Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Really? I am totally comfortable with my investment and I think it has returned substantial profit, and will continue to do so. (Now you might not be comfortable with my investment, but that is a whole different issue.)

I would question how comfortable you felt previously about your investment.

 

[Krugerrand]

a broken clock is right twice a day

Seems your clock has a face of not 12 numbers but a trillion and it stopped one number before the point you started panicking.

 

[asburgers]

I saw the 2008 drop coming well in advanced, sold most of my stocks, but I didn't see the bottom or how fast the market would recover. I'm not the richest person on earth. Knowing the right time to sell is only half of the equation.

I went a large proportion cash in Dec, missed most of the Jan run-up, re-invested a small portion in Jan, getting the Feb diarrhea.

 

[bkp_duke]

From your favourite r/wsb intelligence officer:

Soon may the Tendieman come
To send our rocket into the sun
One day when the trading is done
We'll take our gains and go...

If we drop today, we're coming for YOU.

NO POETRY - BAD THINGS HAPPEN TO THE STOCK!

 

[lafrisbee]

8 people marked this funny. Funny how? You don’t believe there will be market crash? My opinion is that this is not nice conversation culture.

You ended with:
"Of course it is only possible to know afterwards "

That is funny.

 

[Krugerrand]

arrg. What to do about five June 18 300 strike options acquired last February...

I want to play them so that I can accumulate as many shares as possible, but it feels like I'm playing a game of chicken with a rabid antelope festooned with razor blades.

Put down the knife and grab the rocket launcher.

 

[traxila]

I saw the 2008 drop coming well in advanced, sold most of my stocks, but I didn't see the bottom or how fast the market would recover. I'm not the richest person on earth. Knowing the right time to sell is only half of the equation.

With my relatively meager investments at the time was buying all the way down and then grew panicked. Certain the market was truly stuffed and we were headed for a Great Depression style 90% percent down and wait twenty years to recover market, I literally sold on the very last down day. The next day the market started to rocket up and never looked back.

Lesson?

At some point deal with the fact that if the financial markets are really destroyed, where does it matter where your fiat money was at that point, in the market or in your mattress? If you invest in a market crisis, you should almost always be prepared to let it ride....

 

[WarpedOne]

As far as options go there is no real support for this week or net week. Just not enough purchased on either side. As the price has been dropping THEY are just selling more Calls and lower and lower strikes and more Puts at lower and lower strikes. It's all great money for them. If the price goes back up THEY really don't care. They just acquired a huge amount of shares at $750. It would be quite a profit to sell the at 770 on up when the Calls come do this Friday.

Top of the chart below if 6000 volume. You can see they are selling Calls to back up the Puts all the way down to 770 as of last Friday.
If anything the only resistance I see developing is we won't go above 800 but even that is weak resistance. 700 SEEMS like the strongest support from an options point of view.

With so few options this week Max Pain is pointless to look at.
View attachment 638845

Sudre, thank you.

I needed some cash before the end of this month and was looking for exact selling time.
Your post made me stop waiting for reversal and I gave a sell order at Monday's market open.
It so happened the price at open was $761 and market decided to spare me the remorse.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

arrg. What to do about five June 18 300 strike options acquired last February...

I want to play them so that I can accumulate as many shares as possible, but it feels like I'm playing a game of chicken with a rabid antelope festooned with razor blades.

Easy. Roll them forward into the next DITM LEAP. DITM options should have minimal time value.

 

[asburgers]

If we drop today, we're coming for YOU.

NO POETRY - BAD THINGS HAPPEN TO THE STOCK!

But sir, I do not think that you are aware of the correlation of sea shanty prevalence to stock price.

 

[buttershrimp]

Something tells me this isn’t going to be a typical Friday

 

[Pezpunk]

I saw the 2008 drop coming well in advanced, sold most of my stocks, but I didn't see the bottom or how fast the market would recover. I'm not the richest person on earth. Knowing the right time to sell is only half of the equation.

This story may seem off topic, but i think it is useful context for a discussion on Tesla investment strategy:

As someone who was both selling and buying a home in 2006/2007, holy moly that whole process was *replete* with red flags. Anyone purchasing a home in that era was told loud and clear that that it was all a house of cards teetering on the verge of collapse. It's hard to hear what you don't want to hear, though, especially when you have a financial stake in not hearing it, either because of your job, or your investment, or your dream of owning a home, for example.

I won't name every indicator here, but the process of buying the home and securing the loan were both shady as hell. And this was for a brand new home built by a large, reputable manufacturer. Not some lone slimy realtor or flipper. The process of being allowed the privilege of buying one of their million-dollar homes required you to attend a lottery in-person. My wife and I gathered there for the drawing (that we still suspect was rigged) and in the process of making conversation with the other prospective buyers, learned that, without exaggeration, 85% of the applicants were never going to live in the home, they were merely purchasing to sit on this brand new home for a month or two and then flip it for profit. What happens if the market simply levels off? 85% of the perceived demand dries up over night.

Then there was the securing of the loan. Contingent on being allowed to purchase from this builder, you were forced to use their mortgage company (i can't believe that's legal!). This mortgage company encouraged me to lie about my income, showed no interest in verifying my employment beyond a quick phone call to my boss verifying that i worked there, and worked their asses off pushing balloon mortgages and other exotic rip-off lending products on us. I had to threaten to scuttle the whole deal and really turn my mean face on to get them to offer me a fixed rate mortgage without penalties for early payoff (again how is that legal?), and even then it was not a remotely competitive rate. (I didn't care, because by that point i was just going to refinance the minute the papers were signed).

Anyway, the whole process was clearly broken and unhealthy. I can't say I made any shrewd investment choices with that knowledge, but since we were just buying the home to live in, the eminent crash and eventual recovery neither helped nor hurt us financially, luckily. I feel for the thousands and thousands who did get royally screwed over, though.

Anyway, I offer this as examples of the kind of things to look out for when a bubble is about to pop. Personally, i'm not seeing this kind of shady dealing with Tesla stock currently. I think their future is insanely bright long-term. I think the company is a model of sustainable business, and its problems are the best kind: external and short-term.

As for other stocks, and life in general ... well, my advice is to keep your ears open for things you don't want to hear.

 

[Harrito]

Small data point from Finland regarding MIC Model 3 LFP battery cold weather performance: Owners are reporting significantly better charging speeds after the latest OTA software update

 

[StealthP3D]

a broken clock is right twice a day

There is a big difference between showing the correct time and being "right".

 

[asburgers]

If you guys are interested in macro economics, the Macro Voices podcast was pretty good yesterday.

Bloomberg is making it clear today that it's fears of real returns more inflation fears...which to me is related???

From: Welcome to Macro Voices

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Something tells me this isn’t going to be a typical Friday

It is with 100% certainty going to be a typical Friday.

 

[StealthP3D]

anyone explain why futures just took a complete 180?

and "10 year yeilds dropping" isn't the answer im looking for. Why did those drop

Beware of weak turnarounds.

 

[lafrisbee]

If you take a peak right now on
Stock Option Max Pain
The volume chart is not being shown...or at least the data isn't.
It is flatlined.
But looking at the other two charts I have deduced that closing today will be exactly somewhat near to about 724.44

 

[Cosmacelf]

This story may seem off topic, but i think it is useful context for a discussion on Tesla investment strategy:

As someone who was both selling and buying a home in 2006/2007, holy moly that whole process was *replete* with red flags. Anyone purchasing a home in that era was told loud and clear that that it was all a house of cards teetering on the verge of collapse. It's hard to hear what you don't want to hear, though, especially when you have a financial stake in not hearing it, either because of your job, or your investment, or your dream of owning a home, for example.

I won't name every indicator here, but process of buying the home and securing the loan were both shady as hell. And this was for a brand new home built by a large, reputable manufacturer. Not some lone slimy realtor or flipper. The process of being allowed the privilege of buying one of their million-dollar homes required you to attend a lottery in-person. My wife and I gathered there for the drawing (that we still suspect was rigged) and in the process of making conversation with the other prospective buyers, learned that, without exaggeration, 85% of the applicants were never going to live in the home, they were merely purchasing to sit on this brand new home for a month or two and then flip it for profit. What happens if the market simply levels off? 85% of the perceived demand dries up over night.

Then there was the securing of the loan. Contingent on being allowed to purchase from this builder, you were forced to use their mortgage company (i can't believe that's legal!). This mortgage company encouraged me to lie about my income, showed no interest in verifying my employment beyond a quick phone call to my boss verifying that i worked there, and worked their asses off pushing balloon mortgages and other exotic rip-off lending products on us. I had to threaten to scuttle the whole deal and really turn my mean face on to get them to offer me a fixed rate mortgage without penalties for early payoff (again how is that legal?!?!), and even then it was not a remotely competitive rate. (I didn't care, because i was just going to refinance the minute the papers were signed).

Anyway, the whole process was clearly broken and unhealthy. I can't say I made any shrewd investment choices with that knowledge, but since we were just buying the home to live in, the eminent crash and eventual recovery neither helped nor hurt us financially, luckily. I feel for the thousands and thousands who did get royally screwed over, though.

Anyway, I offer this as examples of the kind of things to look out for when a bubble is about to pop. Personally, i'm not seeing this kind of shady dealing with Tesla stock currently. I think their future is insanely bright long-term. I think the company is a model of sustainable business, and its problems are the best kind: external and short-term.

As for other stocks, and life in general ... well, my advice is to keep your ears open for things you don't want to hear.

Ominously, the real estate market right now has started to get crazy again. This time it isn’t due to easy loan money, just easy money in general from stimulus and low interest rates, I think. When inflation finally hits, and the fed acts, the effect on all the markets will be brutal.

Stories like this are occurring throughout the US right now:

Moore's Real Estate Review: Buyers, Read This:  Multiple Offer Madness

 

[UkNorthampton]

I saw the 2008 drop coming well in advanced, sold most of my stocks, but I didn't see the bottom or how fast the market would recover. I'm not the richest person on earth. Knowing the right time to sell is only half of the equation.

Peter Lynch once said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”