Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Norwalk79]

Musk says Tesla would be shut down if its cars spied in China, elsewhere

Tesla Inc chief executive Elon Musk said on Saturday his company would be shut down if its cars were used to spy, his first comments on news that China's military has banned Teslas from its facilities.

www.reuters.com

“There’s a very strong incentive for us to be very confidential with any information,” Musk told a prominent Chinese forum during a virtual discussion. “If Tesla used cars to spy in China or anywhere, we will get shut down.”

It seems everybody is not aware that China always hide its secrets, so very afraid of Tesla EV's 8 hi-res external cameras used for FSD purpose, NOT for spying!!!! a really kiddy thinking, OMG.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

[UK] I have to sell in taxable account before 2nd April & buy in tax-free on or after 6th April. I'm thinking of selling Monday 22nd or 29th. Hopefully shares around same price on 6th April (or lower), but I think that's unlikely with delivery numbers (assuming published by then). Not much I can do other than delay re-purchase for a dip, but I don't like to be out too long in case of sudden upward movements. Maybe buy back in on Friday 9th or 16th April

Perhaps you can use options to hedge the risk?

 

[Pras]

ARK’s bear case assume 5 million cars sold in 2025. If it happens imagine how far ahead Tesla will be compared to so called competition. And while doing that it will still be a growing company with single digit market share in the industry.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

TLDR

1. Tesla 's FSD chip focus mainly on NN matrix computation, and with enough memory bandwidth to fit large NNs.

2. Most of the components on the SOC is licensed, except the NN portion of the chip

3. Doesn't stop Nvidia from making the exact same chip as Tesla's. James didn't find anything on the FSD computer that's very complex. The NN engine in fact has been done by Nvidia and is in their computer, however they just don't focus mainly on NN therefore dedicating a small area of the die to it while giving it little memory bandwidth.

4. Nvidia is not focusing on NN because it's a huge gamble since no one truly knows what will enable L5 driving. Unless Nvidia can sell millions of said chip, they are going with the kitchen sink design so it can do something for everyone, vs going down one path which is Tesla's vision only NN path.

5. At the end it's a business road block, not a technical road block that prevents other from making Tesla's FSD computer

6. The fleet is what enables Tesla to go down this route, while other legacy autos wouldn't spend an extra nickel to "future proof" their cars or give away hardware to have them enabled one day. This is the chicken and the egg roadblock to NN based FSD from competitors.

7. Mobile Eye does not dedicate too much NN processing power on their chip as well..again not that they can't, they just don't think NN is the path to L5 FSD.


This was extremely informative. My conclusion is Tesla's FSD computer is as dedicated in believing NN being the answer to FSD as their stance on no lidar.

Agree that Nvidia, or for that matter any of the major design houses would have much difficulty replicating Tesla's FSD chip. The barriers to entry are mainly cultural (not invented here, its core computation element is too simple) and business (we need something that can satisfy many different customers, lots of levels of management each adding bells and whistles).

 

[Norwalk79]

Even though he said it - I think his position is likely to change based on the performance of FSD. The longer he thinks it will take for FSD to become a real product, the more likely he would be to build a ride-hailing app.

Elon was confident that Tesla FSD will reach level 5 this year (2021), based on an interview on Dec 2020. Remember that any forecast/estimate is subject to change. Level 9, much better than beta 8.2 and 8.3 is supposed to be released this next month April, about 2-3 weeks from now ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1366950863298646019

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I see Tesla starting with the manufacture of LFP 4680 cells in India as early as 2023.

If we assume there is a Roadrunner "A Team" that does these factory install the schedule is:-

1. 2020 Fremont
2. 2021 Austin
3. 2022 Berlin
4. 2023 India (probably overly optimistic, might do more in the US /EU first)

That is a poor assumption in my opinion. An "A Team" is definitely needed for the first factory, after that only tweaks are required for subsequent factories. So only a strong "B team" is required to duplicate the basic factory design and commissioning. Teams can be duplicated so more than on factory can be worked on at once. Also it won't take a year to build a cell/battery factory and bring it up to initial production.

 

[EVMeister]

Another blatant Violent Crash/Autopilot news in Tesla smear campaign...

Whilst I and I'm sure others appreciate some of your posts, you do seem to empty out a lot of trash onto this thread. A lot of people here are seasoned Tesla investors and are quite immune to these types of FUD articles. By posting links to them here and trying to engage in some form of discussion about them you're essentially legitimising them. I don't feel it's a constructive use of our (collectively speaking) time to concern ourselves with such articles. They've existed for a long time, they will continue to exist for a long time. If a specific issue they raise is having a clear direct impact on the stock price then it might be worthy of discussion, otherwise I don't see the merit of bringing up such things in this thread.

 

[MC3OZ]

That is a poor assumption in my opinion. An "A Team" is definitely needed for the first factory, after that only tweaks are required for subsequent factories. So only a strong "B team" is required to duplicate the basic factory design and commissioning. Teams can be duplicated so more than on factory can be worked on at once. Also it won't take a year to build a cell/battery factory and bring it up to initial production.

It might be equipment, staff or some other consideration like raw materials or anodes, but there is some limitation for now on ramping cell production.

For some reason Austin is happening before Berlin, the team are just one of a number of possible reasons.

Any "B Team" would need to know how all the equipment works, how to set it up, how to solve problems. Tesla could video or document some of the set up, but they need to ensure competitors don't get access to those documents.

So at least for Austin the team that set up Fremont could be heavily involved with some of them on site. Construction 6 months, ramp 6 months. 12 months is a generous estimate.. The team doesn't need to be on site for construction. For the equipment installation, we have no idea what it entails, but my guess is that the team is heavily involved.

Odviously over time, more knowledge will be spread, processes refined and parallel projects will be possible.

To be clear LFP cells for energy are the right move for India, energy storage is likely to be higher demand than automotive.

 

[Tslynk67]

ARK’s bear case assume 5 million cars sold in 2025. If it happens imagine how far ahead Tesla will be compared to so called competition. And while doing that it will still be a growing company with single digit market share in the industry.

I read their figures as cumulative, so 5m by and including 2025

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Any opinions on why ARK found it the best timing to release their report on a Friday night after even AH had closed. Could they have tried harder to get as little impact as possible?

 

[Pras]

I read their figures as cumulative, so 5m by and including 2025

No. It is annual,

“our forecast for Tesla’s unit sales is between 5 and 10 million vehicles in 2025.”

 

[Singuy]

Musk says Tesla would be shut down if its cars spied in China, elsewhere

Tesla Inc chief executive Elon Musk said on Saturday his company would be shut down if its cars were used to spy, his first comments on news that China's military has banned Teslas from its facilities.

www.reuters.com

“There’s a very strong incentive for us to be very confidential with any information,” Musk told a prominent Chinese forum during a virtual discussion. “If Tesla used cars to spy in China or anywhere, we will get shut down.”

What a company will be shut down if it commits treason? Maybe things become wet if it touches water as well.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Perhaps you can use options to hedge the risk?

Thanks, I haven't done options before & number of shares relatively small, I guess I'd benefit from any sustained increase in price on the shares I have in ISA/SIPP.

I'm not sure about options, not against them, but not sure of which provider/broker (all - feel free to message me for UK / international providers) & how to do it.

These are my last shares outside of SIPP/ISA shares, after that tax free for ISA and keep SIPP drawings within income limits when I'm old enough to retire (officially, if I had a lot more in ISA investments, I could pull trigger sooner).

 

[tschmidty]

No, I sold 13x $660 and 18x $665 as I considered these safe with less than 2 hours of trading to go and the SP being capped below $650 for most of the day

I will admit to a squeaky-bum moment as the SP started heading north in the close. I was out waking the dogs at that moment (yeah, I know, bad timing, blame the wife...), so had to use my phone app and had a buy order for the $660's ready to send to market just in case. Was actually a god job that I couldn't see the stock chart, I would have been even more worried

Trading under influence, always gives a buzz

Ah, I thought you meant 3/26 calls.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla offers to cover lost EV credit for UK Model 3 buyers

In response to the UK government excluding the Model 3 from the EV incentive program, Tesla is offering to cover the difference.

driveteslacanada.ca

End of quarter deal

 

[UkNorthampton]

I don't think these words mean what you think they mean.

I like pedantry/precision/clarity. I should have phrased "I have to sell in taxable account" as something like

"I have decided that on my appraisal of the balance of probabilities, it is beneficial to me and those I care about to move Tesla shares from taxable accounts (capital gains at 0%/10%/20% and dividends at 7.5%/32.5%/38.1% tax rates depending on income bands & likely detrimental future tax changes which are suggested by media articles) using my/wife's 2020-2021 Capital Gains Allowances of £12,300 each to tax free wrappers called ISA even if the eventual number of shares in the tax wrapper is reduced as any future taxation is zero (subject to legal/tax changes which are rarely changed for existing wrappers/situations)"

Clarity, I think I've failed on. Brevity, big fail.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla offers to cover lost EV credit for UK Model 3 buyers

In response to the UK government excluding the Model 3 from the EV incentive program, Tesla is offering to cover the difference.

driveteslacanada.ca

End of quarter deal

Also a completely dick move for not having a grace period. People budgeted for a car a few thousand cheaper and then disappeared right before deliveries. What was that UK?

 

[traxila]

I love ARK. Own lots of ARK.

I love Tesla. Own even more TSLA.

Someone please explain to me how 5M cars sold in 2025 is a ‘bear’ case. That is well above 50% YOY increase.

Not saying this isn’t happening, but ‘bear’ case?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Rumor has it that Tesla paid cold, hard cash for that product placement.

How do I know?

Prove me wrong!

/s

This is untrue. Tesla supplied the car and dead body for free. And had to clean the blood off the car interior. They were considering a Model X & the classic "tumbling over after leaving road" scene but Model X wouldn't tumble and only fizzled a bit when it hit the bottom. They missed a trick of giving a Rimac to Richard Hammond (or to be fair, rocket car, Trabant or anything to Richard Hammond).

 

[JustMe]

Anybody speaks chinese? Here is the Elon Musk talk, but it’s translated into Chinese

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m.weibo.cn

I can tell you that the characters “物理学家” means “physics department” in Japanese. But that just makes it more painful that I cannot read it - particularly because I have a degree in physics!