Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Hit pieces coming out on CNBS tonight...new year...Lora K. does not change

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Remember how exploding Teslas and massive recalls did about nothing to Tesla stocks? Being in the S&P feels good is all I can say.

 

[MXWing]

Not Tesla related but we should all take a moment to look at what is going on with GME. We always complain about short raid or short manipulation. What is going on with GME is the opposite. Wallstreetbet is leading the charge by causing the short squeeze after noticing that it's one of the most shorted stock on the market. Squeeze was so relentless today that they halted trading.

We thought Tsla had the short burn of the century...lol well now there's exhibit B. Hopefully this teaches short sellers a lesson and think twice before praying on any companies in trouble.

(5) GME Thread: The Wreckoning : wallstreetbets (reddit.com)

They are going to do this again with BB next week.

Andrew Left/Citron really messes with the wrong companies.

 

[printf42]

Bay Area has only one inventory Model S left, no Model X.

Anyone seeing excessive inventory anywhere else? Probably they are waiting for return window to pass before announcing anything? Will we hear anything on the earnings call?

Now since inventory is gone, I don’t see any risk of Osborne.

Wonder when they would finally come out and fight the rumors:
“Sorry for the waiting lads, there is no refresh to be seen here, we are just merging the GA lines to make some floor room, and we have been taking our time, since it’s Q1, no demand anyways.”

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm not that smart but I feel like maybe there's a pattern emerging here.

 

[MC3OZ]

Anyone seeing excessive inventory anywhere else? Probably they are waiting for return window to pass before announcing anything? Will we hear anything on the earnings call?

The earnings update letter is a good opportunity to make an announcement, with specs and photos. They can follow it up with a YouTube video soon after. If Elon gets an earnings call question on the refresh, that is an opportunity to talk about how great the new versions are,

In the meantime, inventory is being cleared, and they are getting the kinks out of production.

 

[Singuy]

The earnings update letter is a good opportunity to make an announcement, with specs and photos. They can follow it up with a YouTube video soon after. If Elon gets an earnings call question on the refresh, that is an opportunity to talk about how great the new versions are,

In the meantime, inventory is being cleared, and they are getting the kinks out of production.

I don't know why they wouldn't do a little live stream event if the refresh is s/x 2.0. Announcing during an earnings call is kind of lame.

 

[t153]

Only 179 FSD model Ss and 92 model Xs nationwide left. I don't think we should concern ourselves with AP1&2 cars since they aren't comparable to new ones.

 

[WattsHappening]

I'm not that smart but I feel like maybe there's a pattern emerging here.

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Just as the stock market likes to climb a 'wall of worry,' TSLA feeds off these hit pieces.

 

[UncaNed]

Are Model X's being refreshed? Critical investing info keeping me awake... Therefore then, in the name of research, I just did this...

Performance model this time. Planning to hand down my 3-year old X to the less fortunate for a very reasonable price.

In fact, let this be my personal "Tip your cashier": those of us who've made a killing in TSLA ought to give back by frequently replacing our Tesla cars and pass down our old ones. Perhaps to your cashier, even!

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Jan 22, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Closes above 10-Day MA on Afternoon Move"

Pre-Market Volume: 520,191
Data as of 01/22/2021 09:30:00
SP: $834.31 -10.68 -1.26%

Traded: (Pre+Main Session) $15,587,699,906.10 ($15.59B)
Volume: (Pre+Main Session) 18,599,108
VWAP: (Pre+Main Session) $838.09

Close: $846.64 / VWAP: $838.09 = 101.02%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $820.00 (N/C from Thu)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.970460% (Jan 21)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $802.531B / $781.856B = 102.64%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11th (~$6.74B)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11th shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $748.67B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $469.98B

Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved on Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 44.9% (43th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 56.5% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.83% of Short Volume (49th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @Buckminster "I get knocked down, but I get up again..."

Comment: "...You are never gonna keep me down"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports



Cheers!

 

[FrANce]

Bay Area has only one inventory Model S left, no Model X.

Anyone seeing excessive inventory anywhere else? Probably they are waiting for return window to pass before announcing anything? Will we hear anything on the earnings call?

Now since inventory is gone, I don’t see any risk of Osborne.

Wonder when they would finally come out and fight the rumors:
“Sorry for the waiting lads, there is no refresh to be seen here, we are just merging the GA lines to make some floor room, and we have been taking our time, since it’s Q1, no demand anyways.”

Inventory in France:
0 Model S
5 Model X

 

[AZRI11]

Hit pieces coming out on CNBS tonight...new year...Lora K. does not change

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Looks like the fired employee has a new follower on Twitter
https://twitter.com/Louisbotelho17/status/1352876742843756544?s=19

 

[kanweg]

weekend OT: Ars technica reports on record number of satellites launched in one go by spaceX.

SpaceX to set record for most satellites launched on a single mission

 

[Artful Dodger]

10min till your footage in a tesmanian article.

Correct.

Tesla Model S/X Possible Refreshed BIWs Spotted at Fremont Factory

Cheers!

 

[PeterJA]

I'm not that smart but I feel like maybe there's a pattern emerging here.

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Yes, a flood of FUD hit Seeking Alpha this week, and not just there. Yahoo News teemed with hit pieces, including this boatload of BS:

Opinion: Why Tesla is not a safe stock for long-term investors

...One does not have to be an EV bear to have concerns about Tesla’s current valuation. Assuming a 22% compound annual growth rate in EV sales volumes over the next 10 years implies that Tesla is trading at more than 60x 2030 EPS....​

22% CAGR? Has the author noticed how many factories are ramping and opening in the next few months?

...Tesla’s first-mover status has theoretically bred an insurmountable lead in battery IP and supply chain, which should lead to lowest-cost production. Once lowest-cost production is established, Tesla will then reduce consumer prices and undercut rivals right as the S-curve of EV adoption kicks in....​

Theoretically? Has the author noticed that Tesla already did this?

...Tesla is expected to increase its sales from 500,000 cars per year today to close to 4 million cars by 2030, generating automobile gross margins that are 1% to 4% higher than its peers....
​

Well, you get the idea.

Behavioral psychologists have studied a phenomenon they call "the extinction burst." When a creature (hungry rat, screaming toddler, FUDing analyst) stops being rewarded for a behavior, the creature often intensifies it in a burst right before he gives up and the behavior stops (goes extinct). The rat beats the Jesus outta the lever that used to deliver food, the toddler throws a louder tantrum, and the analyst... hmm.

At some point, maybe when new gigafactories are complete and more announced, or when Tesla Energy sales skyrocket with no end in sight, or when Tesla Network launches without lidar, the FUDsters will notice that Tesla can't be stopped. Maybe we're starting to see that now.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tony is more often right than wrong but my hunch is 15% per year is conservative, especially for energy storage batteries.

No one will know exactly how fast battery costs will fall until 2030 (the end of his U-shaped projection) but I think my point was simply that he had already modeled in reasonable cost declines in batteries (not to mention solar and wind). So it's incorrect to say the U will be shifted to the left because costs are declining.

One could argue the costs of batteries will decline faster (as you have done) or that costs of solar and/or wind will not decline as fast as he projected and either of these will shift the U to the left. But if he underestimated the cost declines of all three technologies then the U curve could stay right where he put it. It's all just educated guessing but I can think of no one who has studied these cost declines more carefully or for a longer period of time than Tony Seba.

 

[Artful Dodger]

MM have the settings set at DIP_END=10:40;+/-15

DIP_END = IntraDayHigh/1.02

 

[insaneoctane]

After watching the drone footages over the last few days I can’t help wondering how much more efficient Fremont would be if it were a Gigafactory instead of a lot of buildings cobbled together with lots of empty space between them. Too many people hanging/loitering around, a lot of storage in the open air, transport with forklifts and carriages, lines of cars waiting with drivers standing around.

The good thing: the more Gigafactories get built, the less Fremont will weigh on the average efficiency. And hopefully the high volume production (Model Y and 3) will eventually fully move to Gigafactories, leaving Fremont for lower volume products.

Ultimately allowing Tesla to leave the high cost of living and heavy tax burden of California if necessary...

 

[EVortex]

I'm not that smart but I feel like maybe there's a pattern emerging here.

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Oh FUDge!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Safe to say this person flushed $320,000 down the toilet?

277,276 shares traded @ 4:03 pm, and 827,997 shares @ 4:05 pm:

That's 1.1M shares, which could easily have included the Contract holder excercising their Call options. With a Closing SP of $846.64 it would take about $3.36*100*400 = $134,400 extra to excercise the Contracts, but in return for the right to purchase 40K shares.

We don't know what the price per contract was, but I think those shares will be worth substantially more than what they payed by 6:00 pm ET on Wednesday...

Cheers!