Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Something interesting I discovered today, relevant to the powerwall business...
This is a map of the hourly electricity price auctions in Europe:

Market Data | EPEX SPOT

www.epexspot.com

I presume its price per MWH.
At 5am in the UK today, power was £1.90/MWH. At midday it was £60! I think its because it was SUPER windy early this morning, so our wind farms were probably going bananas at 5AM. Anyway... if I had a smart meter and a powerwall and a flexible tariff, I could have totally filled the car/powerwall at 5AM today and used that sweet cheap power all day...
Thats a HUGE price variance...

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

The text is slightly (and I mean slightly) darker for the threads with new posts.

Thanks. Even though I now know what to look for it is hard to spot (perhaps because I am using dark mode). Retrograde step from an ease of use perspective.

 

[Norwalk79]

Well I'm no gordon johson but it looks like to me in that article the peak year was 1966.

So maybe that portion should be something about Mustang sales peaking over 50 years ago, clearly a sign that the brand name of Ford and Mustang no longer has value in this century. They were strong in the1900s but competition has their number and they'll be putting out new cars next year.

as a style point I think Gordo always names Tesla as a singular and the competition is the "they" so he can mention multiple possibilities and not be pinned to any single point of comparison. So you should reserve "they" for Ford's competition if you are copying his style.

The giant Giga Presses in Berlin will reduce more than 70 parts in Model Y to 2 big Front part and Rear part holding the honeycombed new 4680 battery in the middle to increase the frame rigidity, best center gravity, a best car frame design with lowest part count and best productivity/manufacturing process. This model Y, production will start in July 2021, has top speed of 135 mph, 0-60mph 5.1 sec, will blow out the muscle car Ford Mustang Mach E out of water. Most street racing is determined by just a car length. Most Mustang Mach E buyers will sell their Mach E as soon as they are humbled by a sleek looking hatchback, does not even looking like a sport car.

In the past, the old ICE Mustang is a nostalgic/classic car associated with the famous classic movie "Bullitt". It is often classified as a muscle sport car in the 1960-70, but was lost to the Chevrolet TransAM and Pontiac Firebird. Recently, Dodge Challenger/Charger and Chevrolet Corvette are titled as muscle sport cars.
The 1968 Ford Mustang GT that famous actor Steve McQueen drove in the car chase from the classic movie “Bullitt” sold for $3.4 million at auction in Florida on Friday, Mecum Auctions said. The news was dated Jan 10th 2020.

I take this time to talk about “Evaluation”. The forever outstanding complaint against Tesla is the biggest overvalued bubble will be bursted tomorrow to $50 for more than 10 yrs, using the 100 yr old P/E P/S in the WWar 1 1919 era. Our world has evolved so much in the last 100yr that is amazing to me that 74M persons still have the 100 yr old mentality, including Tesla shorts and old-man-never-change fund managers

The key to “Evaluation” in principle is similar to the common quote: Beauty is in the eye of the beholder or = favored/liked/loved/crazy about. What evaluation formula is applied for the $3.4M 1968 Ford Mustang GT in the classic Bullitt?

Why a Gucci bag costs $5000 and a Walmart bag $50? Why your girlfriend like $5K diamond vs $50 fake stone? Why a dinner at Claim Jumper costs $100 and McDonald $10 ? I keep saying:

Tesla is an unique company with unique purposes, Apple is only about $1000 iphone from $20 old rotary /button home phone. Tesla is about multiple New revolutionary/engineering ideas, clean energy & storage..... for the next 10 years. It is an unique leader/game changer from the 100yr old coal/oil pollution. As new product/ideas progress it’s hard to meet forecast/estimates as unexpected issues surface along the way.

It is quite ignorant to use 100yr old valuation P/E for multiple revolutionary/engineering execution

Ford Mustang driven by Steve McQueen in 'Bullitt' sells for $3.4 million

 

[jerry33]

Thanks. Even though I now know what to look for it is hard to spot (perhaps because I am using dark mode). Retrograde step from an ease of use perspective.

It's been my experience that UIs typically get worse with each revision. TMC's is not as bad as some. I still miss the UI in Tesla V 6.x That was the best Tesla interface ever.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I would be very wary of ascribing significant meaning to that kind of technical analysis. The blue line depicts TSLA's 10X over the last 12 months. Their green line labeled "C" depicts TSLA going above that line (which is an accurate representation of what has recently happened). They say this means TSLA is considered under-valued and is now returning to the uptrend. While the mechanics of this are true, it doesn't imply we will likely avoid further down-drafts. I know they didn't say that but I can see how a lot of people would think that.

Personally, I think it's a very high probability that we drop significantly below that blue line within the next three months, six months even higher likelihood. In three months the blue line will be at ~$680 and in 6 months ~ $800. The key point here is that line doesn't offer any support as TSLA cannot continue to 10X every 12 months, not even close. So the timing of when this happens determines whether a purchase at this level will be significantly underwater or not at that time. My best guess is we might have one more runup, perhaps as high as the upper $700's, and then a deflation to a bit below current levels, probably a re-test of the recent low (while never breaching it).

The valuation of TSLA, for many years to come, will be highly subjective and this kind of analysis, while pretty and seemingly sensical, does little to clarify the actual path of TSLA's share price because the trend line is not sustainable.

My point was that the Market Insights report by Jeff Finkelstein used Tesla stock graph, without even mentioning Tesla or that the graph was that of TSLA, pointing to a quick reversal of the rotation from Growth stocks to Value stocks and now back to Growth stocks.

Your comment that Finkelstein's linear "blue line" showing TSLA over the 2020 10X gain period is an unrealistic support appears to make sense. Another period in TSLA history where the share price increased 10X, during the 2013-2014 runup during the ramp up of Model S, as represented in the "purple line". After this 10X gain the share price did drop significantly under this support level.

However, that same "purple line" from 10X growth of 2013-2014, when extended is far below our current share price. This may imply that the 10X growth 2020 "blue line" is the new trajectory. Back in 2013 Tesla had one unproved EV in limited quantities at one manufacturing facility and the risk of failure was extremely high. In 2021 Tesla has four poven EVs, which clearly sets the stage for the successfull Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster 2 and Model 2 in soon to be four major manufacturing hubs on three continents + Tesla Engegy + FSD +++multiple revenue streams.

@Artful Dodger 's post #249,507 extends the "blue line", which similar to the the "purple line", may again seem to be a low target for support price for future TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The radar is also used for the parking chimes to let you know you're about to run into something.

Hmm, I think that's done via the ultrasonic sensors:

 

[Norwalk79]

Something interesting I discovered today, relevant to the powerwall business...
This is a map of the hourly electricity price auctions in Europe:

Market Data | EPEX SPOT

www.epexspot.com

I presume its price per MWH.
At 5am in the UK today, power was £1.90/MWH. At midday it was £60! I think its because it was SUPER windy early this morning, so our wind farms were probably going bananas at 5AM. Anyway... if I had a smart meter and a powerwall and a flexible tariff, I could have totally filled the car/powerwall at 5AM today and used that sweet cheap power all day...
Thats a HUGE price variance...

Outstanding post with link, A+++++. I like to have your permission to use your post as a reference whenever I need to mention Tesla's Clean Energy and Power Storage business. Details of Tesla’s $200B energy storage business:

Tesla Energy to become $200B revenue business, Piper analyst predicts (NASDAQ:TSLA)

 

[Norwalk79]

My point was that the Market Insights report by Jeff Finkelstein used Tesla stock graph, without even mentioning Tesla or that the graph was that of TSLA, pointing to a quick reversal of the rotation from Growth stocks to Value stocks and now back to Growth stocks.

Your comment that Finkelstein's linear "blue line" showing TSLA over the 2020 10X gain period is an unrealistic support appears to make sense. Another period in TSLA history where the share price increased 10X, during the 2013-2014 runup during the ramp up of Model S, as represented in the "purple line". After this 10X gain the share price did drop significantly under this support level.
View attachment 644143

However, that same "purple line" from 10X growth of 2013-2014, when extended is far below our current share price. This may imply that the 10X growth 2020 "blue line" is the new trajectory. Back in 2013 Tesla had one unproved EV in limited quantities at one manufacturing facility and the risk of failure was extremely high. In 2021 Tesla has four poven EVs, which clearly sets the stage for the successfull Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster 2 and Model 2 in soon to be four major manufacturing hubs on three continents + Tesla Engegy + FSD +++multiple revenue streams.

View attachment 644147

@Artful Dodger 's post #249,507 extends the "blue line", which similar to the the "purple line", may again seem to be a low target for support price for future TSLA.

Excellent logic with best view included charts, A+++++

 

[EVMeister]

I feel like I'm on eBay with all this "A+++++" feedback going on.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I've previously detailed why TSLA is not a good candidate for a successful anti-trust suit, now or in the future.

But let's look at MSFT, a company that I think probably deserved it. The feds first brought their anti-trust concerns public in 1990. MSFT has appreciated over 24,000% since then! May 18th, 1998 the feds filed formal charges. In the 18 months following the lawsuit, MSFT tripled in price before the tech bubble burst in 2000. Think how much money you would have left on the table had you sold upon filing of the lawsuit! Or worse, when the feds first raised anti-trust concerns in 1990.

Microsoft has been under anti-trust concerns for over half of it's existence! And that's a company that probably deserved to be sued for anti-trust. Tesla? No, not even similar. Anti-trust requires more than a monopoly, it requires abuse of that monopoly power to actively prevent competitors from competing. Innovating too quickly does not trigger anti-trust concerns and Tesla's mission and corporate culture do not point to anti-trust ever being a serious concern.

I'm guessing that was said at least partially in jest but an anti-trust lawsuit is not even on my list of concerns.

It was fully in jest - I assumed "your friend" was you who had made too much money.

 

[Norwalk79]

Hmm, I think that's done via the ultrasonic sensors:

I'm both a videophile and audiophile and your Youtube sample meets all the A grade with very clear vocal explaination

 

[Norwalk79]

I feel like I'm on eBay with all this "A+++++" feedback going on.

You are correct, that's what I left for good sellers "Well packed, fast shipping, item as described, A+++++" from 2003 and on

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

I know if BTC drops during a quarter Tesla has to declare it in the earnings report, but they can’t count a profit in their earnings report until they sell. However, does Tesla have to report every time they buy/sell BTC during the quarter? Could they have sold at the previous high of $58K and bought back in the 40s? If so, this could have a significant positive impact on EPS.

 

[Baumisch]

We are entering a new era.

I am buying a piece of equipment which I may only use if I let it monitor my behavior and if it agrees with my actions.
If it does not agree, it will not function.
If I do not want to be monitored, it will not function.

As cars are getting more 'intelligent' I begin to feel less important. Am I really on the wheel? A truly intelligent car would make sure not to make me feel inferior.

There is a big difference between the car warning me about a danger or revoking functions that I have paid for. Was I informed of this behavior of the software before I purchased? Can it be refunded, if the conditions are changed by the seller of the equipment?

I read your post, thought this must have been a German, scrolled up and sure it is ... the Country of „blurrmany“ where Google had to pixelate streetview properties ane currently tesla sentry seems to be illegal to operate.

 

[RobStark]

The reason you've never seen a company advertise a non-existent product is because companies don't do that. They spend money to make money. What does that tell us? That they were trying to sell something else. Specifically, their gas cars (instead of their competitors electric cars). They are terrified of the mad rush to EV's when they don't have a volume solution.

What that ad was really saying was; Norwegians are different from Americans. You don't drive an EV because you are an American. A lot of Norwegians do that but not many Americans. You want to live like the American you are. It's OK to treat yourself to another gas car, the EV's will be even better in a few years. As an American it's OK to do this. It's normal. Buying an EV would only be normal if you lived in a foreign country.

Someone recently said I would never make it in marketing. That's because I understand it too well (and don't like what I see).

I remember two famous advertising campaigns that had nothing to do with selling product.

They are brand building campaigns.

In the early 1990s AT&T ran a campaign advertising the future of internet services including things like video conferencing. Telling Americans AT&T is the company that will bring you the future. Subtext is AT&T is a progressive forward looking company.

Another was Nissan's launch of the Infiniti brand. You didn't see a car nor did they mention the name or specs of their new Q45. They wanted to create a non pompous luxury image for the brand.

Your second point is pointless anti-American psychoanalysis of the GM campaign. Americans are provincial and stupid. Even though the ad was almost explicitly satirizing the trope of American hyper nationalism.

GM is building a 30 GWh Gigafactory in Ohio and is considering giving the final approval to a second GF in Tennessee. But GM hasn't given any thought to where batteries for all their Ultium cars will come from.

At least one market survey suggest there is plenty of demand for Tesla electric cars in the USA but not a lot for non-Tesla branded BEVs.

GM won't have all their Ultium BEVs on the market til 2025 but the first one arrives this Fall. The second, the Cadillac midsize CUV, arrives next Fall. You want to create demand for those before dealer lots are full of them. The Cadillac Lyriq was in the Super Bowl commercials.

 

[Norwalk79]

Something interesting I discovered today, relevant to the powerwall business...
This is a map of the hourly electricity price auctions in Europe:

Market Data | EPEX SPOT

www.epexspot.com

I presume its price per MWH.
At 5am in the UK today, power was £1.90/MWH. At midday it was £60! I think its because it was SUPER windy early this morning, so our wind farms were probably going bananas at 5AM. Anyway... if I had a smart meter and a powerwall and a flexible tariff, I could have totally filled the car/powerwall at 5AM today and used that sweet cheap power all day...
Thats a HUGE price variance...

Those wind farms electricity generation is similar to Solar panels and Tesla Power Wall/ Megawatts, part of Tesla Clean Energy & Power Storage $200B business: Tesla Energy to become $200B revenue business, Piper analyst predicts (NASDAQ:TSLA)

If every home, apartment building, office, restaurant, and retail center in Texas had a Tesla Powerwall over the past several months, stored excess power and hosted it on-site for use on a 2-weeks “rainy day” — then no one in Texas would’ve lost power in February, water pipes will not bursted and people had to wait in line for water in freezing weather.

Elon Musk is getting into the Texas power market, with 100 Megawatt gigantic battery in Houston area being built and will be connected to an ailing electric grid that collapsed 4 days last month. The move marks Tesla Inc.’s first major foray into the Epicenter of the U.S. Energy economy. The battery-storage system being built by Tesla’s Gambit subsidiary is registered with ERCOT. Warren Lasher, senior director of system planning at ERCOT, said the project has a proposed commercial operation date of June 1. The site is adjacent to a Texas-New Mexico Power substation.

 

[Norwalk79]

I remember two famous advertising campaigns that had nothing to do with selling product.

They are brand building campaigns.

In the early 1990s AT&T ran a campaign advertising the future of internet services including things like video conferencing. Telling Americans AT&T is the company that will bring you the future. Subtext is AT&T is a progressive forward looking company.

Another was Nissan's launch of the Infiniti brand. You didn't see a car nor did they mention the name or specs of their new Q45. They wanted to create a non pompous luxury image for the brand.

Your second point is pointless anti-American psychoanalysis of the GM campaign. Americans are provincial and stupid. Even though the ad was almost explicitly satirizing the trope of American hyper nationalism.

GM is building a 30 GWh Gigafactory in Ohio and is considering giving the final approval to a second GF in Tennessee. But GM hasn't given any thought to where batteries for all their Ultium cars will come from.

At least one market survey suggest there is plenty of demand for Tesla electric cars in the USA but not a lot for non-Tesla branded BEVs.

GM won't have all their Ultium BEVs on the market til 2025 but the first one arrives this Fall. The second, the Cadillac midsize CUV, arrives next Fall. You want to create demand for those before dealer lots are full of them. The Cadillac Lyriq was in the Super Bowl commercials.

Remember that long time ago, Toyota/Nissan/Honda brought the 3 gas guzzler dinosaurs GM/Ford/Chrysler to their knee/bankruptcy? Tesla now is doing the same to All 6 ICE dinosaurs, 100 yr old dirty coal/oil industries/nations and their 100 yr old valuation with its $25K($19K with renewed $7K credit for 400K EVs) high performance/engineering with new 4680 battery EVs, $200B clean energy, new standard SpaceX (kill other space dinosaurs)

GM and VW were proven to be INFERIOR to the king Tesla, no matter how hard they tried. I stored my posts in a word file and we'll see at the end of 2021 delivery and Jan 2021 earning.

 

[RobStark]

I can't comment with any certainty on how effective the ad actually was, only on what the intended purpose was. But, if I had to guess, I would say they didn't do to badly with their intended audience. They are trying to keep the fence-sitters, fence-sitters. Because anyone who buys new cars regularly has to consider the possibility of buying an EV next time. Even if they decide not to one more time.

GM's entire plan for satisfying future CAFE and CARB requirements is selling lots of BEVs.

They are getting rid of their small fuel efficient ICEv that sell at huge losses.

They no longer sell hybrids that sold at huge losses.

They are out of the passenger FCEV business, but will sell their hydrogen fuel cell stacks to heavy commercial vehicle makers.

Their intermediate plan is to sell big ICEv that makes huge profits and big BEV at a profit.

If their Ultium cars don't sell reasonably well GM is royally screwed. Their other option would be paying fines and/or buying regulatory credits from Tesla.

 

[Norwalk79]

Have I posted this one before? Tesla is #1 EV manufacturing in this planet earth:

One Tesla Model Y every two minutes

Chinese motoring outlet Pacific Automotive Network was recently granted limited access to the Phase 2 area of Gigafactory Shanghai, which produces the Model Y. It observed the fact that Giga Shanghai’s Phase 2 zone is already building an average of 700 Model Y per day, one Model Y every two minutes

Tesla’s Q4 FY 2020 Update Letter also estimated Giga Shanghai to produce a total of 450,000 Model 3 and Model Y this year, a number that seems conservative considering the current pace of the all-electric crossover’s manufacturing ramp.

Did I say that GM and VW were proven to be INFERIOR to the king Tesla, no matter how hard they tried.

 

[Norwalk79]

GM's entire plan for satisfying future CAFE and CARB requirements is selling lots of BEVs.

They are getting rid of their small fuel efficient ICEv that sell at huge losses.

They no longer sell hybrids that sold at huge losses.

They are out of the passenger FCEV business, but will sell their hydrogen fuel cell stacks to heavy commercial vehicle makers.

Their intermediate plan is to sell big ICEv that makes huge profits and big BEV at a profit.

If their Ultium cars don't sell reasonably well GM is royally screwed. Their other option would be paying fines and/or buying regulatory credits from Tesla.

Bravo brother, did I say GM and VW were proven to be INFERIOR to the king Tesla, no matter how hard they tried.