in Q2 of 2021. This would mean someone ordering today won’t get their Model Y in China until April, May or June of this year, according to @ray4tesla.

If the rumored MY orders of 100,000 in the first 10 hours are true then the reported 3000 per week production is very low or will ramp up very quickly. It'd take well into the third quarter to clear 100K orders at that rate. I figure over 7000 per week to clear by Q2.

 

[hobbes]

A Democrat sweep is obviously hated by the market as the QQQs continue to slide.

But, will it mean even more rocket fuel for TSLA and the renewable economy stocks?

Could we see the market take a dive, while the likes of TSLA and SEDG continue to grind higher?

Would be somewhat unprecedented I think.

Perhaps wishful thinking, but works for me.

I woke up to this on yahoo finance - searchng for reasons I turned to election results in Georgia and it seems a likely double Democratic win there seems to help TSLA as you speculated. Or is there some other likely reason?

 

[oakejs]

The AH move was from a Morgan Stanley price target increase from Adam Jonas to $810.

I woke up to this on yahoo finance - searchng for reasons I turned to election results in Georgia and it seems a likely double Democratic win there seems to help TSLA as you speculated. Or is there some other likely reason?

View attachment 624846

 

[Artful Dodger]

It sound good, but how do they ensure that an EV gets to park next to the street light, or what if the spot is already taken?
There is already an existing degree of anxiety involved in on street parking, now add to that not knowing if there will be an available charging parking spot.

I wouldn't want to be driving home with a low charge and having to deal with a crapshoot of whether or not there will be a charging spot available.

Maybe if every street parking spot had a charger it would work, but I think fast charging at convenient locations is the answer.

How many street lights are on your block? In your city? This is EXISTING infrastructure. It's FOOLISH not to use it. The End.

 

[chrsk]

Nasdaq tech futures are down 1,33%. This might ruin what could have been a great day.

 

[kanweg]

How many street lights are on your block? In your city? This is EXISTING infrastructure. It's FOOLISH not to use it. The End.

I charged my plug-in hybrid car for a while with a cable that was fine for ordinary use but clearly didn’t like the amperage drawn by the car. I had to replace it (the cable, not the car , by one that can do it to avoid risk of fire). I doubt that the cables for street lightning are over dimensioned to the extent that this really is a solution.

replacing the lamp fixtures with more energy efficient ones helps a tiny bit.

 

[Green Pete]

I woke up to this on yahoo finance - searchng for reasons I turned to election results in Georgia and it seems a likely double Democratic win there seems to help TSLA as you speculated. Or is there some other likely reason?

View attachment 624846

either raised price targets or estimated 29% margin on MIC mode y I think. Or both.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Maybe if every street parking spot had a charger it would work, but I think fast charging at convenient locations is the answer.

The ultimate answer is FSD.

“Tessie, drop me home then go charge. Be home by 5am.”

 

[Artful Dodger]

Early trading at Tradegate in Berlin:
611.9 Euro equals
754.58 United States Dollar

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Tesla Model Y Sells Out in China, Delivery Dates Now Show Sometime in Q2 - TeslaNorth.com

According to Tesla’s website, Model Y deliveries are now indicating sometime in Q2 of 2021. This would mean someone ordering today won’t get their Model Y in China until April, May or June of this year, according to @ray4tesla.

Anyone think Tesla won’t be over $800 by end of January?

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Expecting a Democratic balance of power (allowing for the 2x independent senators)

Dems now control the senate.
Excellent news for Tesla - EV tax credit to return.
In the short term, people won’t order or delay order pending policy implementation
That said, I believe it should be price limited or income tested

 

[wipster]

Dems now control the senate.
Excellent news for Tesla - EV tax credit to return.
In the short term, people won’t order or delay order pending policy implementation
That said, I believe it should be price limited or income tested

Just don't make it wealth limited... wouldn't want to exclude Teslanaires from any EV credits...

 

[Green Pete]

Just don't make it wealth limited... wouldn't want to exclude Teslanaires from any EV credits...

I disagree with that from a moral standpoint but I also think from a logical one making sure the program could be funded longer and support buyers less familiar with Tesla - eg don’t own the stock - would be better for the teslanaire’s future TSLA gains anyway.

 

[WarpedOne]

from a logical one making sure the program could be funded longer

Such programs are never limited by funds but always by policy.
Wealth limit transforms it from a technological incentive into a subsidy for the poor.

 

[Pezpunk]

if the goal of the EV credits really is to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, then there is no reason to exclude rich buyers or exclude luxury vehicles from those programs. those credits would still be performing their function of incentivizing -- and therefore increasing -- EV adoption rates. It's not like rich people aren't attracted to discounts. it's not like luxury vehicles pollute less than cheap cars. i dont see the upside of excluding them from this attempt at accelerating the transition.