Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

QQQ futures looking very strong. These hedge fund clowns can no longer charge fees to pick stocks, the world now knows they're worse than an index funds. So what do they do to make money? Create volatility and constant rotations. That way they can frontrun a bit and charge clients to come along for the ride.

We need serious market and regulatory reforms up in this mf!

The last time futes were strong last week, we had the first of what ended up being 5 days in a row of -5%.

At this point, I'll believe in the reversal when I see it and not one moment before. I have no options in play right now at all, I'll wait for convincing signs of reversal before I move in.

Also did this forum update also reset all of our reaction scores? I had thousands of likes....now I have 3.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

People will realize soon enough that tech is where you will get the most returns on your $$. This happened last year as well, when people rotated out of tech and into the cyclicals...it always happens and will happen again. However, after last years rotation, we all know what happened to the NASDAQ. History will repeat itself in due time....it always does eventually.

 

[Big Time]

🖐
Gosh I missed you guys. Today was rough but ignored the noise, watched Cathie, bought 1K of Doge coin and said to hell with all of the bull.

best part of the week is Emojis on this forum.
Big Fun

 

[Ameliorate]

Watch this tech analysis at this time stamp for TSLA:

Then start it over and watch it for the QQQ analysis. While no one can predict the future, it is very telling for the resistance lines.

For instance: Tomorrow, look for TSLA to test 518, if it bounces and goes higher, look for it to test 618 and then 685. I'm hoping for a bull market and for it to settle around 618. Oh boy if it goes below 518 and I'll be a very sad camper.

I'm looking forward to this, but I'm sure it is HODL, spring is coming!

Yeah seems like decent TA. Just wanted to point out he said TSLA could test 557 then 510 as resistance so bit more resistance on the way down.

 

[Cobbler]

Didn't some Tesla convertible notes expire past days and were sold immediately on the market?
Causing Tesla to have less debt?

 

[EVWatcher]

Didn't some Tesla convertible notes expire past days and were sold immediately on the market?
Causing Tesla to have less debt?

These?

Tesla Announces $1.6 Billion Convertible Notes Offering | Tesla

www.tesla.com

 

[CorneliusXX]

i say this with all due respect, but will people please stop coming on the forum reminding us how far Tesla has come this past year? It’s reminding me of my mom trying to cheer me up after getting beat up in middle school.... “now now son, I know you got punched in the face and that you were given a power wedgie I’m front of the school.... but remember sweetheart.... one year ago? Remember how many times you got punched last year? Remember all swirlies in the toilet? And all times the kids took your money and smashed your remote control car? Look how far you’ve come sweetheart....”. Good grief !

I know this is tongue in cheek, but some perspective is healthy to counter the "stock can never drop" crowd who act as if they've been personally attacked when it is suggested that there is the potential for the price to drop.

It is possible that you'll get another wedgie tomorrow and the day after - but in the long run your undies will be removed from your butt crack.

 

[Singuy]

Yeah seems like decent TA. Just wanted to point out he said TSLA could test 557 then 510 as resistance so bit more resistance on the way down.

557 was tested AH today and got rejected, stock went higher to 667. Tomorrow's macro is pretty strong so this is the third wave of the up swing. Everything seems to be riding on tomorrow.

 

[Tslynk67]

Your broker has to have you authorized (basically you have to ask for it) and you then enter an extended hours order. Works from 7am to 8pm.

Make sure it is a limit order (most brokers I know will not allow market). The spreads in extended hours can be LARGE.

It varies by broker, some don't allow it at all. In my case I can pre-market trade (limit only) from 14:00-15:15 and AH 23:15-00:30 (CET), all unfulfilled orders are auto-cancelled

 

[UncaNed]

...FSD will destroy as a plausible argument the FUD about competition. Only the totally irrational will try to argue that competition has caught up when Tesla has an obviously game-changing technology that no one else has...

Especially on the day the NHTSA publishes the illustration showing the dramatic, unprecedented drop in injuries and fatalities courtesy of Tesla's FSD.

 

[cyclingthealps]

I like the new layout!
Sorry, a bit late but the next update is not far away then.

Short interest decreased from the period 01/31/2021 (share price $794) to 02/12/2021 (share price $811).
The short amount also decreased in this period.
The public float increased again as it did in the last period.

• Shares shorted from 52.380.000 to 47.690.000,00
• Float shorted from 6,82% to 6,20%, looks like a big step but public float increased
• Amount shorted from $41.565.101.400,00to $38.676.590.000,00
• Public float from 767.840.000 to 769.330.000

The Amount shorted in 2021 so far is pretty consistent at the moment and pretty high.
Still slowly accumulating more shares as always.

 

[RobStark]

Honda Brings Level 3 Driver-Assist Tech to Legend Flagship Sedan in Japan

The Honda Legend's Level 3 hands-free driver-assistance system allows for (occasional) distractions.

www.automobilemag.com

A bit more information on the Japanese market Honda Legend limited edition of 100 units with Level 3 autonomy.

The list price is $102k equivalent. Lease only, you can not buy the cars. The autonomous hardware is said to cost 10s of thousands of dollars. The base Legend cost equivalent to $66,440.

 

[CyberDutchie]

557 was tested AH today and got rejected, stock went higher to 667. Tomorrow's macro is pretty strong so this is the third wave of the up swing. Everything seems to be riding on tomorrow.

Wishful thinking or typo—you meant to say stock went higher to 567

 

[mrdoubleb]

Wow. Like trying on a fresh pair of sneakers for the first time! Welcome back everyone!

So now, based on the data known so far, this is what we have for January + February:
- Europe: +19,5% YoY; +5% compared to the first two months of Q4 2020
- China: not sure YoY makes sense due to Covid hitting China in February last year, but, for the record, we are at 448% of 2020. Compared to Q4 2020, we are roughly even (Q4 33.749 vs. Q1 33.802) for the first two months, but it is uncertain whether this includes S/X.

In any case, so far the data supports a very strong Q1. For sure, this will be the strongest Q1 ever. The biggest Q1 so far was last year (despite everything) with 88.496 cars delivered. So far we are at 41k cars just with Europe and China. There is a good chance we could have already hit 75-80k with the RoW and March is yet to come.

 

[EVMeister]

So now, based on the data known so far, this is what we have for January + February:
- Europe: +19,5% YoY; +5% compared to the first two months of Q4 2020
- China: not sure YoY makes sense due to Covid hitting China in February last year, but, for the record, we are at 448% of 2020. Compared to Q4 2020, we are roughly even (Q4 33.749 vs. Q1 33.802) for the first two months, but it is uncertain whether this includes S/X.

In any case, so far the data supports a very strong Q1. For sure, this will be the strongest Q1 ever. The biggest Q1 so far was last year (despite everything) with 88.496 cars delivered. So far we are at 41k cars just with Europe and China. There is a good chance we could have already hit 75-80k with the RoW and March is yet to come.

Things like this are exactly what people should bear in mind when they look at that red stock ticker and feel bad.

 

[lascavarian]

Hi, can you explain why stock market is spooked by 1.6% 10yr bond, is it 1.6% APR? Companies borrow money for much lower rate, if their stock price go up a minimum of 10% is it a bargain compared to 1.6% APR 10yr bond? Yellen and Powell already said inflation is not a concern, so WHY stock market sell off?

There are comments made suggesting it is the rate of the change not the degree of the change.

 

[Norwalk79]

So this has been quite irrational in my opinion. Over the past two months or so, the market priced in about 2 rate hikes within the next year into the bond markets. This fear led to two things: fear of inflation and increased borrowing rates for companies. Despite Chair Powell and Tres Sec Yellen repeatedly affirming the opposite. There has been criticism that Powell has been too reactive, and lenient in his message. Had he been more forceful, some shorts may have abandoned their position. However, I can't fault him as he is simply doing his job mechanically.

The theory that growth companies (with higher P/E multiples vs value companies) are more sensitive to higher rates holds true on paper. However, I would be hard pressed to see analysts adjusting their discount rate by 0.50% and resulting in 30% sell-offs. Cathie said that companies would use 3-5% to discount (I've worked at ones that used 7%), so 1.6% vs 1.3% doesn't even begin to move the needle. Even increased lending rates don't begin to explain it (especially for companies with relatively low debt like Tesla). If I recall correctly, Morgan Stanley used an 8% WACC for evaluating Tesla.

Now, there is a massive short position on Treasuries and there is a theory that this is fall out from the Bank of New Zealand and Australia's yield curve control projects. I'm not too familiar with NZ but I did see that Australia had fixed their 3 yr rate down to promote lending. Bond traders who missed out on the NZ and AUS trades flocked to short the US Treasury. Just a theory though. I'm still learning about the bond world.

Yes - there is a sector rotation into value going on, but the sell off in growth smells like a whole lot of FUD. Like Auntie Cathie said today, she thinks there is a lot of paralysis in the markets.

Thanks for your lengthy answer. Here is my guess: The active fund managers have the 100 yr old mentality of the 100 yr old market with 100 yr old valuation method of P/E P/S. They think Nasdaq went too high so the shorts take profit on Apple (#2 shorted) and FAAMG. Only Tesla (#1 shorted) and EV stocks suffer the most damage. Here is what I post on SeekingAlpha.com:
As the oil price surges to $70/barrel, it reminds how the world has been screwed more than 100 yrs being relied on gasoline for the most oil consumption by cars. Active fund managers should remember Tesla is the leader in all of the below field

The more than 100 yr old US Constitution failed to remove/convict the big lie thug. The same old stock market uses the same outdated stock trading and valuation for 100 yrs.

This time is the beginning of the end of 100 yr old oil industries/nations/ICE cars manufacturers and the start of the new fields of Clean and renewable Energy/Storage, Electric Vehicles, FSD subscription and Robotaxis/delivery.

Tesla is the most advanced Leader in all of the above fields and will become the next Amazon, Apple and Google, has the most enemy, therefore, China, VW and oil companies/industry/nations have started to give one final push to kill before Tesla crush competition with its lowest price highest value $25K model 2 by the end this year 2021 together with Berlin Giga already has 8 Giga Press for model 3 and Y + ready to make new 4680 battery with $1B incentive, 2,500 Semi trucks in Texas, FSD and insurance started by 2nd Quarter of this year. The Solar Energy Storage of Tesla Power Walls and MegaWatts will advance along the way since Texas lost power 4 days in freezing temp, rolling shutdown in California and NorthEastern states losing power during heavy snow periods.

 

[lascavarian]

Premarket looks a little reboundy.

eTrade misvalued Tesla at the close Monday with a closing price of 600ish. Weird. Haven’t seen that since the S&P inclusion.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Wow. Like trying on a fresh pair of sneakers for the first time! Welcome back everyone!

So now, based on the data known so far, this is what we have for January + February:
- Europe: +19,5% YoY; +5% compared to the first two months of Q4 2020
- China: not sure YoY makes sense due to Covid hitting China in February last year, but, for the record, we are at 448% of 2020. Compared to Q4 2020, we are roughly even (Q4 33.749 vs. Q1 33.802) for the first two months, but it is uncertain whether this includes S/X.

In any case, so far the data supports a very strong Q1. For sure, this will be the strongest Q1 ever. The biggest Q1 so far was last year (despite everything) with 88.496 cars delivered. So far we are at 41k cars just with Europe and China. There is a good chance we could have already hit 75-80k with the RoW and March is yet to come.

Numbers below are back of the envelope:

While I'm very much excited about Q1 volume increases, partially offsetting these higher raw unit volumes this quarter will be the very limited S/X sales, which generated c.$0.9b in revenues in Q1 2020, or around 15% of Tesla's automotive revenues - and presumably at high margins.

Tesla would need to sell around 20k additional 3/Ys (assuming a $45k ASP) to offset reduced S/X revenues, and if gross margin on the S/X was (e.g. 20%) higher than 3/Y then unit sales of 3/Y would need to increase by an additional 20% for net income to remain flat.

The above will be overstated a bit because Tesla cleared out S/X inventory in January and should start some S/X deliveries before the end of this quarter - but I don't know what those volumes will amount to.

Anyway, the point of this post is not to necessarily expect record P&L in Q1 even if deliveries set a new record.

 

[Norwalk79]

Premarket looks a little reboundy.

eTrade misvalued Tesla at the close Monday with a closing price of 600ish. Weird. Haven’t seen that since the S&P inclusion.

Pre-market usually is shorts' covering. Nasdaq future is +250pt 2% is the most high future due to down -311pt - 2.4% yesterday. Hope Tesla recover above $611 today in good volume due to shorts' cover. If it continues to advance on Wed Mar 10th, then it is a shorts squeeze.