Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

My IRA is starting to look like a Cathie Wood fan account.
View attachment 649331

Mine just looks like a small ARK fund.

 

[asburgers]

People stop for stop signs?!?!

You are supposed to yield.

 

[Artful Dodger]

CNBC article:


So, Lexus is aiming, by 2025, to be behind where Tesla is today was Jan 10, 2020. Got it. HODL.

FTFY (remember the Motortrend nonstop drive from L.A. to SFO via I-5 in a Model S Raven?)

Why Teslas still go so much further than other electric cars | WaPo (2020-01-10)

"Tesla's long-range Model S promises to drive roughly 370 miles without stopping for a charge — about the distance from San Francisco to Los Angeles.​

Cheers!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Bloomberg: Big Oil's Secret World of Trading

Very interesting read, it'll help you understand the source of Tesla FUD, especially in the context of the video Curt Renz posts of Jim Cramer telling an interviewer how his hedge fund moved stock prices around with the help from mainstream media. If you can't connect the dots, there's no help for you, you'll always be moaning about the constant Tesla FUD from CNBS and other mainstream media players. Big Oil makes billions each year just from their trading divisions alone; no better example of chronic insider trading on the planet. Did you know Shell actually started as an oil trader in London in the 19th century, and only later got into production? I didn't.

I'll leave this fun tidbit:
"Last year, for example, Shell’s traders realized that the spreading coronavirus pandemic would have a catastrophic impact on international travel. They decided to bet that demand for jet fuel would collapse. It was a wager almost no other trader in the market could make on the scale that Shell did: Jet fuel is a niche market, dominated by refineries and airlines, and the market for jet fuel derivatives isn’t liquid enough for most traders to bet on easily.

But Shell was well poised. It owns the Pernis refinery in Rotterdam—the largest in Europe, each day pumping out enough gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to keep half of the cars, trucks, and planes in the Netherlands moving. It supplies jet fuel to Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport.

In early 2020, before air travel shrank, Shell’s traders tweaked Pernis’s production, cutting out jet fuel entirely while increasing output of other refined products. Shell still had contracts to supply jet fuel, however, so the company was left with a big short position: It would have to buy jet fuel in the market to deliver to its customers, whatever the price, if the company’s traders were wrong about the pandemic. If the price went up, Shell stood to lose millions.

Of course, the traders weren’t wrong. Jet fuel demand soon plunged 90% in northwestern Europe. Across Europe, prices fell from $666 a ton at the beginning of the year to $125 a ton by late April. “We could buy jet fuel, make money on that particular trade, and then again reconstitute the products coming out of the refinery to make money elsewhere,” Shell’s van Beurden explained in an earnings call with investors in July. “That’s no ordinary trading. That is actually optimizing market positions that we know better than anybody how to take advantage of.”

Shell didn’t disclose how much money it made on that single trade, but people familiar with the company said that in just the second quarter of 2020, the jet fuel traders made as much as they usually do in a whole year."

This all sounds exactly as expected to me, and I don't mean as good or bad, just the natural effect of insiders having additional knowledge and trading on it.

I don't see any difference between what Shell did and what Tesla is doing with battery storage and autobidder. Autobidder forecasts the need for electricity and optimises inputs/outputs accordingly - just like the refinery.

 

[johnm6875]

Washington Post reporter:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1376771960688898048

Didn't say "unfounded" speculation. I'll take that for a definite >0%.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, they really did it. This is our biggest competition. Voltswagen.

Volkswagen pulls name-change stunt after it backfires on social media

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Volkswagen AG's U.S. unit apologized on Wednesday after a false statement it issued about a name change was widely slammed on social media.

www.reuters.com

The German automaker, which has operated in the United States since 1955, said on Twitter: “We know, 66, is a unusual age to change your name, but we’ve always been young at heart but after being caught polluting on a massive scale and covering it up, we wanted to remind people we are now a new, changed company."

It seems VW has an honesty problem. I had to fix it for them.

 

[elasalle]

So are the EV credits (if any ??) gonna be retroactive, immediate or need legislation to pass from all 3 chambers before being effective?

 

[Cherry Wine]

So are the EV credits (if any ??) gonna be retroactive, immediate or need legislation to pass from all 3 chambers before being effective?

Irrespective of whether or not they are retroactive or immediate, they will need to be passed in the form of legislation.

 

[asburgers]

This all sounds exactly as expected to me, and I don't mean as good or bad, just the natural effect of insiders having additional knowledge and trading on it.

I don't see any difference between what Shell did and what Tesla is doing with battery storage and autobidder. Autobidder forecasts the need for electricity and optimises inputs/outputs accordingly - just like the refinery.

The difference is that auto-bidder does not control supply with the refinery.

What Shell did was switch refinery runs to other products, which improved their short position. I can't say if that is legal or not, but compliance must have cleared that strategy. Auto-bidder has no such luxury.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I am actually starting to think that ARKX is a pretty good diversification fund for me.

If Netflix buys Starlink and Deere gets the Mars/Boring tie-up contract, I will crown Aunt Cathie "Queen of the Investing Galaxy".

 

[EVortex]

You'll be back for more. Goals were made to be surpassed.

Yes, we usually want more. I was purely a HODLer and did not trade options prior to this year, but decided to learn all I could about options from this and other TMC threads and outside sources. I finally felt comfortable enough to try some DOTM covered calls and developed a hybrid short and middle term strategy for generating more dry powder for buying additional shares. I have been able to pick up 200 more and have not had any called away (yet). The keys for me have been to not get too greedy and pay attention to timing on everything TSLA related.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1376894692114190341

10k incentives will not last without a cap. That's 8.5 billion dollars worth of incentives to Tesla this year, 15 billion dollars next year. This does not include other car manufactures. The number will hit 200 billion/year by 2028, 300 billion by 2030. All said and done, by 2030 U.S would have given Tesla more incentive combined than the pentagon would spend in a year.

 

[tschmidty]

So are the EV credits (if any ??) gonna be retroactive, immediate or need legislation to pass from all 3 chambers before being effective?

Probably not, but possibly retroactive for this tax year if they do end up existing.

And there are only two chambers it has to pass FWIW.

 

[wipster]

0

People stop for stop signs?!?!

Depends on the country...

 

[CLK350]

Re Biden's $T1 bailout plan, it is really peanuts compared to the negatively useful (meaning wasted, except for the few bangers and the well funded ones) ... Remember the secret 2008 bailout of the major banks by the Feds?

" .. the same three Wall Street banks that received the lion’s share of the Fed’s secret bailout money during the financial crisis of 2007 to 2010. As the chart below from the government’s eventual audit of the Fed indicates, Citigroup received $2.5 trillion cumulatively from the Fed; Morgan Stanley received $2.04 trillion cumulatively; Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch received $1.9 trillion cumulatively while Bank of America itself received another $1.3 trillion in cumulative loans. .. "

These banks received yet another bailout recently - well, let's see the the bright side of things, it can only get better now, right?

We (the US) used to export our paper dollars for cheap natural resources /labor and loans for "beneficial" infrastructure big jobs. Now we're exporting same poverty to the US middle+/- class. Here's to hoping these funds will not all end up in pork barrel.

It's all great fun watching this circus, too. Luckily we (who have the luxury of having time to peruse this TMC forum) are not directly affected.
So as the saying "goes plus ca change .. " aka " the more it changes the more it stays the same " or something like that.
Like, are these good ole S3XY adverts good or bad ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1376970879691804677

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

10k incentives will not last without a cap. That's 8.5 billion dollars worth of incentives to Tesla this year, 15 billion dollars next year. This does not include other car manufactures. The number will hit 200 billion/year by 2028, 300 billion by 2030. All said and done, by 2030 U.S would have given Tesla more incentive combined than the pentagon would spend in a year.

Absolutely going to be a phase out time period......just not on sales. I would be surprised if the new EV tax credit doesn't phase out in 5-7 years time for all auto makers. Most likely 5 years cap.

 

[kengchang]

10k incentives will not last without a cap. That's 8.5 billion dollars worth of incentives to Tesla this year, 15 billion dollars next year. This does not include other car manufactures. The number will hit 200 billion/year by 2028, 300 billion by 2030. All said and done, by 2030 U.S would have given Tesla more incentive combined than the pentagon would spend in a year.

Tesla does not deliver 100% of the production in the USA.

 

[thx1139]

10k incentives will not last without a cap. That's 8.5 billion dollars worth of incentives to Tesla this year, 15 billion dollars next year. This does not include other car manufactures. The number will hit 200 billion/year by 2028, 300 billion by 2030. All said and done, by 2030 U.S would have given Tesla more incentive combined than the pentagon would spend in a year.

8.5B is 850K cars sold in the USA alone. Could simply put a sunset on it once EV are over 50% of auto marketshare.

 

[StealthP3D]

I see an oral surgeon today. Dentists are my worst fear as I had two sets of permanent teeth for my front 8 upper teeth, so as a 9 yr old they started pulling two permanent teeth every 2 months. Except on the third visit the dentist pulled a wrong tooth. He pulled the second permanent tooth of the last tooth he pulled. And then performed a root canal on it outside my head and then jammed it back up into the socket... So I sorta have a right to be afraid of ALL dentists.
So the good part.... the news broke last night about the Tesla/Toyota deal. I went to bed morose over having to see an oral surgeon today, and yet was able to shift my thoughts to TSLA rising in value. And even though it didn't happen it did get me to sleep some (I won't go further and tell you the dreams I had..well my two man baseball team beat Bo Jackson's was one of them).
So 1:30PM Eastern time I am in the chair. If the stock goes up it was me...I know it is the opposite end of the digestive tract, but still...and this is only a consult but I expect a very negative diagnosis (Not cancer just an implant), and my BP is already elevated.
Perhaps when they do the extraction I can get a bump for the team.

It looks like they were late getting you seated. So they didn't get down to business until 2:02 pm EDT.
Thanks for taking one for the team!

 

[kanweg]

Meanwhile in the Netherlands

Tesla sales were negligible this quarter (and a drop in the bucket for Tesla’s world wide sales) but in March Model 3 seems to manage to get the top spot with 257 so far (29 March), id4 second with 211 and Niro 3rd with 143. ID3 is 16th with 23.

Of 18194 person cars sold in March, 1521 were BEVs (8.3%).