Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

The timing of this "profile" this morning is pretty suspect, coinciding with ARK's new TSLA targets. It is obviously meant to discredit Cathie with the crowd that most closely aligns with her by subtly highlighting her political and religious views. But again, the timing is all about trying to discredit her TSLA thesis, which is a gargantuan task given how right she was the first time around.

What it means if Cathie Wood is the face of the market

Is the tech up cycle of the bull market over, and if so, does that mean Cathie Wood’s time is up? It’s a big question not just for Wood but for millions of us.

www.yahoo.com

I've noticed way more mentions of ARKK on CNBC lately - and especially when it's falling... even Mike "master of utter" Santoli opines on it and groups it with all the target buzzwords - momo, Reddit, tech, EV etc.. They're probably trying to slow down inflows, as it hurts the inflows of the establishment funds. ARKK is definitely on their radar.

 

[woodisgood]

Haven't digested any of this, but it's further confirmation to me that Ark just got lucky. The idea of Automotive, even with FSD, being worth today's market cap is absurd.

If this is the apex of current analysis, I kinda hope my $1300 sold calls do get executed this summer so I can but back at $800 in 2024.

How is it so hard to understand that Energy is everything? It's been the rule of the entire human civilization literally our entire lives.

A couple of thoughts on why:

First, you could argue that ARK doesn't have the analysts to understand the energy side, much like AJ has had such trouble wrapping his head around a non-traditional auto company. However, I don't buy that at all - the ARK crew is incredibly shrewd. Those cats aren't missing the energy equation and its enormous implications. So then the question becomes, why would they continue to leave it out?

1) They may not view it as important to the Tesla story until after 2025. It will continue to scale and mature during the next few years, but really take off after 20M autos/yr are reached. In other words, it will be the story of Tesla from 2025-2035 and beyond. And if you start including it in price targets now, they really start to seem detached from reality. There's no sense in ARK putting out a 10T market cap for Tesla right now. Just focus on the growth that's immediately in front of you, and that in of itself is a lot. EDIT: To put a finer point on it, you can't turn the energy markets on their heads until you have enough batteries to do so, and you won't have enough batteries to do so until you can make all the cars you want to be making.

2) Ignoring TE provides their predictions with a hedge. Even if they overshot what auto and FSD can/will do by 2025, it's possible TE will pick up the slack and propel the stock price to their targets nonetheless.

3) TE, though not secret or hidden, is THE information advantage that Tesla longs enjoy over everyone else right now, with auto and FSD plans in the open and mostly well-understood (belief is another question). ARK may wish to keep that information advantage for some time longer so they can accumulate more. With money continuing to flow into their funds, they have a lot more TSLA to buy.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tom Nash - overnight:

 

[lascavarian]

Not too much use of releasing 8.3, feedback for which isn’t helpful as it will not apply to the new Birdseye approach.

My understanding is that 8.x uses a partial birdseye view. EM did not specifically state that 8.x will not be released but did say it is not helpful for the 9.x beta. I have been using FSD beta code for years and it has never been the latest code and not particularly helpful to the 8.x beta releases being used today. It is common for Elon to focus on the code he is using and with which he is familiar.

My guess is that if the 9.x code stumbles a bit (almost all code does in my experience) then the 8.x beta might come out for a time. It does seem clear that development of 8.x has stopped.

On another note, he clearly seems to be branding "Pure Vision" IMO which is great.

 

[Sofie]

The timing of this "profile" this morning is pretty suspect, coinciding with ARK's new TSLA targets. It is obviously meant to discredit Cathie with the crowd that most closely aligns with her by subtly highlighting her political and religious views. But again, the timing is all about trying to discredit her TSLA thesis, which is a gargantuan task given how right she was the first time around.

What it means if Cathie Wood is the face of the market

Is the tech up cycle of the bull market over, and if so, does that mean Cathie Wood’s time is up? It’s a big question not just for Wood but for millions of us.

www.yahoo.com

Lol! Sounds like someone wanting to get some shares for “cheap” on Monday . Nice try.

 

[Skryll]

[...]On another note, he clearly seems to be branding "Pure Vision" IMO which is great.

I am a bit puzzled that he would say he doesn't even need radar. We drive with multiple senses, so focusing on only vision and ignoring other senses seems like a step back? Imagine driving deaf. Maybe its offset by more cameras, but diversity of sense seems like an evolutionary advantage to be more resilient in a variety of environments and partial disablement?

 

[AimStellar]

I am a bit puzzled that he would say he doesn't even need radar. We drive with multiple senses, so focusing on only vision and ignoring other senses seems like a step back? Imagine driving deaf. Maybe its offset by more cameras, but diversity of sense seems like an evolutionary advantage to be more resilient in a variety of environments and partial disablement?

Do you drive with radar, lidar? Just vision, right?

 

[Discoducky]

Cause we bought The Bellagio? Or there for the Celine concert?

After recently watching the movie Oceans 11, I'm assuming that in the year 2025 if all goes to plan it will feel like we've all just, not only beat traditional autos, but partially own them.

 

[Knightshade]

Haven't digested any of this, but it's further confirmation to me that Ark just got lucky. The idea of Automotive, even with FSD, being worth today's market cap is absurd.

Auto, with working L5 FSD right now, would be worth 10x the current market cap.

It's an insanely valuable and disruptive thing if Tesla (or anyone) actually had it today.


It's only ARK thinking they don't even get there by 2025 that keeps their targets as low as they are.

How is it so hard to understand that Energy is everything? It's been the rule of the entire human civilization literally our entire lives.

So far at every chance Tesla has chosen to grow auto faster rather than energy-They won't even take powerwall orders anymore unless tied to a tesla solar install because of how badly battery starved the energy business is while most supply goes to auto... All indications are this will continue in the future- why do you think that is, if energy is "everything"?

I am a bit puzzled that he would say he doesn't even need radar. We drive with multiple senses, so focusing on only vision and ignoring other senses seems like a step back? Imagine driving deaf. Maybe its offset by more cameras, but diversity of sense seems like an evolutionary advantage to be more resilient in a variety of environments and partial disablement?

Several folks have pointed out how little sense this makes.

Radar is the one sensor on the car that can provide info it's simply impossible for vision to provide (seeing through bad weather, bouncing past the car in front to the next car the cameras can't see, etc).

Some have suggested this is specific to city-streets-- that it won't use radar for low-speed tight city driving, but will still use it on the highway.... that doesn't really fix the concerns though

Do you drive with radar, lidar? Just vision, right?

Lidar can't give you any additional info beyond what perfected vision already can give you.

Radar can

Isn't the goal better than human safety?

 

[SpaceCash]

Do you drive with radar, lidar? Just vision, right?

That doesn't mean radar wouldn't help me. Or if I had a fleet of nano-drones scouting the road ahead of me to warn me of sharp rocks in my path. Just because I can drive based off of just vision doesn't mean some extra tech wouldn't help me.

 

[AimStellar]

That doesn't mean radar wouldn't help me. Or if I had a fleet of nano-drones scouting the road ahead of me to warn me of sharp rocks in my path. Just because I can drive based off of just vision doesn't mean some extra tech wouldn't help me.

I believe the cars will use cameras to build a map of their surroundings, deep learning algorithms to understand what they're seeing, and advanced AI to predict into the future and make intelligent decisions.

 

[SpaceCash]

I believe the cars will use cameras to build a map of their surroundings, deep learning algorithms to understand what they're seeing, and advanced AI to predict into the future and make intelligent decisions.

I don't disagree but I'm just saying extrasensory tech sounds like a good thing to me. I am not going to attempt to coach Elon on technology though, I basically trust he's got this.

 

[Tyler34]

9 will use a Birdseye view, a view of all cameras together, with also a time component where the system still knows what it saw in the previous Birdseye view. This makes it much more aware and better at judging situations.


Not too much use of releasing 8.3, feedback for which isn’t helpful as it will not apply to the new Birdseye approach.

That Elon hopes it will be April is not encouraging, as it will mean that I have to hold my breath even longer before I can see movies of it in action.

I also think he shouldnt have said there is no need for data on 8.3. If that is the case, take beta away from all those folks until 9 comes out. Why risk bad press and continue to alienate the majority of your customers if you truly dont need that data.

 

[EVWatcher]

I also think he shouldnt have said there is no need for data on 8.3. If that is the case, take beta away from all those folks until 9 comes out. Why risk bad press and continue to alienate the majority of your customers if you truly dont need that data.

When he tweeted that part of me wondered if it wasn't to prove a point to someone about how much people wanted it.

 

[buttershrimp]

PREDICTION TIME- stock price end of day on Monday? Cathie wood versus 10 year bond yield... who will prevail? Name the end of day price or be lame!

 

[buttershrimp]

I’ll go first 810

 

[Discoducky]

I am a bit puzzled that he would say he doesn't even need radar. We drive with multiple senses, so focusing on only vision and ignoring other senses seems like a step back? Imagine driving deaf. Maybe its offset by more cameras, but diversity of sense seems like an evolutionary advantage to be more resilient in a variety of environments and partial disablement?

TL;DR - Radar will be in the car for the foreseeable future due to it's need to be fused with camera for it's primary use case which is high speeds to see through the lead car or heavy rain. I don't see any other scenario where radar would be useful to the AI.

Longer version - Just to add a bit of color, Elon has never been a fan of per se'. It is expensive compared to vision in terms of BOM cost, it is expensive in terms of coding as the radar needs firmware (not owned by Tesla), software (not owned by Tesla), application support (top of the stack) tweaking, fusion with camera data and specific flagging of certain high confidence scenarios. In short it is a big pain in the neck compared to vision.

However, it is best when it is utilized at high speeds to see through lead cars and can greatly reduce crash energy in these high speed situations. Radar can see much farther than even a camera with a narrow or long focus lens and can classify objects at these distances with relative speeds. Radar has a huge advantage, but only at high speeds. Slow speeds it is a crutch as vision is much more reliable.

 

[woodisgood]

I’ll go first 810

Ambitious. I’ll say we close around 700.

 

[tschmidty]

On the energy front, I do find it very interesting that Tesla seems to be the owner of the 100MW install in Texas recently mentioned Report: Tesla is secretly building a giant 100 MW battery in Texas.

It makes more sense for Tesla for long term revenue to own and operate the batteries as opposed to just selling them to a 3rd party. This is where I see the energy side growing in the future, so it is interesting that that is the direction they seem to be indicating here.

And I will reiterate my position that "robotaxi" revenue will continue to be a non starter for quite a few years to come. And even when it is technically possible, it takes some wild assumptions to assume Tesla will be massively more profitable at it than Uber/Lyft. I mean at all profitable rather. I'm not going to hodl my breath for it, but I will HODL my shares.

 

[Discoducky]

I’ll go first 810

I'll take 811 Bob! (it's price is right rules right? I sure do hope that folks respond positively to her new price targets and it does move the stock. I wonder if it will though as compared to registration data and production data from March and thus Q1 production/delivery estimates. And then I'm really looking forward to the first Plaid deliveries, reviews with yoke, drag races, cabin noise cancelling (yes, I'm an audiophile and really waiting to hear about this before placing my order for a new Plaid S).

So things that could move the stock in the next week:
1. First deliveries/reviews of Plaid S
2. First drag race of sub 2 seconds and sub 9.3 seconds 1/4 mile and 155+ trap (fastest production car ever)
3. "The button" release with V9.0 FSD (low probability as evidenced by Elon on Twitter recently; April/May)