Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

Of course the 4680 will blow current numbers out of the water.

Why?

 

[Singuy]

You have a point. The battery only adds more kwh per same weight. It doesn't actually improve efficiency except through wt savings. A 75kwh 4680 model 3 will result in a lighter car by a few hundred pounds which translate to less energy usage per 100miles. You're right that it wouldn't blow it out of the water..but still an improvement.

 

[Aeon]

So, I think I've busted Edmunds and their EV 'real world range' tester/author, Jonathan Elfalan. Here is the article from Tuesday claiming that Tesla's ranges are way over-rated by the EPA:

Edmunds Tested: Electric Car Range and Consumption | Edmunds

Well that looked pretty grim, but it got me remembering - didn't Edmunds do a comparison of 'real world range' between the Model Y and the Taycan back in November 2020? Why yes, yes they did, and it was done by the same author, Jonathan Elfalan. Here it is:

Tesla Model Y vs. Porsche Taycan: Testing EPA Range in the Real World | Edmunds

Hm, that's interesting - why is this article I remember from November 2020 now dated February 3rd, 2021? To the Wayback Machine!
Here is the archived version of the original article as posted on November 19, 2020:

Tesla Model Y vs. Porsche Taycan: Testing EPA Range in the Real World | Edmunds

What's this? It's different! The testing methodology and result for his Model Y range has been altered! Apparently Jonathan didn't know the original article would be archived..

In the original article from November (near the bottom):

Max Battery Usage
A key difference between Tesla and other companies is that it makes more of its battery available for use. Electric vehicle batteries that are constantly charged to their maximum capacity tend to degrade quicker over time, so manufacturers including Porsche place stricter limits on charging and use. Tesla leaves it up to the owner's discretion and simply recommends that the max battery charge only be used for longer trips. Otherwise, it says owners should use a charge of around 90% for daily use.

The 90% charge is what Edmunds followed for its Model Y test as, again, it represents how the majority of Tesla drivers will use their car. Extrapolated out, Edmunds estimates that charging the Y's battery to its maximum capacity would have added 25 miles to its as-tested range.


That section of the article has now been changed to:

Max Battery Usage
A key difference between most luxury and mainstream electric vehicles is that luxury brands typically make more of a car's battery available for use. Electric vehicle batteries that are constantly charged to their maximum capacity tend to degrade quicker over time, so some manufacturers place stricter limits on charging and use. Both Porsche and Tesla leave it up to the owner's discretion and simply recommend that the max battery charge only be used for longer trips. Otherwise, it says owners should use a charge of around 80% to 90% for daily use.

In the interest of aligning our range testing with the EPA's estimates, which take 100% of the nominal battery capacity into account, Edmunds charges all electric vehicles to their maximum allowable capacity. You can view the real-world range for every electric vehicle Edmunds has tested here. For vehicles that have a suggested lower daily charge such as the Taycan and Model Y, there is an asterisk next to the range figure. For others without an asterisk such as the Ford Mustang Mach-E, the max range can be used on a daily basis.


So in the original article he says he charged the Taycan to 100%, but the Model Y to only 90%, because that's what they suggest in the manual for normal use. Apparently on February 3rd he realized that this was an obviously unfair way to compare the vehicles and he didn't want to risk losing credibility before releasing his new article, so he went back in time and actually charged the Model Y to 100% for the test he did last November! Comparing the altered article to the original we see he has also made up new results for the Model Y range:

Original version:

• TLDR: The Taycan beat the Model Y by a whopping 70 miles in our testing, yet the EPA says it should lose by 88 miles. So what gives?

Altered version:

• TLDR: The Taycan beat the Model Y by 55 miles in our testing, yet the EPA says it should lose by 88 miles. So what gives?

Looks like he gave the Model Y an extra 15 miles of range. How generous of him! But, oh no, he screwed up. Looking further through the article we see:

Original version:

The 2020 Porsche Taycan 4S, an all-new electric luxury sport sedan, was way off from the EPA estimated 203 miles of range in Edmunds' real-world driving test. Edmunds observed 323 miles and saw a better energy consumption of 32.3 kilowatt-hours of electricity used every 100 miles of driving, versus the EPA's 49 kWh/100 miles.

In contrast, the 2020 Tesla Model Y Performance with 21-inch wheels — the brand's newest small SUV — did exceptionally well in the EPA's test, earning a range estimate of 291 miles and a power consumption rating of 28 kWh/100 miles using the maximum range mode. While Edmunds saw comparable efficiency in its real-world test, at 28.4 kWh/100 miles, the overall range result of 253 miles was slightly lower than the EPA estimate.

Altered version:

The 2020 Porsche Taycan 4S, an all-new electric luxury sport sedan, was way off from the EPA estimated 203 miles of range in Edmunds' real-world driving test. Edmunds observed 323 miles and saw a better energy consumption of 32.3 kilowatt-hours of electricity used every 100 miles of driving, versus the EPA's 49 kWh/100 miles.

In contrast, the 2020 Tesla Model Y Performance with 21-inch wheels — the brand's newest small SUV — did exceptionally well in the EPA's test, earning a range estimate of 291 miles and a power consumption rating of 28 kWh/100 miles using the maximum range mode. While Edmunds saw comparable efficiency in its real-world test, at 28.4 kWh/100 miles, the overall range result of 263 miles was lower than the EPA estimate.


So in one place in the article he gave the Model Y an extra 15 miles of range, but here he's only giving them an extra 10 miles. Woops! Interestingly, in the original article he even states that if he had charged the Model Y to 100% it probably would have given the Model Y an extra 25 miles of range (makes sense since that's about 10%). In the altered version he only gives them 10 or 15 miles depending on where you look, so he is clearly biased against Tesla and wants to give them as little range as possible in his new made up numbers.

So unless I'm missing something, he's altered his methodology for a past range test and made up new numbers go with it. This is the same guy running these new tests, where he could be accelerating and braking in different ways for the different test vehicles, or just be making up numbers entirely.

By the way February 4th, the day he altered that old article? That was the day before all that unusual put option activity on Friday February 5th. He then released his new article on Tuesday. Someone made a lot of money on those puts!

Rob Maurer (Tesla Daily) just asked me via Twitter DM to pass this along to you Mike:

https://twitter.com/edmunds/status/1359950053184397314?s=20

I guess it's worth to have it here in the public conversation, instead of a direct message to Mike.

 

[H Mak]

So typically friday is my buying day.. the prices today look so enticing.. Anyone still buying or just holding on?

I'm a buyer if the price starts with a 7

 

[chronoreverse]

Edmunds isn't interested in a true scientific test. They can't even be arsed to keep to the same speeds between vehicles except for "within 5mph of the speed limit". They make the excuse that it's more realistic than the EPA but only succeed in generating test results that are useless for anything other than clickbait headlines.

I won't share my opinion as to whether that's a "happy coincidence".

 

[johnm6875]

EPA = Science - to meet regulatory requirements

Edmunds = Entertainment - to make a buck

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Edmunds isn't interested in a true scientific test. They can't even be arsed to keep to the same speeds between vehicles except for "within 5mph of the speed limit". They make the excuse that it's more realistic than the EPA but only succeed in generating test results that are useless for anything other than clickbait headlines.

I won't share my opinion as to whether that's a "happy coincidence".

This is correct.

Bjorn does range tests right though. I would trust his over almost anyone else.

 

[jw934]

#1609 - Elon Musk - The Joe Rogan Experience

So Elon was on Joe for episode #1169 two years ago, and now on episode #1609? I wonder when will he next appear?

 

[Aeon]

It's free to sign up, I just did. Only downside is you can't play it back at faster speed.

You might like this if you happen to be a Chrome user.
Video Speed Controller

(This improved my life by an unexpected amount. It also makes me think that most people I meet in the real world speak and live in slowmotion. I can digest many videos at 1.8x to 2.3x....)
(Bonus tip: bind a button to 16x to "skip" ads ;-) )

 

[mongo]

You have a point. The battery only adds more kwh per same weight. It doesn't actually improve efficiency except through wt savings. A 75kwh 4680 model 3 will result in a lighter car by a few hundred pounds which translate to less energy usage per 100miles. You're right that it wouldn't blow it out of the water..but still an improvement.

If they reduce the internal resistance of the pack, they improve efficiency (both driving and charging).
If they reduce the amount of energy needed to cool the pack, they improve efficiency,
The tabless design does both of these.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m VERY surprised by that table. With such a head start in the EV field and all the Tesla drivetrain tech, they are not impressing in the kW/100 mi column. I thought Tesla would have a bigger lead here for years...did anyone else expect Tesla to dominate more here?

It appears you are taking Edmunds test methodology as being accurate and meaningful.

 

[Paracelsus]

Nobody really knows, but TSLA has actually held up well today. I'm hoping it goes higher when the market improves, and that my sold Puts will be safer....

View attachment 635929

 

[Spacep0d]

It's free to sign up, I just did. Only downside is you can't play it back at faster speed.

I'm guessing Spotify can play tracks from oldest to newest, something Apple hasn't been able to accomplish for years with iTunes.

 

[LN1_Casey]

This is correct.

Bjorn does range tests right though. I would trust his over almost anyone else.

Car wow also does a pretty decent job of being consistent. Drives 5 EV cars the same day, same route, as a group, and keeps things like AC the same between them, and then clock when the vehicle drops out of the 'race' due to a low battery.

 

[wipster]

Imagine how many robots will be unnecessary if Tesla casts an entire car frame as a single piece, which seems to be their goal, judging from Tesla patents and Elon's tweets.

This is the kind of innovation that no one is prepared for -- not competitors or analysts or media -- except HODLers.

The machine that builds the "world car" machine is being designed now, in secret.

I'm more than a bit ignorant on this, but how will the cast front and rear ends affect safety, specifically collapsibility? It almost seems like it would make them too strong to collapse and absorb big hits... what do y'all think?

 

[Cobos]

Car wow also does a pretty decent job of being consistent. Drives 5 EV cars the same day, same route, as a group, and keeps things like AC the same between them, and then clock when the vehicle drops out of the 'race' due to a low battery.

I can add that the Norwegian version of AAA, NAF, also has decent range tests. Typically done the same way that carwow does them. They also got winter and summer tests for most of the cars.
I'm not sure if it's paywalled but try this link: Her er de største rekkevidde-vinnerne
Scroll down to the table and look for sommer = summer and vinter=winter that shows range in km on their tests.

 

[Krugerrand]

Anyone going to summarize the Rogan episode? You know the important stuff; did he inhale, did they bust open a bottle of Teslaquila or stick to whiskey, is the SP too high, should people only buy Teslas built on Thursdays —

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm more than a bit ignorant on this, but how will the cast front and rear ends affect safety, specifically collapsibility? It almost seems like it would make them too strong to collapse and absorb big hits... what do y'all think?

They can build in points that collapse upon a certain amount of impact except obviously around the battery pack.

 

[Krugerrand]

FYI, buying into close to finish strong and green.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So typically friday is my buying day.. the prices today look so enticing.. Anyone still buying or just holding on?

I will be buying as soon as my damn transfer clears the bank! By then the SP will probably be $950 knowing my luck. LOL!

Dan