Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Antitrust lawsuit

I've previously detailed why TSLA is not a good candidate for a successful anti-trust suit, now or in the future.

But let's look at MSFT, a company that I think probably deserved it. The feds first brought their anti-trust concerns public in 1990. MSFT has appreciated over 24,000% since then! May 18th, 1998 the feds filed formal charges. In the 18 months following the lawsuit, MSFT tripled in price before the tech bubble burst in 2000. Think how much money you would have left on the table had you sold upon filing of the lawsuit! Or worse, when the feds first raised anti-trust concerns in 1990.

Microsoft has been under anti-trust concerns for over half of it's existence! And that's a company that probably deserved to be sued for anti-trust. Tesla? No, not even similar. Anti-trust requires more than a monopoly, it requires abuse of that monopoly power to actively prevent competitors from competing. Innovating too quickly does not trigger anti-trust concerns and Tesla's mission and corporate culture do not point to anti-trust ever being a serious concern.

I'm guessing that was said at least partially in jest but an anti-trust lawsuit is not even on my list of concerns.

 

[Knightshade]

As you said, dark environments, sunglasses, and tall drivers (hopefully what HEAD_TRUNC measures) are all limitations. But given the system is aware of its own limitations, it could be a hybrid driver-attentiveness monitoring system: where it relies on the camera when possible, and falls back to steering-wheel torque when not.

Absolutely.

Like I said- it's significantly better than nothing (and better than just "torque sensor on wheel" too.... especially if they use it to reduce the nag frequency... or eliminate it entirely in cases where the camera can easily see your eyes).

It's apparently already giving them data to bounce folks from the beta FSD program who aren't paying enough attention... and (ideally) will be "good enough" to satisfy any regulations that DO come down the line for driver monitoring.



EDIT- I thought I'd heard about this a while back but just checked..... as of mid-2022, the EU will require all new cars to have driver attention monitoring.

So this might be a way to satisfy that reg if it's "good enough" for those requirements without adding hardware.

 

[StealthP3D]

That's a very good take on it. However it is not true that that was the commercial I watched.

It starts with Will Ferrel saying "Did you know that Norway sells more electric cars per capita than the US"? And then crushes the in front of him and says "Well I won't stand for it!".

Cut to him getting in a GM EV (the upcoming 2023 Cadillac Lyriq) and saying "With GM's new Ultium battery we're gonna crush those losers".

Cut to him going to his friend, saying "Norway is out EV-ing us" and "Grab an EV, meet me in Norway". Then he picks up another friend saying exactly the same thing.

Cut. "GM's Ultium battery is made for all types of vehicles, so soon everyone can drive an EV".

He arrives in Norway (he thinks, turns out he's in Sweden). His friends are in the 2022 GM Hummer EV, apparently they drove to Finland instead.

Cut to text:

View attachment 644118

So: They are advertising only the following: A 2022 concept car, a 2023 concept car, "30 new EVs by 2025" and the Ultium battery. Nothing anyone can get today.

Yeah, that's the same commercial I was commenting on. Advertising is more complicated than you think. That's all this tells me. I don't care to peel the layers of the onion back and tell you how carefully this ad is crafted. There is a reason advertising executives make millions of dollars. Because it causes people to buy things they otherwise wouldn't buy. I laugh at people who say "Advertising doesn't work on me".

Human behavior is not as mechanistic as you seem to believe.

 

[st_lopes]

What we do know is that once the trading public became aware of BTC, there is a downward trend. It would be interesting to see if the trend can also be explained by interest rates for instance. My point is that the bitcoin purchase by Tesla does not seem to have been beneficial to Tesla stockholders.

Oh I get it now... it was the fact that every constituent of the Nasdaq bought and held BTC that brought their stock prices down over the last two months.

Come on man... Tesla buying BTC is a complete non event to the stock price. This sell off was completely tied to sectoral rotations, inflation fears, and treasury yield increases.

edit: typos

 

[Johan]

Yeah, that's the same commercial I was commenting on. Advertising is more complicated than you think. That's all this tells me. I don't care to peel the layers of the onion back and tell you how carefully this ad is crafted. There is a reason advertising executives make millions of dollars. Because it causes people to buy things they otherwise wouldn't buy. I laugh at people who say "Advertising doesn't work on me".

Human behavior is not as mechanistic as you seem to believe.

That or GM has a huge ad budget and well you gotta do something with all those millions of dollars.

It's clear that you are several levels smarter than me though so I'll take your word for it that the ad worked great and people bought lots of GM gas cars after seeing it.

 

[StealthP3D]

That or GM has a huge ad budget and well you gotta do something with all those millions of dollars.

It's clear that you are several levels smarter than me though so I'll take your word for it that the ad worked great and people bought lots of GM gas cars after seeing it.

I can't comment with any certainty on how effective the ad actually was, only on what the intended purpose was. But, if I had to guess, I would say they didn't do to badly with their intended audience. They are trying to keep the fence-sitters, fence-sitters. Because anyone who buys new cars regularly has to consider the possibility of buying an EV next time. Even if they decide not to one more time.

 

[insaneoctane]

I see that CNBC is trying to become like Fox News now. They'll keep the Boomers happy but every generation following will hate them as much as the rest of the mainstream media. I don't know a single Millennial or Zoomer who believes the media anymore and that's saying a lot.

Don’t. Trust. The. Media. Any of them.
The sooner pepole realize this, the sooner the media’s bias stops getting rewarded.

 

[PeterJA]

...You can easily have your head facing forward while still having your eyes looking at things other than the road... (or heck, closed for that matter)....

Yes, if you hold up your phone or laptop or girlfriend in front of you. But the camera can see that. It's a wide-angle camera, not focused on the driver's head only.

If a driver is clever enough to face the road without watching it, or to sleep without slumping... just to defeat Tesla's camera... well, that's mighty clever. I'm not sure if such geniuses exist, but if they do, they won't for long.

 

[SpaceCash]

So, so tempting, but now isn't the moment for me (house buying and all that...)

What's kinda interesting is that the price is only about 40% more than I paid for my current MX, and I bought that when I wasn't even 20% of a Teslanaire...

View attachment 644048

I reserved mine on Jan 8th when my account balance went up more in one day than I'd made in the previous 5 years at "work".
I considered refunding it during the recent price drop to buy more LEAPS but reasoned that it would probably take weeks to actually receive the refund and then deploy the cash. Plus I just didn't want to give up my FE Roadster for any length of time for basically emotional reasons.

I am still surprised that they are available. Once Elon gets around to putting a Roadster on the Nurburgring I bet the FEs will be snapped up.

 

[Knightshade]

Yes, if you hold up your phone or laptop or girlfriend in front of you

Or you just move your eyeballs, which is a thing humans can do.

In fact it's why the Model 3 doesn't need an instrument display directly in front of your head like a traditional car.

It's also why systems actually designed for driver monitoring do so by adding hardware to be able to see your eyes not just your head even in conditions like low light, no light, or wearing sunglasses.

 

[Jeeps17]

What comes after "incredibly filthy rich"?

Asking for a friend.

Insanely filthy rich -> Ludicrously filthy rich -> Plaid rich

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Much of Tesla's accident avoidance advantage is from the radar detecting 2 cars ahead. I don't see Tesla losing the radar even if not used for FSD.

The radar is also used for the parking chimes to let you know you're about to run into something.

 

[Singuy]

The radar is also used for the parking chimes to let you know you're about to run into something.

Pretty sure those are ultrasonic sensors working, pinging sound against hard surfaces.

 

[hobbes]

Beta testers were informed that they will be monitored via internal cameras.

Do you know that for a fact or does this still fall under "pretty sure" clause from your previous sentence ?

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Since the update I no longer seem to have a red dot next to the threads that contain new posts. Is this the same for everyone or is there some setting I have to change?

Thanks in advance

 

[hobbes]

I am also puzzled by the removal of radar for FSD, but I'm assuming that Elon is a lot smarter than me so there must be a good reason for it that will be revealed in the near future

I have been wondering about that, too. Might be that Elon was just talking about city streets FSD (which is the software they are working on now mostly) while radar is more important on the freeway, where the (older) Navigate on AP takes over.

 

[Singuy]

Do you know that for a fact or does this still fall under "pretty sure" clause from your previous sentence ?

Someone on reddit who knows someone with FSD beta said so. But it's just heresay.

Tho I believe it's against some kind of privacy laws if you are being monitored and not having consent to it.

 

[jerry33]

Since the update I no longer seem to have a red dot next to the threads that contain new posts. Is this the same for everyone or is there some setting I have to change?

Thanks in advance

The text is slightly (and I mean slightly) darker for the threads with new posts.

 

[SpaceCash]

Pretty sure those are ultrasonic sensors working, pinging sound against hard surfaces.

You're right... thought it was radar but you're right.

This explains why I feel like Bruce Wayne in my M3P...

 

[hobbes]

Since the dual-use ultrasonic sensors are not mentioned and can thus be assumed to remain in use by the FSD, I guess the motivation for removing the radar is cost - and possibly the risk of interference once many of these cars drive near each other.

Tesla like software solutions to a lot of problems. So maybe they will come up with a protocol through which trusted vehicles (i.e. other Teslas) on the road nearby can exchange information on the traffic conditions (assuming Internet is available). So when a Tesla slams on the brakes it could broadcast a warning, so for example another Tesla a few cars behind it can slow down. With a higher fraction of Teslas on the roads, this could to some extent compensate for the loss of the radar. Since this is basically a generalization of platooning, I would give it fair odds of happening.

I strongly doubt radar hardware will be removed. I think Elon talked about removing radar input to FSD city streets. I think on the freeway, where you are much faster and therefore have to look further ahead, radar cannot be replaced by visual especially in the dark, rain, or fog. I also don´t think there is a risk of interference between different cars - many cars have radar already and I bet they have a way of knowing a radar refelection signal is coming from their own unit (timing, signature).