Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Johan]

Yeah, dude. Manufacturing at volume is hard. I’ll believe it when I see it and not a second before. Keep wasting your money on commercial spots. There’s a reason Tesla almost didn’t make it multiple times and why prior to Tesla every single new try in the automotive space failed for many decades. Just because Tesla showed everyone how to do it, doesn’t mean they can do it.

Agreed.

First of all: 577 ≠ volume.
Second: It can be done ≠ I/we can do it.

 

[Singuy]

Peter Rawlinson on CNBC just refused to confirm 2022 sales projections. All he was willing to say is that they're planning to deliver 577 cars this year. Exactly 577. Absolutely bizarre.

Probably because out of the thousands of unique parts, there's enough to make 577 cars with them this year. Even tho they have 2000 windows and 4000 wipers, they only have 577 of ________ this year.

 

[Unpilot]

So I told my SO that I'm going to walk around now with my phone on speaker and talk loudly about my margin call.

She said she would wait in the car.

Can you imagine?

 

[Accident]

TA doesn't really matter when you have big events in the calendar. Everyone is waiting on the CPI data to be released tomorrow. Market will react sharply to the report.

 

[thx1139]

Probably because out of the thousands of unique parts, there's enough to make 577 cars with them this year. Even tho they have 2000 windows and 4000 wipers, they only have 577 of ________ this year.

Isnt 577 basically making cars by hand?

 

[lascavarian]

I just bought a boat so if that hurts me there then I'm gonna be pissed if my TSLA doesn't gain.

Don’t worry, be happy! They are going to un-ransom the pipeline with Dogecoins. HaHa

 

[oldTAVguy]

Isnt 577 basically making cars by hand?

About 2 a work day. Not a lot of production volume for that large factory. So yes hand made, slowly.

 

[Singuy]

Isnt 577 basically making cars by hand?

They are probably going to use automation. When you have specific numbers like this just means there's a part limited step as actually assembly time varies and can't be predicted to the exact car number.

Welcome to dealing with tier 4 suppliers during unprecedented parts shortages.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Isnt 577 basically making cars by hand?

Yeah, that's about two cars per workday.
So, a small boutique operation with ~100 employees building them by hand, like the good old days when sports cars were hand-crafted. OK, fine.

Wait, Lucid has 2000 employees? WHAT the actual Frack?
What are the other 1900 doing? PowerPoint presentations? Investor meetings? How can that many people do that little?

To compare, Tesla has 70K employees doing - lets just do lazy math, and say 700.000 cars in 2021.
That is 10 cars per employee per year.

On the other hand a Lucid employee only has to make 1/4 of a car. Per year. That is absolutely crazy. That is not sustainable long term
To compare, Tesla employees make at least 40 times more cars per employee than Lucid.

Edit:
Lets hope Lucid can scale soon so more ICE cars can be replaced.
I hesitate to use the word scam about Lucid, but ... those numbers cannot work for a business that is actually sound.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Weird chart today. Someone sure picked up some cheap shares between 9 and 10 am. Wasn’t me, I was at the fitness center. Forgot to set my automated knife-catcher.

 

[woodisgood]

Totally won't, but it might cement them as the one and only competitor to Tesla. I'm pulling for Rivian though!

Rivian has the best chance to scale - mostly because they have the most stable financial backing - but it still won’t be a walk in the park. Believe it when we see it.

 

[thx1139]

Yeah, that's about two cars per workday.
So, a small boutique operation with ~100 employees building them by hand, like the good old days when sports cars were hand-crafted. OK, fine.

Wait, Lucid has 2000 employees? WHAT the actual Frack?
What are the other 1900 doing? PowerPoint presentations? Investor meetings? How can that many people do that little?

To compare, Tesla has 70K employees doing - lets just do lazy math, and say 700.000 cars in 2021.
That is 10 cars per employee per year.

On the other hand a Lucid employee only has to make 1/4 of a car. Per year. That is absolutely crazy.
To compare, Tesla employees make at least 40 times more cars per employee than Lucid.

I hesitate to use the word scam about Lucid, but ... those numbers cannot work for a business that is actually sound.

Dont mean to say that. After all the Model S at one time was probably at that rate. Thing is that at this point Lucid is not a competitor. It is a boutique car that in a couple years may be mass producing the Lucid Air and competing against the next generation Model S.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Yeah, that's about two cars per workday.
So, a small boutique operation with ~100 employees building them by hand, like the good old days when sports cars were hand-crafted. OK, fine.

Wait, Lucid has 2000 employees? WHAT the actual Frack?
What are the other 1900 doing? PowerPoint presentations? Investor meetings? How can that many people do that little?

To compare, Tesla has 70K employees doing - lets just do lazy math, and say 700.000 cars in 2021.
That is 10 cars per employee per year.

On the other hand a Lucid employee only has to make 1/4 of a car. Per year. That is absolutely crazy.
To compare, Tesla employees make at least 40 times more cars per employee than Lucid.

I hesitate to use the word scam about Lucid, but ... those numbers cannot work for a business that is actually sound.

There's an operating leverage aspect for employees too. I'm not sure how many people Tesla had when they were making five hundred roadsters per year, but i bet it was more than fifty.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Rivian has the best chance to scale - mostly because they have the most stable financial backing - but it still won’t be a walk in the park. Believe it when we see it.

Rivian and Lucid will both be going through their "production hells" right when all four Tesla factories are cranking. They waited two years too long.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Gali has a goodbye video to v8.2 of FSD. I wonder if he got the download for v9 and wanted to do a video before he goes under NDA. Have there been any similar rumours/videos?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gali has a goodbye video to v8.2 of FSD. I wonder if he got the download for v9 and wanted to do a video before he goes under NDA. Have there been any similar rumours/videos?

In terms of the V9 being out there and under NDA, yeah I've heard it is. They could be expanding it to more FSD Beta users. Last I heard it was almost entirely Tesla employees using V9

 

[StealthP3D]

Totally won't, but it might cement them as the one and only competitor to Tesla. I'm pulling for Rivian though!

Tesla's competition is primarily ICE cars and I don't see that changing for at least several years. I know I've said this before multiple times but it's easy to be led astray by all the FUD that "the competition is coming". A basic premise of this FUD is that EV's can only fulfill the needs of a small subset of all drivers and therefore the competition for EV's can only be other EV's.

As we all know, a modern EV can fulfill the needs of well over 90% of all ICE drivers out there and the number of people that cannot be served by an EV is shrinking every year as DC fast chargers spread into more nooks and crannies.

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, that's about two cars per workday.
So, a small boutique operation with ~100 employees building them by hand, like the good old days when sports cars were hand-crafted. OK, fine.

Wait, Lucid has 2000 employees? WHAT the actual Frack?
What are the other 1900 doing? PowerPoint presentations? Investor meetings? How can that many people do that little?

To compare, Tesla has 70K employees doing - lets just do lazy math, and say 700.000 cars in 2021.
That is 10 cars per employee per year.

On the other hand a Lucid employee only has to make 1/4 of a car. Per year. That is absolutely crazy.
To compare, Tesla employees make at least 40 times more cars per employee than Lucid.

I hesitate to use the word scam about Lucid, but ... those numbers cannot work for a business that is actually sound.

I can't figure out why folks here are acting like this 577 thing is new info?

Lucid Motors in $4.4 Billion SPAC Deal With Churchill Capital – 24/7 Wall St.

EV maker Lucid Motors has agreed to combine with a fund managed by Churchill Capital in a reverse merger with an acquisition value of $11.75 billion.

247wallst.com

That's from February and cites the 577 vehicles thing.

Lucid has altered its original plan to release its top-of-the-line $161,500 Lucid Air Dream Edition in 2021 and will focus its efforts this year on completing its Arizona assembly plant to deliver 577 vehicles this year. The company expects to grow volume to more than 20,000 in 2022 and to nearly 49,000 in 2023.

The company expects to make its first non-GAAP profit of $632 million in 2025. After four years of net losses, it estimates to total around $4 billion in the next four years.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Starting to feel 2018ish again. I should have warned you all yesterday when I upped my relative share count to its highest ever that the big dip would come today!

Guess I'll just do a repeat of what I did in 2018, just be patient and manage emotions. (Back then it was knowing only from this forum that Model 3 production was, in fact, ramping.)

 

[Singuy]

Starting to feel 2018ish again. I should have warned you all yesterday when I upped my relative share count to its highest ever that the big dip would come today!

Guess I'll just do a repeat of what I did in 2018, just be patient and manage emotions. (Back then it was knowing only from this forum that Model 3 production was, in fact, ramping.)

Ha, you mean starting to feel like March 2021 again..lol.