Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tschmidty]

That article calls the original $7,500 tax credit a "rebate", making me question whether the $100B in "rebates" is a point-of-sale rebate, or a tax credit.

I would almost certainly guess tax credit. Much easier to manage as well as much easier to make retroactive over this tax year. I can't recall a point-of-sale government rebate but perhaps someone else can.

 

[Thekiwi]

$100 Billion / $10k per car rebate = 10 million cars

 

[Knightshade]

I would almost certainly guess tax credit. Much easier to manage as well as much easier to make retroactive over this tax year. I can't recall a point-of-sale government rebate but perhaps someone else can.

Biden specifically said point of sale rebate in the speech.

(that can always change of course). IIRC some of the state EV rebates were point of sale too.

 

[Don TLR]

To those thinking there will be lots of cheap Model 3’s around, I’ve been trying to find a bargain as the wife is frugal and I can’t find one.
this article confirms my findings. I’ve been stuck at home for over a year but do Plan to have to back in a few months so maybe I can get the timing right for a red Y as a commuter til the truck gets here.

A Tesla Model 3 invasion is starting in the US’ second-hand auto segment

“Teslas tend to keep their value longer than typical electric cars, with recent data from vehicle search engine iSeeCars.com concluding that the Tesla Model 3 is actually not a good car to purchase second hand for budget-conscious car buyers. As per the firm’s data, a good number of used Model 3s in the market are priced very close to their brand new cost, with some cars in the market being only $923 cheaper than their newly-produced counterparts.”

 

[Pras]

$100 Billion / $10k per car rebate = 10 million cars

Tesla should aim to grab at least 25% of that sales.

 

[willow_hiller]

Biden specifically said point of sale rebate in the speech.

(that can always change of course). IIRC some of the state EV rebates were point of sale too.

If it works like the point-of-sale tax credit in the Electric Cars Act of 2021, it's technically a tax credit that can be assigned to dealership/manufacturer/bank (in exchange for an immediate rebate). The interesting thing is the bill doesn't say the dealership/manufacturer/bank needs to give the entire value of the tax credit to the purchaser as a rebate, but it does say they need to disclose the full value of the credit to them.

 

[dhanson865]

To those thinking there will be lots of cheap Model 3’s around, I’ve been trying to find a bargain as the wife is frugal and I can’t find one.
this article confirms my findings. I’ve been stuck at home for over a year but do Plan to have to back in a few months so maybe I can get the timing right for a red Y as a commuter til the truck gets here.

A Tesla Model 3 invasion is starting in the US’ second-hand auto segment

“Teslas tend to keep their value longer than typical electric cars, with recent data from vehicle search engine iSeeCars.com concluding that the Tesla Model 3 is actually not a good car to purchase second hand for budget-conscious car buyers. As per the firm’s data, a good number of used Model 3s in the market are priced very close to their brand new cost, with some cars in the market being only $923 cheaper than their newly-produced counterparts.”

if you want another site to compare numbers I've been watching the curve at

Tesla Model 3 Price Trends and Pricing Insights

Track Tesla Model 3 price trends and get real-time, industry leading Tesla Model 3 pricing insights.

www.cargurus.com

vs

Chevrolet Bolt EV Price Trends and Pricing Insights

Track Chevrolet Bolt EV price trends and get real-time, industry leading Chevrolet Bolt EV pricing insights.

www.cargurus.com

vs

Nissan LEAF Price Trends and Pricing Insights

Track Nissan LEAF price trends and get real-time, industry leading Nissan LEAF pricing insights.

www.cargurus.com

you just have to turn off the "car gurus index" and turn on the years you care about (2018 or whatever)

as you can see the Model 3 graph hardly moves

 

[Nocturnal]

These pre-built SC stations are just another example of Tesla being creative. Why spend the hassle adding footers and running wiring on site when you can just offload the whole deal by truck? Then just plug into the main and you are off to the races.

Tesla rolls out clever prefab Supercharger model for faster installations

One of the best things about Tesla is that it never stays still. Even if something is already working, and even if the company is already enjoying a wide lead against its competitors, Tesla still tends to improve its operations. This was evident in the company’s ongoing Supercharger buildout...

www.teslarati.com

 

[elasalle]

These pre-built SC stations are just another example of Tesla being creative. Why spend the hassle adding footers and running wiring on site when you can just offload the whole deal by truck? Then just plug into the main and you are off to the races.

Tesla rolls out clever prefab Supercharger model for faster installations

One of the best things about Tesla is that it never stays still. Even if something is already working, and even if the company is already enjoying a wide lead against its competitors, Tesla still tends to improve its operations. This was evident in the company’s ongoing Supercharger buildout...

www.teslarati.com

$15 billion to build 500,000 new electric vehicle charging stations

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Tesla should aim to grab at least 25% of that sales.

25? They've got 80% now. I think it's quite possible that Tesla sells 5 million cars in the US before the rest sells 5 million together. So 50%.

Actually don't they have over 80% now since some of the other 20% are not made in America.

Doubling this year and next and then 50% per year.

2021 500k
2022 1000k
2023 1500k
2024 2250k
-------------
total 5250k

Anyone think the rest can build 5 million thru fall of 2024?

Edit: was probably a little optimistic on the starting number for 2021 so lowered it to 500k

 

[Tim S]

I would almost certainly guess tax credit. Much easier to manage as well as much easier to make retroactive over this tax year. I can't recall a point-of-sale government rebate but perhaps someone else can.

Biden's plan includes both...

Biden proposes $174 billion investment in electric vehicles

President Joe Biden has unveiled an outline of his infrastructure plan, and it includes a proposed $174 billion investment in...

electrek.co

"It will give consumers point of sale rebates and tax incentives to buy American-made EVs, while ensuring that these vehicles are affordable for all families and manufactured by workers with good jobs."

(Also note it says "good jobs", not union jobs.)

 

[madodel]

Tesla should aim to grab at least 25% of that sales.

With all the millions of ID4s, Bolts, Hummers and MachEs do you think there will be anything left for Tesla?

 

[Tim S]

They held the call the third week of the month twice last year (Q2/Q3). Q4 is usually delayed since it accompanies the full-year report, so I wouldn't place much emphasis on that date. I think there's a better than even chance it's on the 20th or 21st this year.

Good point, 2020 Q2 was the 22nd and Q3 was the 21st. I guess there is a good chance it will be on the 21st this quarter.

I still don't think they would move it up to Tuesday just for the date joke.

 

[lafrisbee]

25? They've got 80% now. I think it's quite possible that Tesla sells 5 million cars in the US before the rest sells 5 million together. So 50%.

Actually don't they have over 80% now since some of the other 20% are not made in America.

Doubling this year and next and then 50% per year.

2021 500k
2022 1000k
2023 1500k
2024 2250k
-------------
total 5250k

Anyone think the rest can build 5 million thru fall of 2024?

Edit: was probably a little optimistic on the starting number for 2021 so lowered it to 500k

You just did the napkin math that is going to sink this Rebate.

 

[Nocturnal]

Biden specifically said point of sale rebate in the speech.

(that can always change of course). IIRC some of the state EV rebates were point of sale too.

Like you said, anything can happen but it would be really stupid to continue to favor higher income earners in that way. A credit would be a harder sell in today's political climate.

 

[PeterJA]

Smear campaign alert:

I just received an email from couragecampaign.org full of outrageous accusations against Elon and urging me to sign their petition "calling on the Tesla board to hold Musk accountable." They want Kathleen Wilson-Thompson and James Murdoch to "resign from the board in protest and publicize Musk’s misdeeds."

The accusations are cherrypicked misrepresentations from several sources that are themselves slanted hit-pieces. So the slanting of slanting gets pretty bad.

I don't have time to sort out all the BS from the few facts and send corrections to Courage Campaign, but maybe someone else has time and interest. I do know I will never trust them again and blindly sign their petitions.

Spoiler: The awful email

​

Peter, Elon Musk, founder and CEO of Tesla and Space X, is now neck and neck with Jeff Bezos for wealthiest person in the world, with $160 billion in net worth. (1) He also seems to be in a race with Bezos to see who can best exploit their workers and avoid community accountability. Elon Musk has thus far escaped the public spotlight for putting his workers at risk during COVID-19. That changes now. Will you sign our petition calling on the Tesla board to hold Musk accountable? In May 2020, Musk defied Alameda County’s shelter-in-place orders and reopened the Tesla factory in Fremont with inadequate COVID-19 protections for workers.(2) By July, more than 130 Tesla workers tested positive for COVID-19, and 1,550 had been exposed (approximately 15% of the Fremont factory's workforce).(3) Tesla terminated workers who did not want to return to the line. By December, the number of reported cases was up to 450.(4) This isn’t new: Musk has long tried to cover up the unsafe and unhealthy working conditions in his factories, even going so far as to underreport workplace injuries.(5) Elon Musk has shown he doesn’t feel accountable to anyone, so it’s time we put the pressure on him to stop exploiting Tesla’s workers and stop bullying local governments for his own profit. Two members of Tesla’s board of directors -- Kathleen Wilson-Thompson and James Murdoch -- are seen as leaders with integrity and who seem to believe in truth, public health, and the safety of workers. But it’s clear they haven’t been able to rein in Musk, as he continues to put workers at risk and spread misinformation about COVID-19. They should resign from the board in protest and publicize Musk’s misdeeds. Sign a petition to call on Kathleen Wilson-Thompson and James Murdoch to stop providing cover for Elon Musk and resign from Tesla’s board. Stand with Tesla workers and send a message to Elon Musk that he can and will be held accountable for profiting from worker exploitation. We refuse to let billionaires and out-of-control corporate power defeat workers’ rights. In solidarity, Irene, along with Angela, Annie, Caitlin, Deepthi, Jay, Lindsay, LisaMarie, Molly, Raquel, and Scottie (the Courage team) Footnotes: 1. Elon Musk 2. Elon Musk stays mute as 130+ Tesla employees test positive for COVID-19 3. Elon Musk stays mute as 130+ Tesla employees test positive for COVID-19 4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...ng-musks-defiant-reopening-county-data-shows/ 5. Tesla says its factory is safer. But it left injuries off the books | Reveal

Like what we do? Chip in to help fund the fight for a more progressive nation. Or find us on Facebook or Twitter.​

One could spend time refuting each false or misleading accusation in that polemic, but upon reflection for 7 seconds, it occurs to me there is a shorter answer to "We refuse to let billionaires and out-of-control corporate power defeat workers’ rights."

To wit:

The idea that all billionaires are the same is about as stupid as thinking all black people are the same, or all Jews, women, LGBTQ folks, or other prejudices that progressives profess to abhor.

Charles Koch is invested in destroying civilization. Elon Musk is invested in saving it. If Elon wanted to exploit his workers, he would not give all of them company stock, a form of compensation that other autoworkers do not enjoy. If Elon wanted only money, he would have retired to a private island at age 31, instead of investing his last dollar in a company that has forced the auto industry to follow it toward sustainability.

People who don't distinguish between Koch and Musk are either stupid or ignorant or disingenuous. Unfortunately, there are a lot of stupid people in the world... of all races, religions, genders, sex preferences, and political parties.

 

[Singuy]

$15 billion to build 500,000 new electric vehicle charging stations

That's 30k a charging station, so sounds like a subsidies vs government building charging stations...unless the 500k includes a boatload of level 2 chargers.

 

[MP3Mike]

That's 30k a charging station, so sounds like a subsidies vs government building charging stations...unless the 500k includes a boatload of level 2 chargers.

Depends what they mean by "station". For example in the past permits have shown that an 8 "station"/stall Supercharger site cost about $250k. Which is only $10k more than your $30k/station figure. (And costs have likely come down a lot since then.)

 

[StealthP3D]

Like you said, anything can happen but it would be really stupid to continue to favor higher income earners in that way. A credit would be a harder sell in today's political climate.

New car buyers ARE higher income earners. That's exactly who they are targeting. And the entry level Tesla costs less than the average new vehicle purchase!

 

[Singuy]

Depends what they mean by "station". For example in the past permits have shown that an 8 "station"/stall Supercharger site cost about $250k. Which is only $10k more than your $30k/station figure. (And costs have likely come down a lot since then.)

ah I thought they were 100k a piece