Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

Volkswagen is in deep trouble and the CEO realizes it making a wake-up call. He claims it was better in 2018 when I wrote my 'wake-up call article that was heavily criticized by many and commented from Elon Musk

Herbert Diess VW Group CEO

“What really has changed -- and what I hadn’t expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry.”

“We must significantly improve our costs and work on efficiency, to gear the traditional auto business significantly more toward returns”

“Not everyone realizes the threat to our company to the same extent”

What he feels now is the pressure from WallStreet and investors with VW only worth a fraction of Tesla. That is more severe than most may believe and Diess talked about that in internal meetings already. VW investors on Top the Piech and Porsche families will be not happy and they are the ones who keep Diess in position.

 

[MC3OZ]

This has been done in parts of London already.
Charging power is around 5kw, it's surprisingly high.
1,300 street lights converted to EV chargers in London

Add in urban superchargers, paid destination chargers etc.
There are lots of options for urban Tesla drivers without a garage.

The $25k Tesla will probably have an LFP battery that is happy to be charged to 100% once or twice a week.

 

[MABMAB]

LOL, -1.4% futures doesn't happen "all the time". Start watching on a daily basis and you'll see.

It happened several times in the past month. Good enough for me to say it happens all the time.

 

[avoigt]

Volkswagen is in deep trouble and the CEO realizes it making a wake-up call. He claims it was better in 2018 when I wrote my 'wake-up call article that was heavily criticized by many and commented from Elon Musk

Herbert Diess VW Group CEO

“What really has changed -- and what I hadn’t expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry.”

“We must significantly improve our costs and work on efficiency, to gear the traditional auto business significantly more toward returns”

“Not everyone realizes the threat to our company to the same extent”

What he feels now is the pressure from Wall Street and investors with VW only worth a fraction of Tesla. That is more severe than most may believe and Diess talked about that in internal meetings already. VW investors on Top the Piech and Porsche families will be not happy and they are the ones who keep Diess in position.

It's one of the mistakes TESLAQ made to believe with old assets for an old technology you can compete against new assets and new technology.

The consequence is that incumbents have decreasing opportunity to finance the required transformation With higher costs investing in BEVs incumbents achieve a lower margin and investors pull their $ It's a vicious cycle with a predictable end

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[avoigt]

I will make an announcement on Twitter later today

 

[15Peter20]

UK new car registrations were just released, and... I guess you could say the Model 3 did alright.
View attachment 624863
That, along with the VW ID.3 (and possibly the Mini Electric) helped the overall BEV market share to reach a historic number this month.
View attachment 624864
Yes, BEVs held a higher market share than hybrids, plug-in hybrids and diesels (even including the so-called mild-hybrids).

The totals for 2020 look like this:
View attachment 624865

Almost a tripling of the BEV market share compared to the previous year!

2021 will be pretty good for EVs!

No demand.







Oops, looking at the wrong columns.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Austin gigafactory update:

- more clearance work
- more contractor trailers
- several more cranes
- rebar on 2nd floor of steel structure
- expansion of steel constructions,
- more concrete columns erected
- more footings being dug and filled with concrete
- geopier work starting again in south west corner.

 

[Huskyf]

I will make an announcement on Twitter later today

For ?

 

[Runarbt]

I will make an announcement on Twitter later today

OMG! You are sharing your billions with the rest of us on TMC?!

 

[jeewee3000]

For anyone who think the general public had finally understood Tesla, it appears not yet. Until then, we still have the information imbalance advantage, and there are still some rude awakening yet to happen to many people.

The general public indeed has no clue regarding Tesla. When speaking to family, friends and collegues, I understand they think of Tesla mainly as an expensive car brand.

Comparisons are made to Porsche, Jaguar, etc. General consensus I hear is "too expensive for what you get. Inferior build quality (American cars are generally regarded as cool but inferior over here, sorry guys) and impossible to service. And you can get stuck if you run out of battery charge!"

The fact that Tesla manufactures energy storage and solar is not as known. Mainly the people that know this have read this vaguely in a newspaper but think it is niche. They don't have a clue of Tesla's lead in this tech.

The growth story (for example Tesla's goal of 20 million cars/year by 2030) is either unknown or seen as a pipedream. "Volkswagen would never let that happen."

The quest for FSD on the other hand is generally known, but most only see FSD as something futuristic that won't happen for at least 20 years. "Maybe my children or their children will have self-driving cars."

So yes, the mainstream still hasn't woken up to Tesla, which is good news. Ask them about the stock price and they compare it to Bitcoin. "About to crash any moment."

However, I don't know if we can extrapolate the above to the general investment world (retail investors). Tesla is one of the most traded stocks in the US and Europe, which could mean that the growth story is known by a large portion of those that invest in stock (a small part of the general public).

Participation in the stock market varies greatly between countries. In US culture it is much more normal to own stock as a private individual than in Europe. In the US around 55% of Americans own stock, whilst in the EU 5 to 15% is more common (the greatest factor is risk aversion).

Given the above, I'm not sure if an awakening of the masses will have that great of an effect on the stock. Of course there will be more buying interest, but possibly the investing part of the population is already with the program. In other words: if someone that never invests suddenly is amazed by Tesla in say 2025, he or she will not start buying stock. This same person was wowed by Amazon or Apple years before and stayed out of the stock market.

So TL;DR: yes, the masses still have no clue regarding Tesla, but the masses awakening in the coming ten years will have less of impact on the SP if you ask me. The bull run since 2019 to now has uncoiled the spring greatly and now I expect more gradual appreciation as Tesla keeps increasing revenue. Huge upside lies in FSD of course, but the rest of the products would lead to less "sudden" increases in valuation.

Either way, I'm holding and keeping quiet. Then if that same co-worker or friend finally talks of Tesla and their amazing robotaxi's that provide a better ride than Uber at lower cost on his last city-trip, I can casually slip in that I've owned Tesla since 2014 or so.

 

[replicant]

Stellantis, the new company created with the merging of Peugeot-PSA and FCA has picked its ticker symbol.

It was designed to only go up. And to the moon. Can you guess it?

Wait for it...




"STLA"

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Stellantis, the new company created with the merging of Peugeot-PSA and FCA has picked its ticker symbol.

It was designed to only go up. And to the moon. Can you guess it?

Wait for it...




"STLA"

 

[15Peter20]

The general public indeed has no clue regarding Tesla. When speaking to family, friends and collegues, I understand they think of Tesla mainly as an expensive car brand.

Comparisons are made to Porsche, Jaguar, etc. General consensus I hear is "too expensive for what you get. Inferior build quality (American cars are generally regarded as cool but inferior over here, sorry guys) and impossible to service. And you can get stuck if you run out of battery charge!"

The fact that Tesla manufactures energy storage and solar is not as known. Mainly the people that know this have read this vaguely in a newspaper but think it is niche. They don't have a clue of Tesla's lead in this tech.

The growth story (for example Tesla's goal of 20 million cars/year by 2030) is either unknown or seen as a pipedream. "Volkswagen would never let that happen."

The quest for FSD on the other hand is generally known, but most only see FSD as something futuristic that won't happen for at least 20 years. "Maybe my children or their children will have self-driving cars."

So yes, the mainstream still hasn't woken up to Tesla, which is good news. Ask them about the stock price and they compare it to Bitcoin. "About to crash any moment."

However, I don't know if we can extrapolate the above to the general investment world (retail investors). Tesla is one of the most traded stocks in the US and Europe, which could mean that the growth story is known by a large portion of those that invest in stock (a small part of the general public).

Participation in the stock market varies greatly between countries. In US culture it is much more normal to own stock as a private individual than in Europe. In the US around 55% of Americans own stock, whilst in the EU 5 to 15% is more common (the greatest factor is risk aversion).
View attachment 624878 View attachment 624877


Given the above, I'm not sure if an awakening of the masses will have that great of an effect on the stock. Of course there will be more buying interest, but possibly the investing part of the population is already with the program. In other words: if someone that never invests suddenly is amazed by Tesla in say 2025, he or she will not start buying stock. This same person was wowed by Amazon or Apple years before and stayed out of the stock market.

So TL;DR: yes, the masses still have no clue regarding Tesla, but the masses awakening in the coming ten years will have less of impact on the SP if you ask me. The bull run since 2019 to now has uncoiled the spring greatly and now I expect more gradual appreciation as Tesla keeps increasing revenue. Huge upside lies in FSD of course, but the rest of the products would lead to less "sudden" increases in valuation.

Either way, I'm holding and keeping quiet. Then if that same co-worker or friend finally talks of Tesla and their amazing robotaxi's that provide a better ride than Uber at lower cost on his last city-trip, I can casually slip in that I've owned Tesla since 2014 or so.

Where did you find that table? I would be interested to see where the UK sits.

My gut feeling is we are around the 20% mark, but that most Brits are invested in fire and forget funds with a "decent" return (compared to a savings account!!!) of a few percent/annum.

If folk over here wake up to an awareness of the true size of invisible inflation they may be forced to become more active investors, or at least to invest in some tech funds (Baillie Gifford, SMT for eg, both of which own TSLA).

The effect won't be huge but better than nothing.

 

[davidlittle]

Similar here. I already have two EVs, convinced others to buy EVs, live in a zero carbon utility area, vegetarian, grow my own vegetables, no longer fly, recycle everything, buy used, etc. There’s not much else I can do so I’m planning to buy MY or M3 for family members, thereby incentivizing businesses that reduce oil consumption.

Similar here. Last year I decided to offer cheap lease deals on Tesla to all my wider family. To make them affordable I offered 6 year contract hire leases with 50% residual value at 1.5% interest. Obviously not profitable for me, but I've leased out 7 cars on that plan and expect to do more more as the remaining ICE cars come up for replacement.

Edit: typos

 

[strago13]

Exercised some of my S&P lotto Jan 15 570 calls, took forever to get through to the trading desk. Finally hit my share #! Guess its time to find a new milestone...

Thank you all for the help over the years, this forum is an amazing place filled with insightful posters!

 

[nativewolf]

@avoigt

I appreciate the work you're doing! Just a thanks from a country forester in Virginia. Not easy to get a read on the German auto industry from afar, other than to say that it seems moribund as the rest of the large automakers. The conceit might even exceed that of detroit which is bizarre.

Well anyway, thanks and I look forward to seeing your posts but I don't do or fatbook so if you could kindly also post on here I'll read it after work. Today we're doing a sustainable harvest in some old declining white oak forests, slightly high winds so we'll be working and leaving phones in pockets. Not much time to finish this before we have to do some spot planting.

Keep up the good work!

Volkswagen is in deep trouble and the CEO realizes it making a wake-up call. He claims it was better in 2018 when I wrote my 'wake-up call article that was heavily criticized by many and commented from Elon Musk

Herbert Diess VW Group CEO

“What really has changed -- and what I hadn’t expected to this extent -- is the view of capital markets on our industry.”

“We must significantly improve our costs and work on efficiency, to gear the traditional auto business significantly more toward returns”

“Not everyone realizes the threat to our company to the same extent”

What he feels now is the pressure from WallStreet and investors with VW only worth a fraction of Tesla. That is more severe than most may believe and Diess talked about that in internal meetings already. VW investors on Top the Piech and Porsche families will be not happy and they are the ones who keep Diess in position.

 

[Etna]

Stellantis, the new company created with the merging of Peugeot-PSA and FCA has picked its ticker symbol.

It was designed to only go up. And to the moon. Can you guess it?

Wait for it...

"STLA"

I thought you were joking and looked it up. This is actually true. https://live.euronext.com/en/ipo-showcase/stellantis-nv

Now their last hope to perform on the stock markets relies on dyslexics.

 

[Juhoru]

Stellantis, the new company created with the merging of Peugeot-PSA and FCA has picked its ticker symbol.

It was designed to only go up. And to the moon. Can you guess it?

Wait for it...




"STLA"

 

[SarahsDad]

I thought you were joking and looked it up. This is actually true. https://live.euronext.com/en/ipo-showcase/stellantis-nv

Now their last hope to perform on the stock markets relies on dyslexics.

Smart move. I can’t get rid of this on my feed because I mis-typed it once.

Tesla Hit a New High. No, It Was TLSA. Confused?

 

[HG Wells]

756.5 in premarket