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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If anyone is still doubting VW was fudging their sales in Q4 take a look at this tweet from Karen.

A VW fan claimed on Twitter that they are holding back deliveries because a software update is not ready and the ID vehicles can't yet do OTA updates. They are supposed to restart deliveries when the update has been done using a physical connection. Don't know if this is accurate or not.
 
IF this chip thing is real we'd have heard much more noise about factory shutdowns.
To be clear, I'm playing devil's advocate and is likely water under the bridge. Maybe we saw the impact with those couple days shutdown (which could have been 2 weeks but wasn't... maybe bc they found a suitable replacement device). I do not doubt the chip shortage affected their sourcing and most can find an equivalent component, but not motion sensors so easily, maybe some others IDK. Likely, they've had their supply locked in already, and I doubt anyone would risk "shorting" Tesla. Just a bit cautious going into Q1 P&D.
 
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I think we will consolidate a bit here. The good thing is yields have kind of settled for now. The biggest stock I am watching is AAPL which has remained stuck under 120. I think AAPL moving higher will lead the next charge. Last quarter was hurtful for mega cap in a particular way that their big backers sold off (buffet for aapl and Ron baron & BG for tesla). So for now I guess it is consolidation before we move up.
Disclaimer: I am not a technical analyst and I am using technical terms like “consolidation” mostly in a qualitative way.
Apple is #2 shorted stock second to #1 Tesla
 
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Nonetheless there's a non-zero effort and cost associated with taking 1000's of individual cells and assimilating them in to what can be thought of as a "pack": physically assembly, electrical connections, thermal management, BMS installation, etc...

While the "container" for the above may be a honeycomb chassis that then is banded as part a structural member rather than a set of modules in a casing, all of the above will be necessary to go from raw cells to a "car ready" assembly. Thus "pack" cost would still be more than just raw cell cost. It wouldn't surprise me if Tesla will lower the "pack" portion of the cost as a result of the architectural change, however...

Great points. I think the nub of the issue will be if the casting tech efficiencies will more than compensate for the additional assembly costs. Probably be a learning curve involved. There are advantages to being able to test the "pack" prior to assembly and this probably gets replaced with something in the assembly process.

Whoever can bring this process into line production first has a moat-like advantage IMO. This looks to be clearly Tesla given their huge advantages from vertical integration and in-house development. It will be amazing to see how these changes come together in the Cybertruck IMO.
 
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I dated a woman in 1989 that had one of the first cellphones I can recall.

Oh that was you?

Screen-shot-2011-02-24-at-4.04.16-PM110224212955.jpg
 
I think we will consolidate a bit here. The good thing is yields have kind of settled for now. The biggest stock I am watching is AAPL which has remained stuck under 120. I think AAPL moving higher will lead the next charge. Last quarter was hurtful for mega cap in a particular way that their big backers sold off (buffet for aapl and Ron baron & BG for tesla). So for now I guess it is consolidation before we move up.
Disclaimer: I am not a technical analyst and I am using technical terms like “consolidation” mostly in a qualitative way.
Apple is #2 shorted stock behind #1 Tesla. Tesla now is the Leader for this Nasdaq 2021 bull run to be verified by tomorrow. Boeing leads Dow Jones 2021 bull run successfully today. The 100 yr old IBD still uses the 4th follow-thru day is an outdated method. What main event triggered a bull run has to be identified: this is the big $1.9T Covid-10 help package
 
Dear Tesla comrades:
Last ingredient of Tesla business has started: The FSD subscription and Robotaxis have started with this fresh news: Rideshare vehicle provider EVmo Inc., formerly known as YayYo Inc. , said Wednesday that its subsidiary Rideshare Car Rentals LLC is taking part in a fleet acquisition of Tesla Inc. vehicles .

In a not crowded suburban area, the FSD level 5 can be operated without paying a person for supervision: a true robotaxis. In a crowded area of San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York you can just hire a part-time high school/college student to serve as supervision. So Tesla FSD SW $1.5B revenues will be realized as Munster said.

Apple is #2 shorted stock behind #1 Tesla ( leader of EV, FSD/robotaxis, EV battery, Clean Energy and Power Storage). Tesla now is the Leader for this Nasdaq 2021 bull run to be verified by tomorrow. Boeing leads Dow Jones 2021 bull run successfully today. The 100 yr old IBD still uses the 4th follow-thru day is an outdated method. What main event triggered a bull run has to be identified: this is the big $1.9T Covid-10 help package to be signed tomorrow

I only need a 3rd day to identify the beginning of a bull run in this special Covid-19 pandemic situation. The shorts always attack the very next day after a breakout yesterday and it will pull down $30 - $40 if we do not have a bull run. If we only down 1% or so for today and gain much higher tomorrow with 55M volume, then we a 2021 Nasdag Bull Run.

Good luck to all of us. Cheers
 
Margins are better on Megapacks and PWs? Great point then. But that's not what we'd read in the papers. The audience is counting cars still I think. When will they learn...

I think the rough math is that no matter what the product Tesla books about 600 bucks of revenue per kw of battery. Storage products don’t have anywhere near the amount of dressing around the battery. Battery storage is waaaaay more profitable than cars. If Tesla gets robotaxis working and slows automotive growth for awhile in favor of massive battery storage growth I’d 100% support that choice.
 
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