Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - half hour ago: Options Alerts - TSLA

Regarding TSLA (NASDAQ:TSLA), we observe a put option sweep with bullish sentiment. It expires in 2 day(s) on March 26, 2021. Parties traded 210 contract(s) at a $600.00 strike. This particular put needed to be split into 18 different trades to become filled. The total cost received by the writing party (or parties) was $31.5K, with a price of $150.0 per contract. There were 8714 open contracts at this strike prior to today, and today 24508 contract(s) were bought and sold.

 

[ZeApelido]

Even better- use someone ELSES $ at 2% or less.

Then repay it with inflation devalued $ in the future.

Allegedly there's a few countries where buying a Tesla with BTC would not be taxable on the gains, if that's true and Tesla opens BTC ordering there, that MIGHT make sense- but otherwise I can't imagine why anybody would trade a supposedly "deflationary store of value" for a car rather than getting an at/near inflation cash loan .

It's more free press for Tesla, but it'd require a lot of weirdness to have any material impact on anything.

Yeah I think this is more about just pushing worldwide sentiment toward normalizing Bitcoin usage.

I am still struggling to come to terms with Tesla's mission and concurrent bitcoin engagement.

 

[Mo City]

A very credible Tesla bull (Alexander Potter) says we may need to fasten our seat belts for 2020 but it will be worth it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374765386298765316

 

[ReddyLeaf]

So we're probably about 3 weeks or so from the Q1 earnings release. Off the top of my head:

Possible Bullish News
- China production comes out better than expected supported by MY ramp
- China supercharger factory production ramps
- Market finally recognizes value of crypto gain
- Positive updates on semi development
- Positive updates on FSD (V9) release (albeit delayed a quarter)
- TSLA provides guidance to help investors price in energy projects (ie. Angleton)
- Discloses they purchased additional land in Shanghai for expansion
- Clarifies that casting machinery (and production) was not affected by fire
- India updates
- M2 development update

Bearish
- Berlin slower than expected??
- Silicon shortage
- Foam shortage
- Price increases due to battery input material cost increases
- Fed screws up auctions (2, 5Y today + 7Y tomorrow) and/or does nothing else
- Biden EV plan underwhelms and only includes unionized manufacturers
- Ford unveils a previously undisclosed hidden rotisserie compartment in the rear of the Mach E.

Great list. I would really like to see Tesla reveal a sprinter-type delivery van for production out of GF Berlin. Unfortunately, I don’t think Wall Street will react to much of anything, except sales, revenue and profits.

Edit: I put in a bunch of 3 shr buys at $10 lower increments, using proceeds from my sold -c702.50s. The first two batches just hit, lowest buy so far was at $642.69 and next batch is in the $630s. I’m using @Lycanthrope method, sold -c802.50s at the Monday peak, then rolled down yesterday AM on a local minimum, once it became clear that 700 was a huge wall. I’m not ready to get much closer than that, still will probably collect >$6000, which will go into buying more TSLA on these drops.

 

[asburgers]

Great list. I would really like to see Tesla reveal a sprinter-type delivery van for production out of GF Berlin. Unfortunately, I don’t think Wall Street will react to much of anything, except sales, revenue and profits.

Me too. They just have too much going on right now especially with battery constraints. I would eventually like a Semi based RV in the future as I sell my home (looks at stock price) and live in Walmart parking lots.

Looks like the market doesn't like how the 5Y went even though there's more participation this time and things went ok. Now the FUDs are questioning tomorrow's 7Y.

 

[insaneoctane]

Looking for TESLA party favors for aforementioned bday party. Found these for $12. How do I not already have them? FML

View attachment 647554

OMG, I didn’t appreciate your post until I clicked on the image and realized those tights say TSLA on them!

 

[AimStellar]

Looking for TESLA party favors for aforementioned bday party. Found these for $12. How do I not already have them? FML

View attachment 647554

 

[corduroy]

Shook the couch and got 5 more at $643

 

[Cherry Wine]

Exactly my thoughts! Even my BRK B has been down.
Also - IBKR sent out a notice yesterday to people with high concentration of TSLA portfolios that they are raising margin requirements over the next 10 days.

Interesting. I haven't received any such notice, and my IBKR portfolio is literally 100% TSLA. Maybe my margin requirements are already high.

 

[asburgers]

This is not only cool, it probably saves a few dollars on parts and installation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374589809344266243

 

[jamaatta]

Speaking of charging promises of Porsche. In Electrek. We'll see, what happens...

Porsche Taycan to have 250 kW charging at launch, promised 350 kW coming in 2021

Porsche is getting ready to bring the Taycan, its first all-electric car, to production in the next few months and...

electrek.co

 

[dl003]

A very credible Tesla bull (Alexander Potter) says we may need to fasten our seat belts for 2020 but it will be worth it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374765386298765316

Nobody told me there were seatbelts on this ship. Dang it. Is this why we're sliding today?

 

[asburgers]

Interesting. I haven't received any such notice, and my IBKR portfolio is literally 100% TSLA. Maybe my margin requirements are already high.

Who knows. It doesn't impact me. Maybe they don't trust Canadians. Here's a part of the note. All it did was caused me to wonder all night if they knew something that I did't.

NOTICE OF MARGIN INCREASE​

Dear Client, In light of the current trading environment and the company-specific volatility, Interactive Brokers has determined that a further margin increase is warranted for accounts that hold a concentrated position in Tesla Inc. (TSLA). The requirement will work as follows:​ An alternative stress test will be run, subsequent to the margin calculation currently in place, with the greater of the two becoming the active requirement. TSLA (Tesla Inc.) stock and its derivatives will be subject to a stress test that simulates a price change in the underlying stock of -50%. ​ The projected loss for TSLA, assuming a price change of -50%, will be compared to the aggregate margin requirement as determined under the alternate calculation for the aggregate portfolio and, if greater, will become the margin requirement for the portfolio. In order to allow traders to adjust their portfolio and/or capital positions accordingly, the margin increase will be implemented in a series of gradual steps over a 10-day period, beginning after US close on Wednesday, March 24, 2021, and concluding after the US close on Tuesday, April 6, 2021.​

 

[dl003]

Who knows. It doesn't impact me. Maybe they don't trust Canadians. Here's a part of the note.

Regarding this notice, I've run the simulation to see how my margin would change. It went up 10-15% depending on how I structured my options. Interestingly, it did not negatively affect short puts. Seems to be affecting long calls more than shares (always has, now just worse). Regardless, I'm moving my money to TOS. IBKR lost me as a client.

 

[asburgers]

Regarding this notice, I've run the simulation to see how my margin would change. It went up 10-15% depending on how I structured my options. Interestingly, it did not negatively affect short puts. Seems to be affecting long calls more than shares (always has, now just worse). Regardless, I'm moving my money to TOS. IBKR lost me as a client.

I'm not a fan of IBKR/Peterffy either but there aren't any better alternatives for me.

 

[lklundin]

I'm as happy as the next guy to take the media to task for their misdeeds, however that being said I blame the company for providing specs that quite frankly were suspect.

I mean, when a company with assumedly competent engineering talent introduces a new "800V pack architecture that allows for 350KW charging" do you really expect any media other than the niche that do technical deep-dives to even understand much of what that means other than to glom on to the "that means 80% charge in 20 minutes!" story?

Absolutely. Porsche's 800V wiring ("architecture") is just a red herring, distracting from the very high charge-rate (3.75/h), that people here (e.g. Karen) immediately latched onto. Now their predictions of issues with battery degradation are coming true. For comparison, at 250 kW supercharging the 80kWh Model3 has a charge-rate of 250kW/80kWh = 3.125/h, so the Taycan is 20% above that - and may not have a battery management system as sophisticated as Tesla's (that will for example precondition the battery prior to supercharging).

 

[Nocturnal]

Even better- use someone ELSES $ at 2% or less.

Then repay it with inflation devalued $ in the future.

Allegedly there's a few countries where buying a Tesla with BTC would not be taxable on the gains, if that's true and Tesla opens BTC ordering there, that MIGHT make sense- but otherwise I can't imagine why anybody would trade a supposedly "deflationary store of value" for a car rather than getting an at/near inflation cash loan .

It's more free press for Tesla, but it'd require a lot of weirdness to have any material impact on anything.

It's exactly the same thing as selling TSLA to buy a car. Only now you can see it as just trading in TSLA to buy a car instead of going to cash and then buying. Personally I have a target amount of BTC that I'm holding and have a ladder plan to sell as it appreciates. It's possible one of those tranches will be around when I take order for my CT so I might just pay for it that way.

Absolutely. Porsche's 800V wiring ("architecture") is just a red herring, distracting from the very high charge-rate (3.75/h), that people here (e.g. Karen) immediately latched onto. Now their predictions of issues with battery degradation are coming true. For comparison, at 250 kW supercharging the 80kWh Model3 has a charge-rate of 250kW/80kWh = 3.125/h, so the Taycan is 20% above that - and may not have a battery management system as sophisticated as Tesla's (that will for example precondition the battery prior to supercharging).

It's almost like there are always trade offs.

 

[Opus BC fan]

TSLA is showing more resilience than I expected this week (with the current macro and FUD environment). I have increasing optimism for the medium term. Still holding some dry powder just in case...

 

[dl003]

I'm not a fan of IBKR/Peterffy either but there aren't any better alternatives for me.

I'm taking a leap of faith and will report back on TOS. Well, I emailed their margin risk department and asked for some estimates. Theirs is definitely lower than IBKR.
IBKR is simply not TSLA-friendly. It specifically targets TSLA owners and has raised the requirement about 3 times since I got on last year. Unacceptable. Don't approve me for leveraged trading and not allow me to manage my own risks.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm taking a leap of faith and will report back on TOS. Well, I emailed their margin risk department and asked for some estimates. Theirs is definitely lower than IBKR.
IBKR is simply not TSLA-friendly. It specifically targets TSLA owners and has raised the requirement about 3 times since I got on last year. Unacceptable. Don't approve me for leveraged trading and not allow me to manage my own risks.

Are you on portfolio margin or Reg T margin? (goes for @asburgers as well)