Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I don't see Tesla's current stand on PR as an issue, as they have no need to grow a horde of dissatisfied customers clamoring for cars that can't be built fast enough. If this temporarily damps purchases and they are still selling faster than they can produce, what is the concern?

 

[Tyler34]

I swear CNBC is just trolling us now.
NSFTF (not safe for tesla fans)
View attachment 643378
Seriously, stay safe in CA. Hope these 2 red S's aren't anyone's here.

Its too bad Nikola didnt have their badger parked at the top. Could've filmed it in motion.

 

[floydboy]

Looks like 669 and some change is it for today, until after hours I guess.

 

[traxila]

I suggest you look at Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap

even with the recent drop it wouldn't have gone below those.

When you talk about Enterprise Value, you have to include stuff like this:

$192 billion

In a recent study of 900 top companies, it was determined that, with $192 billion in debt, Volkswagen ranks first among the world's most indebted companies. That means it has more debt than countries like South Africa ($180.1 billion) and Hungary ($101.9 billion). Jul 17, 2020

In comparison, Tesla:

According to the Tesla's most recent balance sheet as reported on February 8, 2021, total debt is at $11.69 billion, with $9.56 billion in long-term debt and $2.13 billion in current debt. Adjusting for $19.38 billion in cash-equivalents, the company has a net debt of $-7.70 billion.Feb 12, 2021

 

[RobStark]

I don't see Tesla's current stand on PR as an issue, as they have no need to grow a horde of dissatisfied customers clamoring for cars that can't be built fast enough. If this temporarily damps purchases and they are still selling faster than they can produce, what is the concern?

Long term addressable market.

Once a perception of a company is cemented it is hard to change.

I guess Model S/X are production constrained again. They weren't for a while.

Passing legislation that doesn't discriminate against you also helps if 2/3 of public doesn't hate your guts. Not just store/dealership laws but also things like NY selling discounted electricity to CCS charging stations but not to Tesla supercharger stations.

 

[Skryll]

Thats inline with the circle of people I've asked, about 2/3 dislike musk. Mostly do to the Twitter antics.

'mostly due to twitter antics' - IMHO its mostly due to reading FUD on yahoo news / apple news. I have a good friend that test drove the M3, thought it was cool, but with all the FUD he reads, ended up buying a Honda Accord non-plugin hybrid, in 2020. Pretty frustrating to me, because he frames everything I correct as 'coming from a fanboy' and everything from the FUD slingers as 'coming from financial experts'. Even though he sees the range difference and more capability of the autopilot and better performance, he ended up chosing the Accord because he wouldn't trust Elon, wouldnt trust the build quality, wouldn't trust a company that shows a price on the website that includes potential savings. He also bought into the 'charging a car is harder than refueling gas' nonsense, which especially isn't true for him as a homeowner who could connect to a Tesla home charger overnight. He also didn't buy the cost argument, that in the long run the M3 would have been cheaper.

Of course we could say this doesn't matter, he is just one of the less fortunate ones that wasted their money on a legacy gas car and misses out while others get their Tesla first, and Tesla is battery constrained anyways, so its not that demand is a problem at this point.

 

[dhanson865]

When you talk about Enterprise Value, you have to include stuff like this:

$192 billion

In a recent study of 900 top companies, it was determined that, with $192 billion in debt, Volkswagen ranks first among the world's most indebted companies. That means it has more debt than countries like South Africa ($180.1 billion) and Hungary ($101.9 billion). Jul 17, 2020

In comparison, Tesla:

According to the Tesla's most recent balance sheet as reported on February 8, 2021, total debt is at $11.69 billion, with $9.56 billion in long-term debt and $2.13 billion in current debt. Adjusting for $19.38 billion in cash-equivalents, the company has a net debt of $-7.70 billion.Feb 12, 2021

Do you think financial websites know about stuff like that? Did you see the source link for the column in question? Are you saying that source is wrong?

 

[Johan]

A VW fan claimed on Twitter that they are holding back deliveries because a software update is not ready and the ID vehicles can't yet do OTA updates. They are supposed to restart deliveries when the update has been done using a physical connection. Don't know if this is accurate or not.

Might well be (partly) true, but due to the dealer model they can fudge their sales numbers by placing cars in lots... but they can't do it indefinately. Since it seems VW is trying to copy cat Tesla in every way possible - latest evidence being "Power Day" on March 15th (an obvious rip off of Tesla "Battery day") they should start by putting a 4G modem in their cars... Also they should get a smart and cool CEO.

 

[traxila]

Do you think financial websites know about stuff like that? Did you see the source link for the column in question? Are you saying that source is wrong?

You posted a link detailing market caps, not enterprise values. They are two different measures.

Market caps are calculated by multiplying share price by shares outstanding. That is it. Debt and liabilities are not included. All legacy OEMs have HUGE liabilities and debt. Market cap does not measure these. Enterprise value does.

That is a nice link, BTW.

Toyota, for example, has an current enterprise value of about 350B vs. their MC of 210B.

 

[StealthP3D]

One of the main reasons I see Tesla market share capped at ~50% even with Tesla having a superior product. Still means ~25x plus growth for Tesla. A lot of people hate Apple and hated Jobs too.

That's why I don't lose any sleep when people say that Elon Musk is too brash or controversial. Any publicity is good publicity, even people who don't like the CEO buy the products.

Plenty of people hate(d) Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg. Please remind me, what percentage of people with Internet have Facebook accounts?

 

[Drumheller]

I agree very few will get 8.2

8.3 is the version that Elon is saying everyone who paid for FSD will be able to get by pressing a button (and agreeing to various disclaimers and warnings).

March 16th is the expected date for 8.3/button.... but YMMV regarding Elon Time of course.


(and by everyone it's everyone in the US- he mentioned he'll be "asking" regulators in the EU about it but based on all the other nerfing we can expect the answer to be no.... maybe Canada eventually though given the smart summon delays there I wouldn't hold ones breath)

End of next week is March 20th.

I expect it will be later than that, but let's start with what Musk said.

 

[WattsHappening]

Please remind me, what percentage of people with Internet have Facebook accounts?

At most one person less than 100%.

 

[Johan]

That's why I don't lose any sleep when people say that Elon Musk is too brash or controversial. Any publicity is good publicity, even people who don't like the CEO buy the products.

Plenty of people hate(d) Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg. Please remind me, what percentage of people with Internet have Facebook accounts?

The internet says 60.6% in 2018.

Let's aim for 60% of people with driver's licenses driving Teslas in 2030.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Breaking: Tesla shares under pressure today due to 'unmotivated' accusations by Ford

/s

 

[dhanson865]

You posted a link detailing market caps, not enterprise values. They are two different measures.

Market caps are calculated by multiplying share price by shares outstanding. That is it. Debt and liabilities are not included. All legacy OEMs have HUGE liabilities and debt. Market cap does not measure these. Enterprise value does.

That is a nice link, BTW.

Toyota, for example, has an current enterprise value of about 350B vs. their MC of 210B.

NO I posted a spreadsheet that has market cap in the title but also shows enterprise values in column Q, have you even looked at the spread sheet on a computer with a screen large enough to see the content or are you just assuming it doesn't have enterprise values because the title of the link?

The source for column Q is linked have you visited that source? Did you even read what company it is? If you keep spouting definitions without looking at what the spreadsheet actually has in it I'm done with this conversation.

Per accepted financial websites TSLA has a larger enterprise value than TM or VOW.DE and has for some time now. That hasn't changed even with the recent dip.

 

[Johan]

View attachment 643385

Breaking: Tesla shares under pressure today due to 'unmotivated' accusations by Ford

/s

In other news I heard a guy in the grocery store say the Model X was too big for his garage. When Mitsubishi comes out with the MiEV v 2. it will be the beginning of the end for Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

That's why I don't lose any sleep when people say that Elon Musk is too brash or controversial. Any publicity is good publicity, even people who don't like the CEO buy the products.

Plenty of people hate(d) Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg. Please remind me, what percentage of people with Internet have Facebook accounts?

Those CEOs established quasi-monopolies before people hated their guts.

Many already hate Musk and Tesla has less than 2% US automotive market share.

I don't think constant anti-Musk/anti-Tesla propaganda is good publicity for Tesla or Musk.

Particularly when it is not answered by competent PR Team/ Advertising Team.

Like I said before doesn't block Tesla from being massively successful/ profitable. It would be easier if public perception reflected the facts on the ground. Americans should be bursting with pride at what Tesla is accomplishing.

 

[elasalle]

I said in my post there were two choices. There are always two choices in Car & Driver surveys. They want to push people out of neutral/middle of the road response.

Are you more a Tesla/Elon superfan or mostly a Tesla/Elon anti-fan.

Disbanding Tesla PR Team in favor of Elon Musk on social media isn't a 100% positive for Tesla.

One of the main reasons I see Tesla market share capped at ~50% even with Tesla having a superior product. Still means ~25x plus growth for Tesla. A lot of people hate Apple and hated Jobs too.

When you are the head of the pack of disruption, and 70-80% of people fall in the incumbents, (esp if we are talking about cars, gas, energy etc.), it is easy to see why so many people hate him
1st you have a Bias, and then you reenforce it.

 

[Nocturnal]

Thats inline with the circle of people I've asked, about 2/3 dislike musk. Mostly do to the Twitter antics.

That's not uncommon as people are stupid and shallow. They half hear one story on cable news and form an opinion based on that.

 

[Knightshade]

End of next week is March 20th.

I expect it will be later than that, but let's start with what Musk said.

Just to get "what Musk said" in 1 place-


Here he says 10 days (on March 6th- which would be March 16th)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1368329387733512193

here he says it'll be out roughly after QA testing is done which is supposed to be end of next week (posted on March 9th)....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1369237279378714629

So depending how vaguely he's using next week it might've slipped a few days from the March 6 post to the March 9th one. Slipping further wouldn't be shocking of course.